Target price changes picked from Kauppalehti:
“Morgan Stanley upgrades Neste’s recommendation to Overweight (prev. Hold), target price raised to 25.00 euros (prev. 18.80 euros)”
“Goldman Sachs upgrades Neste’s recommendation to Buy (prev. Hold), target price raised to 24.00 euros (prev. 20.50 euros)”
Degiro gives a little more info re assumptions on Q4 expectations:
“
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley raise ratings for Neste , expecting increasing prices for renewable fuels to boost the Finnish fuel maker’s results
GS raises Neste to “buy” from “neutral”, estimating the company’s EBITDA in Q4 of 2025 to be 20% above the BBG consensus number of 530 million euros ($628 million)
European spot renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), are up 11-14% quarter-on-quarter while prices of some renewable feedstocks are flat, GS says
GS raises PT by 17% to 24 euros per share
Morgan Stanley upgrades Neste to “overweight” from “equal-weight”, raising its PT by 38% to 25 euros
MS says high prices, improvement from demand amid European regulations on renewable fuel to support margins
Neste shares up more than 5% in morning trade and are among top risers on STOXX 600 <.STOXX>
($1 = 0.8445 euros)
(Reporting by Boleslaw Lasocki)
((boleslaw.lasocki@thomsonreuters.com; +48 58 769 66 00;))
“
A moment ago, Kauppalehti published a news story concerning Neste (paywall, Neste vauhdissa tulosraportin alla – Morgan Stanley: Edellytykset yhä markkinoita parempaan suoritukseen | Kauppalehti). A short quote from the article:
”According to Morgan Stanley analyst Alice Winograd, the company still faces structural risks, but there is upside potential in the results, particularly thanks to the strengthening of physical demand supported by European legislation.
Furthermore, the bank sees the recovery of US margins and a reduction in risks as positive factors, as long-term sales contracts have been locked in at high prices.
According to Winograd, the market has not yet fully factored in the flexibility provided by Neste’s balance sheet for the period after 2026. This enables earnings-based dividend payouts of over 50 percent as well as higher investments.”
From Degiro news feed:
UBS cuts rating for Finnish refiner and biofuels producer Neste to “neutral” from “buy”, and raises PT to 23 euros ($27.55) from 20.50 euros
Brokerage says improved outlook is largely priced in, following a recent 30% surge in its share price
Adds the stock’s risk/reward profile is now “more balanced”, with shares trading at their three-year average valuation multiple after the recent rally ** On raising PT, UBS cites a de-risked outlook for 2026-27 after Germany’s approval for a draft regulation on biofuels
The brokerage forecasts weaker-than-consensus Q4 results, as Neste’s renewable products margin estimate impacted by heavy maintenance and lower diesel prices
Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it “buy” or higher, six “hold” and five “strong sell” or “sell” - LSEG-compiled data
($1 = 0.8348 euros)
(Reporting by Vera Dvorakova) ((vera.dvorakova@thomsonreuters.com))
Here is Petri’s company preview as Neste reports its Q4 results this Thursday. 
We have raised our short-term forecasts to reflect high fossil product margins, while long-term forecasts were boosted by an increase in Renewable Products sales margin estimates. In line with this overall picture, we raise our target price to EUR 22.0 (prev. EUR 18.0), but reflecting a balanced valuation, we reiterate our reduce recommendation.
The direction is good. I have no idea what was expected, but personally, I am satisfied with the development.
Year 2025 in brief:
Comparable EBITDA was EUR 1,683 (1,252) million
EBITDA was EUR 1,438 (1,005) million
Renewable products sales 4,134 (3,729) thousand tons
Oil products sales 11,868 (10,147) thousand tons
Cash flow before financing activities was EUR 759 (-341) million
Leverage ratio at the end of December was 34.3% (36.1%)
Earnings per share: EUR 0.19 (-0.12)
The Board proposes a dividend of EUR 0.20 (0.20) per share, totaling EUR 154 (154) million
Fourth quarter in brief:
Comparable EBITDA was EUR 601 (168) million
EBITDA was EUR 545 (143) million
Renewable products comparable sales margin was USD 479 (242) per ton
Oil products total refining margin was USD 20.7 (11.8) per barrel
Cash flow before financing activities was EUR 809 (462) million
Inderes’ robot was of the opinion that it was a good result compared to expectations.
