Who can tell how much Neste sells on the spot market and how much with longer-term contracts?
5 Likes
Yes, the other capacity that has not been shut down due to maintenance outages is being run at full capacity, and more will come when the Rotterdam expansion is completed. According to the current schedule, this will be during 2027, but there is always uncertainty associated with these projects, and of course, ramping up new capacity takes time, as seen with the Singapore expansion. So, one could assume that the Rotterdam expansion will reach full speed sometime during 2028.
The exact split between contract sales and spot sales is not precisely known. Historically, Neste has stated early in the year that about half or even 2/3 has been under contract sales for the next 12 months, but this figure has indeed varied in recent years. During the year, it naturally also changes according to how much of that contract sales has actually been delivered, so itâs unlikely that the split consistently follows the contract/spot sales exactly on a quarterly or even monthly basis. Now, regarding H2â25, it has been said that due to contract sales and maintenance outages, only small volumes will be available for the spot market, and therefore it is difficult to achieve the benefits of the spot marketâs strong margin with significant volumes.
23 Likes
Neste supplies sustainable aviation fuel to Cathay Group scaling up the use of SAF across three major aviation regions | Neste
41 Likes
EcoCeres has started operations at their Malaysian refinery, and the first cargo has departed for Europe. There is no information on deliveries within Asia, so itâs hard to say if all the SAF is going to Europe.
Granted, the capacity is 350,000 MT per year, but refineries of this size are starting to emerge, so more competitors for Neste will certainly be entering the market in Asia as well.
5 Likes
Itâs good that more is coming online, as airlines have been complaining that there isnât enough capacity in the market to meet the mandates. IATA figures show that SAF production would be 1.9 million tonnes in 2025 and 2.4 million tonnes in 2026. According to those, the growth would be quite modest.
17 Likes
âNeste and Airbus have been collaborating on the development of sustainable aviation fuel since 2022. In November, the cooperation agreement was extended once again.â
A relatively neutral article that takes into account the role of SAF producers and the costs for airlines. A major highlight, however, is the worldâs largest aircraft manufacturer and their perspective on the matter.
Naturally, airlines are lobbying against any increase in their costs, but the future looks good for Neste.
P.S. If someone hasnât watched it yet, the Roast featured a good discussion from the perspectives of regulation, the green transition, and airline ticket prices.
29 Likes
If you are a business class customer, what would you choose: move to an economy class seat, or pay extra for SAF surcharge?
10 Likes
In two years, if the renewables sales margin were 600 USD/t and the sales volume 6 Mt/a, then Neste could be a 30 euro stock. In Q3/25, the renewables sales margin was 480 USD/t and in the peak year 2023 it was 863 USD/t, so in itself quite a possible scenario.
31 Likes
I suppose news/rumours from US are positive to Neste, althouth not unexpected.. Could it be that this article in Reuters had spiked Nesteâs share price above 21 Eur temporarily today?
29 Likes
OP today
Both Q4 and Q1 results exceed consensus
Nesteâs Q4 results continue to be weighed down by old fixed-price contracts in renewable products that covered the entire previous year. Nevertheless, substantial inventory levels allowed for significant sales volumes in the spot market as well. In addition, we believe consensus forecasts underestimate the dilutive effect of the 2025 fixed-price contracts, and thus, upon their expiration, consensus margin forecasts for Q1/26 are, in our view, significantly too low. We reiterate our target price of EUR 27.00 and our BUY recommendation. etcâŠ
41 Likes
How would this new âmiracle batteryâ (if it works??) affect Neste? I canât find any discussion on this in this thread.
I donât see the impact being that significant IF the battery is as revolutionary as claimed. Heavy transport still needs diesel and SAF consumption is rising, so there is still demand for renewables. And shipping is constantly shifting more towards renewables, so there will definitely be enough demand in the future.
1 Like
Manufacturing the âmiracle batteryâ is a significant bottleneck (if it even works), which is good for Neste. The vehicle fleetâwhether passenger cars or heavy machineryârenews slowly, and even among the new ones, these âmiracle batteriesâ will only be installed in a fraction of them in any scenario. Itâs hard to disrupt the market if you only have 0.001% of the market even 10 years from now.
1 Like
Itâs clear that transport is electrifying at an accelerating pace with a battery pack like that, and fossil fuel consumption is decreasing..
Personally, Iâll stick with fossil-fuel cars in the future, as itâs not hard to see that oil prices will drop while taxation on electric vehicles rises in the future. = You wonât gain any financial benefit from an EV in the future either.
It will take years before that battery pack is found in the average personâs car on a large scale, anyway.. The ramp-up will be a long process.
2 Likes
How would this new âmiracle batteryâ (if it actually works??) affect Neste? I canât find any discussions on this in this thread.
Over the next 10 years, new miracle batteries wonât have any impact. Scaling up production and distribution chains takes time when dealing with new technology.
Regardless, the electrification of transport is progressing anyway even with existing technologies, meaning that the products from the Kilpilahti refinery will lose at least their domestic market and the Nordic market. New demand for these fractions must be found elsewhere.
Over the next 10 years, a strategic question will also be how existing infrastructure is modified so that the facility retains its license to operate into the 2040s. Fortunately, Neste has promising routes in its portfolio, such as the utilization of waste plastics and lignocellulose.
Personally, I see that especially in lignocellulose, Nesteâand Finland in generalâhas a competitive advantage, although previous attempts with these routes have stalled. But as regulation most likely tightens by 2030 and beyond, these routes will likely have a new opportunity for scaling.
6 Likes
In Kauppalehti today 22.1.2026
Nordea: Raises Nesteâs target price to 24.00 euros (prev. 22.00 euros) and reiterates its buy recommendation
40 Likes
Others are steadily raising their target prices and recommendations. When will @Petri_Gostowski provide a new update on Inderesâ view?
12 Likes
@JarkkoH The timing for updating views is not disclosed in advance. @Petri_Gostowski can correct me, but some broad expressions may have been used in these responses at times, e.g., âin the near futureâ etc., but the exact time when a new report is released is (naturally) not disclosed.
7 Likes
Exactly as you wrote, @Johannes_Sippola 
4 Likes