Now that the United States has struck Venezuela and there is already speculation about a war between Denmark and the USA, one could assume that Novo, as a Danish company, could at least be a short-term sufferer as the markets begin to reassess Novo’s future cash flows. If the USA were to invade Greenland, Novo’s business in the States could cease entirely. The situation feels absurd and is unlikely to happen, but in my opinion, the risk is not non-existent (black swan).
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True, some of the threat has likely already been priced into Danish companies. This is getting a bit speculative, but attacking a NATO founding member would be such a shock to the current world order that the entire Western market would go down with the bathwater.
It’s hard to believe the US would attack/occupy Greenland, but it could try to otherwise pressure Denmark into it or grant the US more freedom of operation in the region.
The US could, for example, ban Danish companies from the US, but that would be strange as well. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that 
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Similarly, my gut feeling is that the US will undoubtedly reach some kind of deal with Denmark & Greenland, but it won’t be the kind that would cause NATO to fragment internally or lead Denmark into an armed conflict. Regarding the thread’s topic, NOVO will likely bounce back from these levels like a cork once that understanding is reached & oral weight loss pills have gained a larger global foothold. Could it happen within this year?
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Making investment decisions based on some random person’s tweets can lead to poor returns. I suspect that the pressure regarding Greenland is related to making sure Russia and China realize they should stay away. Of course, you won’t hear this from the Finnish media. Politics aside.
The Trump administration is pushing for lower prices, which isn’t in the shareholder’s best interest, but there is an opportunity for Novo to make a “deal” there as well.
I’ll remain a shareholder.
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Novo’s US public affairs head has left to seek greener pastures outside the company.
A quick Google search reveals they were a Biden-era individual. Connecting the dots, is this / the earlier hiring of Greg Miley as head of corp. affairs an attempt to better adapt to the current US administration’s ways of operating?
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This hasn’t been posted here yet, but a win for Novo in China.
This article essentially means for Novo that China’s supreme court confirmed the validity of the semaglutide patent in China. It reduces the risk of patent protection being overturned before its actual expiration and opening the door for “fast” copies/generics.
In my opinion, very significant news.
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Distribution news: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-pharmacy-expands-access-wegovy-140500142.html
Amazon Pharmacy provides fast, convenient home delivery of the Wegovy® pill to all 50 states, and Same-Day Delivery is available to nearly half of customers across the United States.
The Wegovy pill will be available at Amazon Pharmacy.
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The article below explains how this year could mark a turning point in the GLP-1 market, as new pills challenge injections. For the most part, the story contains familiar information for those who have followed this thread or Novo’s progress in general, but it’s a good general overview/forecast for this year regarding these weight-loss pills and otherwise.
Novo has already launched its oral product, and Eli Lilly will soon launch its own. As noted in the thread, pills are a more convenient way to take the medication than injections, and they also often end up being cheaper. Pills can bring in more customers specifically due to ease of use and also from those who are needle-phobic. Pills not only improve accessibility, but they can also significantly lower the threshold for treatment.
The article also emphasizes that injections will, of course, maintain their place as the most effective form of treatment, but these oral drugs are estimated to take at least about a quarter of the market by 2030. Currently, analysts predict the value of the pill market will rise to about 20 billion.
Competition is heating up as Pfizer and AstraZeneca are also developing their own products, which naturally increases competition even further.
Oral drugs may pull new patients into the obesity treatment market.
“I believe that this will quite a bit expand the market,” Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC in late December. “We know from our own family members and circles of friends that there are many people who still would not rather take an injection … for this group of people, having a pill option is important.”
Pills could prompt some people to start obesity treatment because “they think it’s somehow more acceptable or approachable” than an injection, said Dr. Caroline Apovian, co-director of the Center for Weight Management and Wellness at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
Key Points
- In 2026, new obesity pills will push the booming GLP-1 market into its next chapter.
- Pills may serve as a more convenient — and in certain cases cheaper — alternative to today’s blockbuster injections that could attract entirely new patients.
- Patients are already getting their hands on the first GLP-1 pill for obesity from Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk, and a rival oral drug from Eli Lilly is slated for a U.S. approval later this year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/10/2026-is-the-year-of-obesity-pills-from-novo-nordisk-eli-lilly-.html
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The author’s bias is revealed in an amusing way. Novo’s pill is clearly more effective, but funnily enough, it is still projected to have a significantly smaller market. Not a day goes by without the American media providing justifications for why Lilly’s drugs are supposedly better.
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Novo Nordisk executive Mike Doustdar estimates that there are as many as 1.5 million users in the United States for GLP-1 copycat drugs compounded by pharmacies themselves. Cheaper and officially unapproved alternatives have been gaining market share; Novo has warned about the safety risks of these products, but at the same time, it has indeed lowered the prices of its own products to meet the competition.
