Cash is running out, the family gets paid, and then the shutters close. Nothing positive has come out, and I don’t believe anything is coming either. Years of dragging on, and it’s more of the same. A poor investment choice.
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The trading volume is apparently so small that even small purchases can swing the stock by about 10-15 cents.
4 days until the earnings report, there was a bit of a rise last week. Hopefully, the report will be good and the upward trend will continue. Does anyone have any previews for Friday?
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I have the same guesses as last time. Modulight sijoituskohteena - #1095 käyttäjältä L_Dabio
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Here is Antti’s preview as Modulight reports its results on Friday, April 24. 
We expect the company’s revenue to have continued its moderate growth from the comparison period, but the operating result to remain loss-making. In the report, our attention is particularly focused on the development of treatment-based PPT (pay-per-treatment) revenue as well as the sufficiency of the company’s cash reserves as the new strategy period begins.
And here are the comments on the new guidance as well.
Modulight announced on Tuesday that it is providing financial guidance for 2026. The company expects revenue and EBITDA for the 2026 financial year to grow from the previous year. The guidance is in line with our current forecasts, in which we expect gradual business growth and profitability to turn positive at the EBITDA level. The announcement does not cause immediate pressure to change our forecasts. We will review our assessment of the stock in connection with Friday’s Q1 report.
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Could @Antti_Siltanen inquire in the upcoming interview what Modulight’s outlook is regarding the quantum industry and whether Modulight has the capability to manufacture chips that integrate directly into the optical circuits of quantum computers?
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CEO Seppo Orsila was interviewed by Antti after Modulight’s Q1 release
Topics:
00:00 Intro
00:11 Q1 summary
01:17 Maturation of customer accounts and projects
03:58 Medical and Life Sciences projects
05:36 Drivers for PPT revenue growth
06:45 Guidance and underlying assumptions
08:12 Lasers in the quantum industry
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The company’s free cash flow was €661,000 in the red.
The company has €9 million in cash reserves.
The company forecasts revenue and EBIDA growth vs. 2025.
Revenue dipped in Q1 vs. Q1/25. Despite this, EBIDA improved significantly.
When will the cash run out?
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Cash reserves 9 million. In the last quarter, 0.6 million was burned. Perhaps the cash position will last another couple of years without major investment needs?
The quantum side is interesting, in my opinion, as the technology of many leading companies there relies on lasers. Of course, it takes time, but in the long run, it could become a very significant application for Modulight. The sensing side (sensors, atomic clocks) seems to be partly quite mature for the market. These applications are needed especially in the space and defense industries, where governments are pouring money. As I understand it, if Modulight has the capability to manufacture and scale very small, chip-level laser components that are critical for the miniaturization of quantum sensors, it could be a big deal on a five-year timeframe.
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I wish Modulight nothing but the best. It’s such a niche field and set of products, especially here in Finland. The performance has just been disappointingly poor, hence the fear that a share issue will be coming at some point. For the sake of the company and the investors, I certainly hope that things improve as they themselves predict.
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Here is a company report from Siltanen after Modulight’s Q1 results
Modulight’s Q1 revenue fell short of the comparison period and our forecast. On the other hand, the result and cash flow were better than our expectations as a result of low costs. The product development pipeline grew to 36 projects with three new customer accounts, and Pay-Per-Treatment (PPT) business billing more than doubled from the comparison period. The company recently issued guidance for the current year: the company expects revenue and EBITDA growth compared to the comparison year 2025. Our view remains unchanged following moderate forecast changes, so we reiterate our recommendation (Reduce) and target price of EUR 1.2.
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Is this rise due to IQM’s upcoming dual listing? Or is there some other news?
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Or is it a question of the speculation regarding what constitutes an AI bottleneck? Cf. Canatu, Aspocomp, etc. Now it seems like everything possible and impossible related to that is rising. I suppose it will level off once the real players are identified.
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There is not enough supply of components. Here is an article from today. I think interest in Modulight might increase in the near future.
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Modulight has likely never mentioned data centers as potential customers, which probably means that their technology, unfortunately, isn’t suitable for this application. Otherwise, it surely would have been brought up many times by now.
If a company is capable of manufacturing lasers that meet the extreme criteria of quantum computers, it possesses the technical capability to also produce data center lasers. If there truly is a long-term supply shortage in that market, I find it quite possible that people have already been knocking on Modulight’s door.
