Here is a bit of reasoning.
Btw. there seems to have been another target price hike today, as by the end of the day, Nordnet (Factset) shows an average target of €6.00.
In the morning, when the Kepler hike was known, the average target was still shown as €5.926. Yesterday, this price was €5.864.
Cignal AI expects total datacom optical component revenue to grow at a 20%+ CAGR from 2024 through 2029, reaching nearly $29 billion by the end of the forecast period.
“The next growth engine is 1.6TbE and coherent modules for scale across applications, as Ciena, Cisco/Acacia, and Nokia ship 800ZR+ modules for applications at Meta and others.”
I wonder if it was about this. Quite a substantial target price hike, even though the negative recommendation remained. Personally, I can only find 3 negative recommendations for the stock at the moment, including this one.
Barclays Capital raises its target price for Nokia to EUR 4.70 from EUR 3.40. The underweight recommendation is reiterated.
STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) ABG Sundal Collier raises the target price for Nokia to 6.40 from 5.80 euros. The buy recommendation is reiterated.
And one more from yesterday.
ABG Sundal Collier raises target price for Nokia to EUR 6.40 from EUR 5.80. Reiterates buy recommendation.
According to Factset, the average target is already €6.07. TradingView doesn’t seem to have updated with the latest ones, and the target is €5.904 according to it.
. Barclays piti Nokian osakkeen myyntisuosituksensa. Yhtiön osakkeet sulkeutuivat viime keskiviikkona hintaan 5,57 euroa.
TipRanks Auto-Generated Intelligence NewsdeskJan 09, 2026, 04:25 AM
A small amusing observation about this: Success rate: 53%, average return 4.5%. Flip a coin.
This analyst should invest in funds, unless I misunderstood these estimates.
About this Hisense deal: tens of millions per year and even for back payments something “small”. Personally, I’d perhaps go with Kink at the lower end of the range.
Estimate of royalty / catch-up payments — realistic viewBecause the deal terms are confidential, we can only estimate based on similar licensing deals and Nokia’s public disclosure patterns:
Hisense ships ~25–29 million TVs per year globally.
If even a modest per-unit royalty applies (e.g., €1–€3 per unit), that suggests tens of millions per year in royalties, plus some catch-up if past use was unlicensed.
Rough illustrative ballpark (not confirmed):
Ongoing annual royalties: perhaps €25–€80 million
Catch-up (one-off for prior years): €20–€100 million+
These numbers are estimates based on typical licensing economics and should not be cited as official figures. Neither Nokia nor Hisense have published concrete numbers for this deal.
20.11.2025 Inderes analysis @Atte_Riikola
“Nokia’s targeted comparable operating profit of 2.7-3.2 billion euros for 2028 was in line with our previous expectations, and our forecasts are at the lower end of the target range. In our estimation, some market participants had expected the AI hype to support Nokia’s earnings growth more than the targets, and this disappointment is visible in the stock, which has already fallen over 20% from the peak following the Nvidia investment. In our view, the stock’s valuation remains elevated for the coming years, and even if the targets are met, the valuation would only appear fairly neutral. Thus, the stock’s risk-reward ratio is still not attractive. We raise our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Sell) and adjust our target price to 4.8 euros (prev. 5.0 EUR).”
Kauppalehti today 9.1.2025
“Inderes analyst Atte Riikola expects a clear improvement in Nokia’s results, even as the company simultaneously increases its investments in the development of AI-based radio networks in line with the Nvidia partnership. According to Riikola’s assessment, earnings growth is driven by Network Infrastructure, where data center investments are reflected in growing demand for Nokia’s optical networks and IP networks businesses.
Additionally, the first signs of synergies from the Infinera acquisition should begin to emerge, Riikola muses.
”The outlook for Mobile Networks is even more unclear, but here too, the goal of moving more towards a software-oriented business is the right direction,” Riikola tells Kauppalehti.
In Riikola’s optimistic scenario, Nokia’s Network Infrastructure revenue growth would accelerate to a double-digit level, whereas high single-digit growth is currently expected.”
So @Atte_Riikola, do you really expect a “clear improvement in Nokia’s results,” or are you still “at the lower end of the operating profit forecast range” as you declared in the analysis in late November? Or has the reader missed something again, or is this just a matter of fine-tuning?
