Largely along the same lines. TMS technology is not my field, but for example, the Kobe conference mentioned earlier in the thread was, in my opinion, a strong indication that Nexstim’s technology is top in its field, and it has many applications and opportunities.
In Kobe, there were as many as 46 (!) presentations where Nexstim’s technology had been utilized. If the devices are in such active research use, then new applications that could significantly boost device sales (like Sinaptica) will emerge at some point.
Inderes forecasts EPS for 2025-28 as 0.48, 0.55, 0.86, 0.85 and assumes growth will turn negative in 2028. This calculation is naturally based on current knowledge and existing agreements.
Nexstim has 7.2 million shares, which is a relatively small number, so with potential new openings, successful Brainlab sales, expansion of depression treatment, steady growth in continuous revenue, and for example, the opening of Asian markets, doubling, tripling, or more of Inderes’ EPS estimates towards the end of the stated period is, in my opinion, by no means impossible, due to scalability.
It would be really interesting to know Inderes’ justifications for why the revenue growth of technology disrupting the treatment field turns into a decline after the technology has made/is making a breakthrough in the market.
Especially when the consumables side is growing at the same time as the user base expands.
Obtaining FDA approval is always a difficult process, but Sinaptica aims to get marketing authorization for its device by late 2027. Alzheimer’s treatment is such a huge market, and among those treated, there are many with deep pockets, so the sales volumes of the devices will be completely different from the current business.
IF Sinaptica gets that approval, then in 2028, certainly as many devices will be delivered in that direction as production can possibly produce.
Reporting person
Name: Martin Forss
Position: Member of the Board/Deputy Member
Nature of transaction: ACQUISITION
Volume: 3000 Average price: 7.65667 EUR
This is great. With the continuation of purchases, I think this can already be considered a significant matter. Especially when shares are acquired at the list price. Let’s hope the same trend continues.
As late as last November, Forss had 16979 shares according to the ownership register, and topped up 2904 pcs last month. After this latest addition, there should be a total of about 26000 shares in the portfolio.
I agree with @Jatast, it’s a very positive thing that even the insider is interested in putting their own money on the line.
Nexstim also seems to have had its best Q1 ever, and with the devices delivered to Sinaptica, probably the entire H1 as well. However, larger sales volumes are looming towards the end of the year.
Nextim is not mentioned. It’s about an rTMS device. Pictures of an EMG device from the Czech company Deymed.
Here’s ChatGPT’s explanation of the device.
“2. TruTrace EMG
The first fully battery-powered EMG system that offers high-quality nerve conduction studies (NCS), electromyographies (EMG), autonomic nervous system studies (ANS), and evoked potentials (EP). The system is designed for both clinical and research use, and it includes intuitive software and a separate EMG keyboard.”
The article gives the impression that the journalist is unaware of Nexstim’s existence.
The rTMS treatment device presented in the article apparently operates more on a hit-or-miss principle, whereas with Nexstim’s devices, magnetic stimulation can, as I understand it, be precisely targeted to the correct location with navigation, thus allowing for the stimulation of exactly the right brain cells and neural networks.
I came across Recuror’s post on LinkedIn, where they mentioned that they too have started offering treatment with an accelerated rTMS protocol. This is the accelerated protocol developed at Stanford, with which severe depression can be treated in as little as a week. This protocol is the one that Magnus Medical also offers with their own devices. Recuror uses Nexstim devices in Turku and Helsinki. Treatment experiences with this accelerated protocol have been shared by, among others, Tim Ferriss.
In the next interview, one could ask the CEO if the US partners, in which Nexstim is a shareholder, use the same protocol. As I recall, the MM contract did not restrict this.
Of course, it would also be nice to know if anything restricts it anymore if the agreement is not in force, or if it is, and if so, to what extent. Well, they will probably tell us about it when there is something to tell.
If you are interested in Sinaptica Therapeutics’ entire Investor pitch deck, Ken Mariash’s presentation starts from 1:20:00 onwards. New information for me, at least, was at 1:25:50 when Mariash mentions that Sinaptica has already received approvals at this stage for treatment-related reimbursement codes ($366 per session). Sinaptica’s own business model, neurologists’ earning model, Go-To-Market strategy, and even potential Sinaptica buyers were also discussed.
It probably won’t hurt the funding round that the codes have been approved already at this stage.
I also liked this sentence when the neurologists’ earning model was discussed:
“With economics like this, we’ll send a car and driver to pick patients up” -Neurologist
It was interesting, and they presented strong figures after the launch of the commercial product. A big deal was that it might be in commercial use as early as 2028. A price of $200K had been negotiated with Nexstim, and if Nexstim is already mentioned and the device presented in this context, it certainly greatly increases confidence in the revenues from Sinaptica.
I still have to go back to the figures from the presentation, which were presented at the end of a seven-year conservative model. If I calculated correctly that 134,000 patients meant patients treated during the entire period, then based on the revenue figures for year 7, that would mean approximately 1,300 machines in use. When one starts to add up what the machines cost and what the share of consumables is, then one reaches quite considerable sums.
If, on the other hand, we go by the 300,000 patient estimate, then the sums are so large that one doesn’t even dare to calculate.
What’s best is that the agreement (which has not yet been signed) has always been talked about as exclusive with Sinaptica. One would think that Nexstim would be involved, even if someone bought Sinaptica out.