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Orsila speaks so cautiously even in Inderes interviews that it is difficult to estimate where things stand regarding demand. If I remember correctly, semiconductors have been mentioned, though. As for data centers, the potential seems to be mostly theoretical for now. It has been estimated that photonics and especially lasers will become a significant bottleneck in data centers. If this bottleneck materializes, it’s possible that every laser in the world will be snapped up, including those from Hervanta. It will be interesting to see how the company’s share price moves in the coming days and weeks. It was a peculiar coincidence that Modulight’s share price rose sharply at the same time as Canatu and Aspocomp. Or was it a coincidence?
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AI chewed over the article like this when I asked if Modulight could meet the demand with its production:
”Short answer: Modulight only partially benefits from the same megatrend. Rosenblatt’s analysis primarily concerns optical transceivers for data centers (800G, 1.6T, CPO), which use InP-based EML and CW lasers. Technologically, Modulight has a lot in common with this value chain, but the company is currently not a significant player in the datacom transceiver market in the same way as Coherent, Lumentum, or Broadcom.
Key points of interest for Modulight are:
- Modulight masters the exact production technology that is in short supply
Modulight has its own epitaxy and semiconductor laser production for both GaAs and InP technologies. The company manufactures InP-based structures in its own factory in Tampere and has invested heavily in production capacity.
If InP capacity becomes a global bottleneck, this kind of vertical integration is strategically valuable.
- Modulight could be a “seller of shovels” in the AI boom
Although Modulight is not a well-known manufacturer of 800G/1.6T transceivers, its expertise covers:
- DFB and DBR lasers
- InP epitaxy
- Chip manufacturing for semiconductor lasers
- Packaging of photonics components
These are the same fundamental technologies used in data center optics.
In theory, Modulight could:
- manufacture customized InP chips,
- act as a subcontractor,
- or license its technology to new markets.
- The biggest difference: wafer size
The core of Rosenblatt’s report is the transition to 6-inch InP wafers, which provides a massive increase in capacity.
This is exactly where Modulight appears to lag behind the industry’s largest players:
- Coherent is marketing the world’s first 6” InP fabs.
- Modulight’s public information points more toward smaller production batches and customized applications than massive data center volumes.
This means that while Modulight shares the same material platform (InP), it may not be able to meet the demand of hyperscalers with the same volume as the industry’s largest players.
From an investor’s perspective
If Rosenblatt is correct and InP laser capacity remains in deficit for years, Modulight’s value could increase for two reasons:
- Its own InP production capacity becomes strategically more valuable.
- Potential acquirers or partners may become interested in a ready-made InP fab in Europe.
But based on current information, the greatest direct benefit from the growth of AI data center optics seems to be heading more toward Coherent, Lumentum, and other volume players in the datacom market rather than Modulight.
An interesting follow-up question is: is Modulight’s current InP production technically compatible with the requirements of the datacom market for EML/CW lasers, or does it focus mainly on medical and industrial lasers? That will largely determine whether the company can truly benefit from this bottleneck or if the benefit remains indirect.”
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I’m no expert in the field, but I’ve been tossing some ideas around with AI. Based on this, I see the biggest question being whether Modulight wants to fill its capacity as a subcontractor for data center lasers. That is a major strategic decision. I could imagine that there is plenty of free capacity in the new factory, though! From a revenue perspective, the current operations are still just peanuts.
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It would certainly be interesting to hear how the company itself views the data center and semiconductor markets and its potential within them. If only this paragraph from the CEO’s review in the Q1/2026 report could be translated into plain English with less NDA jargon:
“The role of Modulight’s own vertically integrated production facility is increasingly highlighted in the current global situation and is continuously becoming a more important competitive factor. This is reflected as a positive momentum both in discussions with pharmaceutical companies and in negotiations for other high-value application-based accounts. Our technology and unique manufacturing capabilities located in Europe have clearly strengthened our customers’ trust in us as they make development choices related to future products. The vast majority of our projects are of a nature where the customer commits to us long-term as their sole technology partner. The United States remains the company’s primary focus, and our operations there are developing strongly. We have continued preparations for local production. We see opportunities particularly in flow cytometry, microscopy, the semiconductor industry, quantum technology, and the defense industry. In all these sectors, we have globally significant companies as our customers. During the past quarter, we had very interesting start-ups, for example, from the semiconductor industry, where our lasers appear to be very well-suited.”
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