Microsoft - Is there any limit to growth?

I always forget LinkedIn when talking about Microsoft. :slight_smile: According to the tweeter, LinkedIn is Microsoft’s undervalued goldmine: a professional network of a billion users, huge margins, and an increasingly stable revenue stream from LinkedIn Premium subscriptions.

https://x.com/QualityInvest5/status/1974926852817867063


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A snippet from today’s Vartista.

Everyone knows that Microsoft is a phenomenal elite entity

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EPS growth rate continues to be strong. Growth for the already ended fiscal year 2025 was 15.6%, and for fiscal year 2026, the consensus forecasts a 13.7% growth rate.

I made quite a bad mistake by selling Microsoft shares during Steve Ballmer’s tenure. Fortunately, I at least started buying them back in 2020.

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Owning Microsoft during Ballmer’s tenure must have been difficult. And the stock did crash in the dot-com bubble. The old highs were reached after ~15 years, even though earnings growth continued during Ballmer’s time.

Ballmer is one of the richest people in the world. Unlike paper-handed Bill Gates, Ballmer has held onto his Microsoft shares through thick and thin. :smiley:

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Morgan Stanley believes that Microsoft is the biggest winner in the AI boom. Companies are investing more and more in artificial intelligence and cloud services. One-third of IT leaders estimate that Microsoft will get the largest share of GenAI funding next year, and Azure is also expected to be the fastest-growing cloud service.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microsoft-remains-the-clear-genai-beneficiary-morgan-stanley-4279796

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Microsoft will continue to face challenges with its data centers well into 2026, as its Azure cloud service attracts more customers than its capacity can handle (Nebius likes this, and especially in the United States, server space is reportedly scarce. Even though Microsoft is building new centers at a frantic pace, the increased demand for AI and cloud services immediately consumes all capacity. Consequently, some customers are forced to switch to competitors, for example.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-forecasts-show-data-center-191543276.html

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Microsoft allows many sales and customer service employees to continue remote work :heart:, even as office days are increased for others.

According to the company, the work for these roles is different, so flexibility is needed. Microsoft is sticking to a more relaxed approach than many other tech companies.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microsoft-exempts-sales-staff-from-returntooffice-mandate--bloomberg-93CH-4299857


EDIT:

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella earned 96.5 million dollars in fiscal year 2025 – significantly more than last year.

This is mainly due to the company’s stock awards, which grew with Microsoft’s strong stock market year. Nadella has led the company since 2014 and has become known as a calm but ambitious leader who has led Microsoft to a new rise with the help of artificial intelligence and cloud services.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadellas-total-comp-rises-to-96point5-million.html

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Microsoft’s stock rose after it made a new deal with OpenAI.

Microsoft now owns approximately 27 percent of OpenAI and also gains extensive rights to the company’s future AI models until 2032. OpenAI will purchase more Azure services and can also collaborate with others, meaning both gain more freedom to develop their own projects.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microsoft-stock-rises-4-after-openai-deal-valued-at-135-billion-stake-4313563

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Below is a story about how in 2019 Microsoft invested a billion dollars in non-profit OpenAI, even though Bill Gates doubted the money would burn.

According to Satya Nadella, the decision was risky but important. And now years later, and after over 13 billion in additional investments, the success of ChatGPT has turned the risky investment into a jackpot – Microsoft’s stake is worth approximately 135 billion.

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Microsoft’s results exceeded expectations; revenue grew significantly and profit rose strongly. Cloud services were once again the engine of growth, especially Azure and other cloud solutions, which showed good growth. Microsoft 365 services and LinkedIn also continued to rise, and even the Windows and device segments saw a slight pick-up.

According to the company, investments in AI and the cloud are clearly beginning to show in the results. According to Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s “AI factory” is spreading widely across different industries, and CFO Amy Hood also emphasized strong demand for cloud services. :slight_smile:

Pretty good result :slight_smile:

https://x.com/earnings_guy/status/1983625923237707927


https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1983633318378975396


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https://x.com/Quartr_App/status/1983630493989126150


Company’s own materials



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Microsoft’s Satya Nadella and OpenAI’s Sam Altman as guests on the bg2-pod. Duration 1h 14min.

