Liquidity sorted out in one go.
Metacon has, through fulfilment of the requirements for release of the advance guarantee, gained access to EUR 3.96 million (corresponding to approximately SEK 43.3 million at today’s exchange rate) regarding the previously made advance payment from Motor Oil Hellas.
Here are Lucas’s comments as Metacon releases its Q2 results on Thursday. 
We forecast significant revenue growth, mainly due to a large Motor Oil order. However, profitability is expected to remain negative, as fluctuating raw material and consumable costs are likely to increase with revenue. In the upcoming report, our attention will focus on management’s comments regarding the progress of Motor Oil orders, insights into demand, and further information on the company’s financial situation.
@lucas.mattsson has prepared a new company report on Metacon for Q2.
All in all, Metacon’s Q2 report was good and largely in line with our expectations. Key takeaways from the report were that the timeline for the large Motor Oil project remains unchanged, which is positive, as milestone payments strengthen the financial position by supporting cash flow for both ongoing operations and new orders. As a result, we believe financial conditions have improved, and we are not overly concerned about short-term financing. With improved near-term revenue visibility, where our 2025 revenue forecasts are largely “secured” by the existing order backlog, we continue to believe that the current valuation offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. Consequently, we reiterate our Add recommendation and raise our target price to SEK 0.30 (from SEK 0.23), reflecting the reduced risk level.
Newsroom and from that, a €14.9 million installment for the Motor Oil project, came on schedule.
Newsroom A 20 MSEK loan was paid off.
Metacon’s future looks good as the hydrogen sector seems to be experiencing a budding rise more broadly, with FCEL taking off last week. BE has been leading the momentum for longer.
Here are @lucas.mattsson’s comments on Metacon’s recent order.
Metacon announced on Thursday that it has been selected as a supplier for the delivery of a 7.5 MW electrolyzer plant to Elektra Power SRL in Romania. The value of the deal is approximately EUR 7.1 million (approximately SEK 77.8 million). The deal is still subject to the signing of a final project agreement. While we consider the news positive and supportive of our current forecasts, it does not trigger immediate changes.
Almost up 70% from purchase. There seems to be a buzz in this sector now. The reasons for buying are at least strange; I saw three hydrogen Toyotas on display at the Jyväskylä rally and started thinking to myself that Toyota doesn’t do anything randomly. That’s where the idea came from..
Oops! This is a nice start to the weekend as this investment has yielded 100%. We’re in and holding on tight…
@Sijoittaja-alokas is also partly responsible for this… you write about these so enthusiastically.
I personally exited at the beginning of this last surge at 0.42x prices. Having participated in the 0.2 offering and watched the position trickle down to 0.07 prices, and finally having made a profit, I wanted to sell ‘into strength’. In the end, I admitted that I don’t even understand the industry, nor do I grasp what competitive advantage there is in selling technology licensed from PERIC in China. But I do realize that Hydrogen has had these boom-and-bust cycles before. Are Metacon’s own patents significant?
It would be interesting to hear the views of some (energy technology?) professional.
@lucas.mattsson has made a new extensive report on Metacon; the report itself is in English, and this non-PDF section has been translated into Finnish by AI.
As usual, this extensive report is also available for everyone to read.
Metacon has assembled a complementary product portfolio and secured significant electrolyzer orders, which has increased revenue and brought valuable reference customers. While securing a few large orders increases the likelihood of a commercial breakthrough, it does not guarantee a steady order book. However, considering the strong long-term demand outlook for green hydrogen and Metacon’s growing market position, we see potential for continued strong revenue growth. Supported by these drivers, we assess the stock’s risk-reward ratio as attractive. We revise our target price to SEK 0.70 per share (previously SEK 0.30) and reiterate our Add recommendation.
Quoted from the report:
Hello everyone! My name is Lucas Mattsson and I have analysis coverage at Metacon. Since our forum has now switched to multilingual mode, you can ask me questions and I will participate in the discussion here.
@lucas.mattsson has commented on Metacon acquiring parts from Hynion’s bankruptcy estate at a low price.
Metacon announced on Tuesday that it had acquired significant parts from Hynion Sverige AB’s bankruptcy estate for a modest purchase price of 3.5 MSEK. The acquired assets include new, high-quality components that were previously intended for hydrogen refueling stations under construction in Sweden. We view the news positively, as the components can be utilized in potential customer projects to improve profitability and in internal projects to reduce investments. As the scale of the transaction is small, we are not making immediate changes to our forecasts.
Here are @lucas.mattsson’s preliminary comments as Metacon reports its results on Thursday.
We predict significant revenue growth, primarily related to a large Motor Oil order. However, we expect profitability to remain negative, as fluctuating raw material and consumable costs are likely to increase with revenue. In the upcoming report, we will pay attention to management’s comments on the progress of the current order backlog, demand-related information, and a more detailed insight into the company’s financial situation.
Hi!
We will also conduct an interview with the company in connection with their Q3 report. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them here by replying to the post. I will try to collect as many questions as possible for the interview.
Lucas Mattsson
Analyst
Here is the new company report from Lucas after the Q3 releases.
Metacon’s Q3 figures fell short of our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenue recognition from the Motor Oil project. However, we consider this primarily a timing effect and believe the company continues to move in the right direction with significantly increased order backlog, revenue, and reduced operating loss. Although we have taken a more cautious view on our short- and medium-term forecasts, as the company has not yet secured a new major order as per our expectations, we still believe that the current valuation offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. Thus, we reiterate our Add recommendation but lower our target price to SEK 0.60 (previously SEK 0.70) to reflect the lower forecasts.
Renato has given his comments on Metacon’s received advance payment.
Metacon has received an advance payment of EUR 2.1 million for the previously announced 7.5 MW electrolyzer contract in Romania, which confirms the project is moving into the implementation phase and supports short-term cash sufficiency. As the order was already included in our order book and revenue assumptions, the payment does not change our forecasts but strengthens our positive view of the company’s ability to execute projects.
A question for the experts regarding data center construction. Could fuel cells be used to improve their electricity production? As I understand it, Finland is attractive precisely because of its good and apparently cheap electricity. But is there enough energy for those needs? Building fuel cells, of course, costs money, but what about in the long run? Predictably, money is the deciding factor in these cases too. So, who pays? Currently, I have a strong feeling that they are just crowding in here because of cheap electricity, without caring whether the grid can handle it.
Lucas’s comments on how Metacon became the majority shareholder of Botnia Hydrogen.
Metacon recently announced that it has increased its ownership in Botnia Hydrogen AB and has become the majority shareholder. The transaction was carried out through a set-off issue and does not affect the company’s current cash position. We view the arrangement positively, as it supports Metacon’s expansion into the growing hydrogen-based road transport sector, although the immediate financial impact is likely to be limited.
