Nordea can’t yet decide on the dividend to be paid from this year’s upcoming results, can they? That announcement only concerns dividends to be paid during 2026. Emphasis mine:
Nordea’s Board of Directors proposes that for the 2025 financial year, a dividend of 0.96 euros per share be paid. For the 2024 financial year, a dividend of 0.94 euros per share was paid. In addition, the Board proposes that in 2026, a semi-annual dividend be paid, which corresponds to approximately 50 percent of the result for the first half of 2026.
I read it like this:
During 2026, a €0.96 dividend will be paid from the 2025 result
In addition to that, 50% of the H1 result will be paid as an interim dividend during 2026 – likely in the autumn of 2026
And one can speculate that from then on, they will follow the same pattern, i.e.:
Dividend from the H2 2026 result will be paid in early 2027
Dividend from the H1 2027 result will be paid in the autumn of 2027
Now Might Be a Buying Opportunity for Nordea Stock
Nordea opened slightly lower on the Helsinki Stock Exchange. This could provide an opportunity for investors, says Head of Equities Juuso Kenkkilä on Talousaamu.
After all this growth, would there finally be a buying opportunity, especially with ROE at 14% and P/B nearly 1.8? Well, I was wrong when the P/B was lower, but I would still be cautious when valuations are hitting multi-year highs, and not by a small margin compared to history.
Nordea announced Q4 results this morning that were largely in line with our expectations. New sales in asset management and loan demand both developed strongly. The profitability guidance didn’t raise any eyebrows either; as expected, the bank anticipates a return on equity of over 15% for 2026.
Yle has never really been a financial publication anyway, but I already asked the Yle reporter if they didn’t find anything else noteworthy in Nordea’s results announcement besides credit losses in Finland, since that’s what they used for the headline:
Nordea’s guidance is to normally pay 60–70% of earnings as dividends. Any excess is then distributed through share buybacks. Only the dividend to be paid in the autumn from the H1/2026 results was guided to be lower than the normal payout ratio (50%).
Other observations from the financial statements include the decline in EPS being mitigated by share buybacks despite the drop in total earnings. The latest quarter even flipped to growth, although part of that growth is obviously not a testament to the strength of Nordea’s business but a result of share buybacks performed on behalf of shareholders. And as I already warned on another forum, this is not a criticism of buybacks but a wake-up call for those who only follow the numbers to also take the impact of buybacks into account.
Return on equity (ROE) rose only marginally, which I consider good even though the 15% target was not yet reached. Here, too, the impact of buybacks must be considered as a reduction in the denominator. However, the return is realistically good, as the percentage figure hasn’t been improved solely by reducing the equity in the denominator through profit distribution. Equity per share has remained quite stable, considering the buybacks.
Nordea is transitioning to dividends paid multiple times a year elegantly, by increasing the dividend for one year instead of lowering the transition year dividend like Nokia and Sampo did. It’s easy to make the switch when there’s plenty of cash in the coffers.
The credit losses that Yle has been making a fuss about are quite well under control, and they haven’t been hidden too badly under the gradual reversal of credit loss provisions made during the COVID panic.
With this performance, I’m not selling! In the hope of a dividend dip, I might even consider adding more, even though it’s already the largest position in my portfolio. Fortunately, it’s not my only portfolio, so I can accept the overweighting.
This is exactly why it’s worth calculating the impact of the credit loss provision buffer release and share buybacks on the key figures, rather than just staring at the battery of metrics.
Now, the actual figures weren’t really hidden in a big way; instead, that credit loss provision has been systematically released for years. It is, of course, another question how necessary that buffer is in the current situation, when at this rate, there’s enough of it to be released for another 10 years?
It is already known that the dividend will not be 50/50 in the future, but will be weighted towards the spring.
Based on the Capital Markets Day information, Kasper wrote in November:
In the new strategy period, Nordea will switch to a dividend paid twice a year. The first of these includes an installment paid in early autumn, amounting to 50% of the result for the first half of the year. This means that the profit distribution will be slightly more weighted towards the dividend paid in the spring, which, within the target range (60–70% dividend payout ratio), will account for about 60% of the total dividend for the financial year.
a dividend paid at 60–70 percent of the profit for the financial year
a semi-annual dividend including an installment paid after the half-year report in late July or early August, based on a 50 percent share of the profit for the first half of the financial year, and a second installment paid after the Annual General Meeting (AGM)
The dividend will probably be structured next year so that if the 2026 EPS is, say, €1.4, then in spring 2027 they will pay 70 cents and in the autumn 30 cents/share. I’d like to see the share price gather some momentum from below €16. There would be interest to buy at the €15.xx levels.
I’m posting this here as well. UniCredit is a significant peer for Nordea in the eurozone banking sector, although not a direct competitor. Discussion on, among other things, competition in the banking sector, market shares, and consolidation in Europe. UniCredit is an active consolidator and has, over the last couple of years, acquired a 29.9% stake in Germany’s Commerzbank (hoping for a merger) and also tried to buy Banco BPM in a €14bn acquisition, which however fell through in July due to regulatory challenges.
Great company and a good peer. Looks like about 3 years ago the price was at Nordea’s current level, now it’s about €60 higher, looking forward to that .
According to the news summary provided by Finwire (below), Group Technology has over 4,500 employees, so in relation to that, we are talking about approximately 6 percent of its jobs. As I see it, the reduction is understandable, as Nordea has had major IT projects in recent years that have mostly been completed. In this regard, I for one have expected the cost side to decrease.
”Nordea is carrying out a restructuring that means 271 positions will disappear within the bank’s IT department Group Technology. This is reported by the Danish Ekstra Bladet, which has had the information confirmed by the bank via a written statement.
The reductions affect several countries in the Nordic region as well as Poland, but it is not specified how many are affected in Denmark.
According to the bank, the measure is part of a new strategic period to ensure they have the right structure, capacity, and expertise for future needs and long-term growth. Over 4,500 people work within Group Technology.”
It’s quite interesting, as Nordea’s app and services seem to be lagging significantly behind other domestic ones Not to mention the post-Investor tools, which I don’t have experience with myself, but not many people here seem to be praising them.
Asset management firms on the other side of the Atlantic hit the panic button yesterday, and their share prices plunged after Altruist launched the Hazel AI investment tool (see, e.g., @ilkka6’s post on the forum’s “Financial sector as an investment” section). Now, the discussion is spreading regarding what will happen to banks’ AUM (Assets Under Management) units.
While there is a “panic button” atmosphere on Wall Street, the effects could be both negative and positive. Some clients may shift from AUM departments to using AI agents, competition may intensify, and margins may weaken. On the other hand, AI tools also enhance the efficiency and productivity of banks, thereby bringing costs down. For many high-net-worth clients, a personal human advisor is important. AI does not necessarily have to replace current wealth management services entirely; it can also complement them.
AI is already a reality for banks and Nordea today.
That announcement only concerns dividends to be paid during 2026. Emphasis mine:
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