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Microsoft plans to increase its headcount, but thanks to artificial intelligence, each new employee brings more benefit than before.

According to Satya Nadella, new ways of working must first be learned with the help of AI, and only then can the headcount start to grow reasonably again.

Nadella compared the situation to when emails and Excel revolutionized work decades ago, stating that now almost all work starts with AI, e.g., ideation, planning, and collaboration.

" Key Points

  • Microsoft will expand headcount again, CEO Satya Nadella said on a podcast that aired Friday.
  • The employee base was stagnant at 228,000 in the fiscal year that ended in June, with more than 6,000 leaving through layoffs.
  • Over the next year or so, employees will “unlearn” and “relearn” work functions by adopting artificial intelligence tools, after which headcount growth can return, Nadella said."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/01/microsoft-ceo-headcount-leverage-ai.html

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Satya Nadella says that software pricing is shifting more from per-user to per-agent, as AI handles more and more tasks.

Companies are experimenting with usage-based billing, because AI consumes a lot of “computation” overall. So, in practice, going forward, customers will pay for how much work AI agents actually do.

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It’s interesting that Google is making inroads into Microsoft’s ecosystem for many European companies, which is generally considered a huge moat to climb over. Microsoft’s office licenses are so expensive nowadays, and prices increase every year, as Microsoft believes it can dictate prices to customers, that for public sector operators, it’s easily profitable to switch away from the MS camp :thinking:

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The article below states that Microsoft’s Copilot AI has not been adopted by companies as expected, even though the company itself emphasizes its broad user base. Many customers feel that the $30 monthly price does not yet justify the benefits received, and competition with Google, OpenAI, and other players is intensifying anyway.

Some companies, however, have increased their use of Copilot, and Microsoft is trying to boost demand with new models, as well as lower prices. Many are considering other options and are generally waiting for better added value from using Copilot.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/microsoft-faces-uphill-climb-to-win-in-ai-chatbots-with-copilot.html

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Jefferies maintains its Buy rating and price target of $675.00 for Microsoft, as Copilot adoption accelerates and AI agents begin to emerge.

According to them, the company’s strong position in cloud services supports growth, despite capacity challenges. Microsoft is still seen as a promising AI player in their eyes.

“Our key takes: Copilot adoption is accelerating, as product has matured, moving from gradual to enterprise-wide rollouts. Agents are emerging, but still early – 1st half of 1st inning. AI is driving growth in non-AI workloads, though MSFT faces capacity constraints. Strong core cloud demand continues with MSFT capturing share of migrations due to its end-to-end platform.”

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Microsoft is investing in renewable energy with a relaxed but determined approach.

Microsoft is building solar power in Mexico, Brazil, and Spain in cooperation with Powertrust and Zelestra.

The projects bring jobs, training, and clean electricity. Microsoft plans to use the production to balance the consumption of its data centers.

All this supports the goal of using 100% emissions-free electricity by 2025 and being carbon-negative by 2030. These measures can also, in the long term, lower costs and ease the company’s position as regulatory affairs tighten. :slight_smile:

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According to Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s large size slows down AI development, which is why he reportedly spends his weekends studying how startups build their “products”.

He emphasizes that leaders must “unlearn” old operating models and adopt a learn-it-all mindset, because without new skills and shared data, many AI projects will fail.

"

  • Satya Nadella says Microsoft’s size slows AI development, pushing him to study how startups build.
  • He told Mathias Döpfner that leaders must unlearn past success and adopt a “learn-it-all” mindset.
  • Most AI projects are bound to fail without new mindsets, tools, skills, and shared data, he added."
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Microsoft rejects claims of weakening AI demand.

The Information previously reported on declining sales targets, but according to Jefferies, data indicates the opposite, e.g., order backlog grew by 51 percent.

According to Microsoft, a capacity shortage indicates that demand still exceeds supply.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microsoft-defended-at-jefferies-after-report-of-soft-ai-tools-demand-4391470

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