For the year 2028, Nokia’s guidance averages out to 2.95 billion euros in comparable operating profit. In Inderes’ forecasts, the figure in the calculations appears to be 2.82 billion euros.
And even though the stock has risen by about 8% since November 20, 2025 (close 5.20), Nokia’s adjusted P/E at current pricing would be around 14 and the adjusted EV/EBIT would be around the 9 level. This calculation was based on the midpoint of Nokia’s guidance—and I suspect many think it is conservative to leave room for positive surprises.
But I would like to challenge this a bit, considering how demand is weighted towards data centers and AI, and demand is likely to shift even more strongly toward optical networks, where Nokia is in a unique position to benefit thanks to Infinera. So how would the valuation above be “only at a neutral level”? In my opinion, that valuation is very attractive—the AI hype isn’t reflected in it at all yet. I suspect the valuation will expand significantly higher—perhaps not quite to 2x levels within that timeframe, but substantially nonetheless.
Btw. As I understand it, Q4/2025 is the first quarter in which Nokia will deliver ICE-X 800G pluggables, and these will then be delivered throughout 2026. In the near future, this is the area that will likely drive growth in optical networks.
@Mikael_Rautanen @atte_riikola something to consider regarding information refinement. This discussion forum, for instance, has proven to be a high-quality source of information refinement through the 
contributions of Nokia experts. And I don’t just mean guessing financial parameters, but the essence and potential of technological specs as well as the meaningful assessment of sector-specific market information. The reality is that such a deep dive into technological specs is not achieved even in Inderes’ (nor anyone else’s) extensive company reports, unless/until the sector’s technological information becomes so-called “layman’s technological fact.” Therefore, I would suggest that Inderes – at least they used to want to be – a changemaker and seek new perspectives for developing analysis. For example, by testing a case-by-case external analysis group for certain companies, similar to the source method used for their own stock – a student group. Such a group could be, for instance, a multidisciplinary team of finance and technology students/willing experts. It feels like current analyses are largely based on financial guesswork based on what the company reports and only to some extent on the analyst’s sector-specific knowledge, especially regarding technological potential/current shifts. However, technological/sector-specific so-called SWOT analysis/speculation on the potential of meaningful matters is often overlooked in many companies. This discussion forum, thanks to the Nokia experts , saves the situation. The same deficiency is present in many other analyses, and it becomes more pronounced the more the company’s earnings logic/potential for success depends on technological assessments. It’s clear that an analyst’s time (and not necessarily their understanding) may not suffice for deep-diving into all information, but development; development is good for everyone.
Nordea lowers Nokia’s target price to 6.5 euros (7.0) and reiterates its buy recommendation
today at 08.17 ∙ Finwire
Nokia ADR
OP earnings preview:
Earnings turn to growth
Nokia’s 2026–2028 strategy period starts on a mixed note. The growth outlook for Network Infrastructure is good, as AI investments provide a new growth boost to the market. In Mobile Networks, the market is not growing, but Nokia’s collaboration with Nvidia in AI-RAN development creates interesting long-term opportunities and is, at its best, a game-changer for Nokia. We reiterate our EUR 6.50 target price and ADD recommendation.
Q4 forecasts: We expect Nokia to report net sales of EUR 6.3 billion (consensus 6.1), a comparable operating profit of EUR 1.03 billion (cons. 1.01), and a dividend per share of EUR 0.15 (cons. 0.14). Profit distribution is estimated to be approximately EUR 750 million according to our forecast. We expect year-end net cash to be EUR 4.4 billion, which includes Nvidia’s EUR 0.85 billion equity investment.
2026 guidance: We anticipate Nokia will guide for a comparable operating profit of EUR 2.0–2.5 billion for 2026. The consensus forecast for operating profit is currently EUR 2.41 billion, and OP’s forecast is slightly (2%) more conservative at EUR 2.36 billion. Network Infrastructure’s profit will grow this year due to net sales growth and Infinera synergies (EUR 100 million). Mobile Networks’ profit should also improve this year, as last year’s result included a EUR 120 million one-time cost from an old contract. Nokia’s reporting structure will change this year, and going forward, the company will have only two reportable segments: Network Infrastructure and Mobile Infrastructure.