“Neste’s Q4 results beat expectations as comparable EBITDA rose to 601 MEUR, while we expected 504 MEUR.”
It’s coming down quite ugly. Is this likely the reason?
“In its outlook, the company estimates that the sales volume of renewable products in 2026 will be approximately at the same level as in 2025. The sales volume of oil products in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025 due to a planned maintenance shutdown.”
Oil product and renewable margins expanded in 2025, so if it happens that margins decrease this year and sales also decrease as projected, I wonder if the stock still has even more room to fall.
The renewable production forecast was a disappointment, as the utilization rate is only 75%, whereas at its best it has been 90%.
If any conclusions are to be drawn, it’s that supply chains no longer guarantee enough raw materials compared to the peak times when there weren’t nearly as many players in the market as there are now.
Another limiting factor could be that SAF cannot be produced from raw materials that are not CORSIA-certified, and many UCO collectors and sellers only hold EU certification. Therefore, if only SAF is produced in Singapore, there may be a shortage of raw materials.
Mika Anttonen’s St1 apparently trimmed its position in Neste quite significantly a week or two ago. I also sold out back in December. Although I’ve been regretting it. But then again, who knows what the near future looks like.
Cash flow is at a very good level, which is being used to fund the Rotterdam project. So, there is a major construction effort underway in Rotterdam for the 2027 ramp-up. Due to the strong cash flow, Neste’s financial position in the markets improved significantly, and the equity ratio improved by a couple of percentage points (I think it was around 37%). The German RED III provision is progressing, which is super important from the perspective of the profitability of Neste’s Rotterdam investment and for placing production on the market. Rotterdam will satisfy Central Europe’s demand for biofuels, which is rising sharply due to Germany’s RED III, among other things. One could say that the timing of the Rotterdam production ramp-up is “just in the nick of time.” In my opinion, the direction is promising; I see no reason to panic.
Good result. Based on the comments, the 2026 outlook hit the price quite hard. Why would margins decrease this year? I certainly can’t find any reason.
If you look ahead to 2027 and the situation in Rotterdam, the situation could be something else entirely. Capacity is practically doubling there, while at the same time new distribution mandates are creating demand. Personally, I see this as a good opportunity to add more Neste to my portfolio.
Has there been any comment on why renewable production isn’t growing this year? Are there maintenance turnarounds, or could the reason supposedly be raw material sourcing? I mean, if it’s down to raw materials, that problem is unlikely to ease as more capacity comes onto the market…
I don’t think any more specific details have been given on that, but I don’t see any other bottlenecks besides raw materials, as there are no more shutdowns scheduled for the rest of the year.
From the KL article: “In its outlook, the company estimates that the sales volume of renewable products in 2026 will be at roughly the same level as in 2025. The sales volume of oil products in 2026 is expected to be lower than in 2025 due to a planned maintenance shutdown.”
To clarify, there are no further maintenance shutdowns on the renewables side other than those that have already concluded.
Finland’s renewable plants will go on shutdown in Porvoo at the same time as the rest of the refinery. But we’re talking about fairly small volumes there, anyway.
I calculated that Neste “leaves” about 825 million tons of renewable products unsold when the current utilization rate is compared to the best times when the utilization rate was 90%.
If there is such “underutilization” now, the 1.3 million ton expansion in Rotterdam sounds quite optimistic, considering the current “deficit” in production.
Personally, I’d say the problem is on the procurement side, as the equipment itself should have no problem running at nearly full capacity, as has been proven in the past.
Here is also Heikki and Eeva’s interview.
I’d also like to remind you about the ROAST! It hasn’t aged at all in a couple of months.
“Neste’s Q4 result beat expectations by a clear margin, while the sales volume guidance given for 2026 for Renewable Products was soft relative to expectations. We have therefore made minor negative forecast revisions for the current year reflecting this. Thus, we reiterate our EUR 22.0 target price and our reduce recommendation.”
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OP lowers recommendation to ADD (prev. BUY) and target price to 23.00 (prev. 27.00)