There is this surprising element of a group of companies being able to pass FDA, come and sell unsafe, knock-off products in this market,” he said, adding that Novo continues to fight against such practices.
He said the shift toward compounded drugs, essentially copies of the name-brand drugs, was a key learning for Novo as it reassesses pricing and access strategies for its obesity treatments.
There are no paywalls in the story 
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Posting this here as well, in case anyone missed it: Novo Nordisk’s stock rose nicely today as the new weight-loss pill Wegovy got off to a roaring start in the States.
The initial figures looked really good, and the pill is even outpacing previous injectable drugs in popularity. According to the article, Novo is now making a serious effort to overtake market leader Eli Lilly, although competition is fierce and new challengers are constantly entering the market—some as soon as the coming months.
Key Points
- Shares of Novo Nordisk rose more than 5% on Friday after early prescription data showed an encouraging start to the launch of the company’s new GLP-1 pill for obesity in the U.S.
- In a Friday note, TD Cowen analysts called it a “solid start” but cautioned that they need to see more data to fully assess what early demand is like for the Wegovy pill.
- The initial data is a boost to the Danish drugmaker’s hopes of winning back more market share from its chief rival, Eli Lilly, this year in the booming space for obesity and diabetes drugs.
In a Friday note, Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said the Wegovy pill had around 3,100 prescriptions filled in the first week of the launch, citing IQVIA data for the week ending Jan. 9. Eli Lilly’s popular obesity injection, Zepbound, had around 1,300 prescriptions filled in the first week of its commercial launch, and roughly 8,000 in the second week, he noted. That injection won U.S. approval in late 2023.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/16/novo-nordisk-shares-wegovy-obesity-pill-launch.html
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Hmm… hmm… I wonder what the risk is that as the Greenland dispute heats up emotions, the big boss in the US starts punishing Danish companies?
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This is certainly something every owner of Danish companies has been pondering over the last few months. Personally, I’m leaning toward the view that Trump won’t start punishing individual companies solely based on their country of origin. This would likely be too much for the markets if companies from allied countries were to be punished arbitrarily. It would have to come through legislation in some way, much like in the EU. Chinese companies are a different matter, as China is the US’s primary adversary.
On the other hand, separate tariffs cannot be imposed on individual EU member states because the EU negotiates trade agreements as a single economic area, rather than country by country. In practice, any additional tariffs imposed by Trump would violate the previous EU-US trade agreement, necessitating a renegotiation.
It will likely end up being TACO—at least, that’s what I believe. The Nordic countries, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the UK will not budge on this Greenland issue, and Trump will be left without the island. Trade negotiations may start anew, and the EU might end up with a less favorable deal, but the midterms are approaching in the US, so escalation is also a risk for Trump. This should also serve as leverage for the EU in negotiations. I don’t believe in military action, or at least it’s extremely unlikely. In that case, we would have World War III on our hands, with Europe fighting against the US. The majority of US citizens do NOT support attacking Europe or Greenland against an ally.
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Novo has factories in the US, but of course a stable genius could disregard the fact that they’d be closed if, for instance, the sale of Novo’s products were banned.
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Well, I suppose punishing Novo is possible. On the other hand, Trump has specifically wanted companies to move their production to the United States. How many non-US firms would want to do that in the future if there’s a risk of becoming collateral damage in disputes between world leaders?
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Are there any comments here regarding the collaboration agreement between Aspect Biosystems and Novo Nordisk? It sounded good to me, but I don’t have the professional expertise to evaluate just how good it is.
As a diabetic, it sounds really good that stem cell research might finally be leading to something concrete through this—namely, a cure for type 1 diabetes. A huge market.
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“$NVO 's Oral Wegovy is taking off in the U.S.
New prescriptions jumped from 4,289 → 20,371 in the first two weeks after launch.
For comparison (week 2):
• Wegovy injection: 1,017
• Zepbound (Eli Lilly): 10,026
Insured patients only.”
Edit:
“TRx means total number of scripts/persons that have ordered Wegovy Pill. BUT the data we these weeks is ONLY the physical sale from pharmacies and insurances. It does not include data for all the telehealth where the consumer chooses to get wegovy pill shipped to their address.
And it does not include $NVO own “Telehealth” NovoCare. So, the actual number is larger than wat is reported each Friday. But in xxx weeks those online sales will also be included in the reporting.”
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“Bank of America analysts calculate that the oral version needs about 2,000 prescriptions per week in order for the company to meet 2026 sales estimates.”
It will be interesting to see how much pent-up demand there is in those week 2 figures. Have many been waiting specifically for the pill to arrive on the market?
That ratio, where Wegovy prescriptions are 2x Zepbound’s, sounds very promising. I could also imagine that for telehealth services, the threshold for obtaining a prescription for a pill is lower than for an injection.
EDIT(2):
I checked the Google Trends data again, and searches for Wegovy are on the rise. These are not directly comparable to each other, but rather illustrate the search term’s trend.
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