Target price EUR 6.50, ADD: Our target price is based on our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model, where the 2026 result has a weighting of 75% and the 2027 result 25%. Currently, Nokia is valued at EV/EBIT 11.6x/10.5x (2026/2027).
That KL article discusses expectations for 2026, for which my own forecasts currently show a comparable operating profit of approximately 2.2 billion (2025e €1.95 billion), representing a clear improvement. I will return to this year’s expectations in more detail closer to the results in the earnings preview.
And for 2028, our forecast (€2.8 billion) is at the lower end of the target range provided by Nokia.
Once again, let’s keep a cool head regarding the hype over optical. Yes, optical networks are growing, but it is worth remembering that, for example, Infinera was a company on the brink of bankruptcy when Nokia acquired it. In many of Infinera’s product categories, Nokia already had equivalent products whose sales were rising when the bid for Infinera was made. Optical infra is needed in networks, and its share in connections between racks will grow significantly in the latest hardware, but the big money still moves in copper interconnects (Arista, Cisco… switches). Nokia NI’s biggest growth is still coming from the IP and fixed product areas, particularly in large data center switches, where they have secured a major project from the likes of Google. Going into production already this year. These are big developments and will show in the results faster than new spearhead technologies such as CPO.
Judging by the reference, it seems you found the text to be hyping things up in this regard.
In my view, it’s completely justified to ask regarding Nokia whether it’s fully priced when comparing its development to peer pricing or multiples.
Here’s Ciena – the price is nearly 5x since May 2025. And yes, their portfolio is different – or rather, it’s primarily focused on optical networks, and data centers bring more revenue to Nokia. Ciena’s market value is now about 33 billion USD.
Or then take Lumentum, which is in the data center space and generally involved in, for example, CPO development – there are points of intersection with Nokia in many respects. In this case, revenue of about 2 billion is expected to double in a few years.
The price has roughly 8-folded in no time, and the market value is currently 24 billion USD.
What I’m trying to say is that when Nokia is priced as a high-tech company in pretty much the same way as, say, the low-margin Kesko, then something is a bit off. And it’s not like I don’t own Kesko myself, so the comparison isn’t made for that reason. Or on the other hand, Nokia’s optical business, including say IP, certainly doesn’t get anywhere near the same valuation in Nokia’s current pricing as, for instance, Ciena’s. So relative to peers, there would be quite a lot of upside – perhaps the reality lies somewhere in the middle – fair enough?
Yeah, Infinera was (as a relatively new company) in quite some financial trouble. Despite that, it developed products with the future in mind, and perhaps it can be said that it was fighting a race against time. Demand was forming, but it wasn’t there yet. With its last remaining funds, it started building a new production facility worth hundreds of millions. Now, however, demand is starting to appear, and specifically, for example, ICE-X is based on Infinera’s development. And it’s fair to expect that this side will bring solid growth for Nokia from now on, right?
And Nokia did manage to acquire InP expertise and production through Infinera, as well as general leadership in PIC technology. This is more what Lumentum or Coherent are capable of, but Nokia hasn’t been. I think it’s possible that this side will become very critical expertise for future development. At best, Nokia will gain business through Infinera with margins at a much higher level than the current ones.
It’s possible that David Heard’s hype has partially rubbed off on me as well, but I think I’m still quite far from that in terms of enthusiasm.
Morning pick from a Reuters news story.
Choppy trading ahead for European semis, Jefferies warns
“Expect a choppy ride,” Jefferies says in its sector outlook on European semis for 2026, adding that being selective on stocks will be key after they saw a strong share price rise in 2025.
The market is “pricing in a sharp reversal in earnings momentum,” which the broker deems unlikely.
Jefferies’ favourites are SUSS, Nokia, and Infineon where “expectations are lower,” with the latter also set to benefit from positive signs in demand for industrial and auto chips.
Jefferies recently upgraded their rating for Nokia from “Hold” to “Buy”, reflecting increased confidence in the company’s prospects. The analysts at Jefferies highlighted Nokia’s growing exposure to AI-driven data center demand, which they believe positions Nokia well for future growth.
