NoHo Partners - Capital allocator in the restaurant industry

[poutapilvia]

I’ll make one more post and after that, I’ll stop talking about the weather Then we can focus on fundamental analysis again.

@ollikohan

temperature difference from normal about 7-8 degrees

The maps show the situation correctly. If we generate a temperature anomaly for January, it looks like this:

In other words, in those Muonio localities, it was even more than 6 degrees colder than normal. Correspondingly, in the northern parts of Denmark, it was at best ~-2-2.5 degrees colder.

The same phenomenon is visible in the temperature standard deviation map I sent earlier, where a temperature deviating from the mean by ~ -2-2.5 standard deviations was observed around Muonio. This already corresponds to a rare sample, if compared to an ideal normal distribution:

[MainiotHorpyt]

I enjoy it when someone actually knows their stuff and is presumably also interested in the subject. Truly great commentary for once, that’s all from me.

[Hesekiel]

NoHo, like other companies and amateur meteorologists, likely compares its weather observations and sales to corresponding periods in the previous year, month, or week. Long time series and statistical significance are probably more accurate starting points if we are talking about weather alone. I see that both NoHo’s weather explanation and the statistics could tell different stories, yet both could be true at the same time.

[Vuosaaren_Warren_Buf]

I can’t say for sure about the maps, but I’d imagine that message to NoHo’s management came from Denmark based on practical experience, rather than being made up at an office in central Helsinki

I haven’t looked at the weather diagrams now, but at least looking out the window and being outside, spring has looked good. If Q2 is strong, is it a red flag if NoHo’s management justifies a potentially good result with the weather? In other words, is talking about the weather always a big RED FLAG?

[Arvoansa1]

Weather is Noho’s version of geopolitics, currency headwinds, and tariffs. When things are going well, there’s no need to blame the weather.

[Karhu_Hylje]

I briefly went through NoHo’s insider trades by quarter in relation to reports and market reactions. The list is formatted a bit awkwardly; you essentially have to read it from the bottom up, as the transactions made before the report are listed below it. These are categorized by the insider, even if the actual transaction might have been executed by another party:

NoHo Insider Trades:

Q1/26 Soft – positive reaction after a drop in share price

-Niemi sold 5k

Q4/25 – In line with expectations/dividend cut – negative reaction

-Niemi sold 10k

Q3/25 – Earnings miss – Norway’s issues worse than expected, significant drop in share price

-Laine sold 10k
-Niemi did not sell

Q2/25 – Soft quarter – first signs of problems in Norway – slight drop in share price

-Niemi sold 6k

Q1/25 – Slightly below expectations – slight drop in share price

-Niemi sold 5k

Q4/24 – Earnings beat (tulosjytky) – share price up

-Laine bought 0.12k

-Virlander bought 6.7k

-Niemi did not sell

Q3/24 Result slightly better than expected and good booking situation – share price eventually trended up

-Koivula bought 21k

-Virlander bought 0.7k

-Laine bought 17.7k

-Niemi did not sell

Q2/24 Missed expectations and cautious outlook – drop in share price

-Niemi sold 7k

Q1/24 In line with expectations and optimism in market comments – share price increase

-Niemi sold 5.9k

-Laine bought 1.9k

In summary, I would say Laine is such a skilled trader that I could let him manage my own portfolio. He managed to time both of his buys right before two positive earnings surprises and his sale right before a major earnings miss and the problems in Norway.

Niemi, on the other hand, managed to avoid selling right before those two positive earnings surprises, but also failed to sell before the major earnings miss.

Virlander and Koivula also timed their purchases well before a couple of good reports.

[Karhu_Hylje]

Well, now we finally got those much-anticipated insider buys, as a new board member took a substantial initial position:

NoHo Partners Oyj: Johdon liiketoimet (Kaario) - Inderes

[Jugi25]

A few facts for everyone, though I’m not defending NoHo in any way…

Niemi = Mika Niemi’s wife. She has always sold off shares whenever she received them in the past from the Rengasravintolat Oy deal. Hanna has likely used the funds to finance her other projects, but I won’t go into more detail on that… Mika himself hasn’t sold any, right?

Laine sold in Q3/2025:

Laine himself hasn’t seemed to ever sell shares. In this case, it involves Megeve Trust Oy, where Timo is a shareholder. Regarding Timo’s 17.7k share purchase: The transaction was carried out in connection with life insurance.

If I recall correctly, Timo has often bought shares sold by other insiders himself. Timo has over 40 million tied up in NoHo and owns approximately 26% of the company.

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

@henrielo has conducted an analysis on NoHo.

Seasonally, the first quarter is the smallest in terms of sales in the restaurant industry. Nevertheless, the company has managed to progress with profitability measures in Norway. The result there was also positive, whereas it was loss-making during last year’s autumn quarter before the Christmas season.

According to management, the second quarter has started clearly better than the previous year in all markets, namely Finland, Denmark, and Norway.

Subheadings:

1. Cold winter took its toll – the sun rose in March
2. Finnish growth comes from food restaurants
3. Denmark grows fueled by acquisitions
4. BBS is progressing at a good pace
5. NoHo’s share price performance holds up against peers
6. Summary

Note

IR-monitoring is a channel by SalkunRakentaja and Sijoittaja.fi for corporate partners to provide background and analytical articles, as well as other interesting investor information. This article is part of a commercial partnership with the company. The article does not contain investment recommendations.

Analyysi: NoHo pilotoi uudenlaista kasvua Suomessa ja Tanskassa

[Karhu_Hylje]

Strong momentum for restaurants in April according to Nordea’s card data: