I specifically consider e-SAF to be the so-called holy grail here, because Neste’s balance sheet will soon be in good shape for investments again, and its position as a pioneer and management’s ambition suggest that they will move forward quickly in these matters if necessary. While waiting for that, I think it’s good that the company is also able to produce biomass-based fuels, as their relative importance is emphasized in the current crisis situation.
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Behind the link below is a brand-new report from SAS’s website discussing the future of SAF and eSAF. The upcoming change is massive, and there are, of course, many uncertainties in the calculations. Neste’s balance sheet must be in good shape to handle the upcoming investments; on the other hand, in this turbulent situation, the next few years are full of opportunities because many early-stage companies with weak balance sheets will not survive future challenges on their own, especially on the eSAF side.
Of course, Neste’s willingness to be part of this new market will also be decisive; I have some question marks regarding Malinen, whom I consider more of a restructuring specialist than a builder. On the other hand, he is also approaching retirement age, and a successor could be entering the picture within two or three years.
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It’s good that the suddenly increased cash flow is being used to strengthen the balance sheet rather than patching up the state’s coffers with some extra dividends.
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As I understand it, today, Friday, May 8th, the upper house of the German Parliament is discussing the approval of the implementation of the RED III directive, which Malinen has also brought up.
Talouselämä also wrote about this, noting that the stock has recently fluctuated along with oil prices and the fundamentals have been forgotten.
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