At these prices, the dividend yield is starting to look quite impressive. If and when the same dividends are paid next year, it’s a good opportunity for a long-term holder to keep adding throughout the year. It seems that those Kauppalehti articles are really pushing the share price down, or then they are aware of the future condition of Manta.
5 Likes
Down 12% from the peak in a couple of weeks. Kauppalehti’s reporting has been really negative. Sometimes I wonder who pays for these stories.
If you top up at today’s price, the cost per share after dividends will be just over €5.7. I see good upside potential and little risk at these prices.
8 Likes
If next spring 2027 a fair dividend is distributed again, and then in 2028 something like 0.45 EUR/share, then this could actually make some sense.
6 Likes
It looks like the spring forecast for 28 is between 57c-60c.
Manta has certainly had a habit of always providing a nice surprise.
17 Likes
Mandatum will publish its Q1 report on Friday, May 8th. Exceptionally, we expect Mandatum’s result to have slipped into a loss, which is, however, purely explained by a change in accounting methods. On the other hand, we estimate that operational development has remained on track, and the result of the asset management business—the most important part for the group’s value—has grown significantly from the comparison period. In the report, our focus is especially on the outlook for new sales, as the roadmap for the balance sheet and profit distribution over the coming years is very clear following the updated strategy and the sale of PE investments. We will review Mandatum’s result in a live broadcast starting at 08:25 on InderesTV.
20 Likes
This is an interesting situation. I added slightly to my position yesterday and I’m waiting for the report with great anticipation.
Exceptionally, I am going to the Annual General Meeting to hear the management’s report. Hopefully, I’ll get some more concrete information (kättä pidempää) there.
I’m maintaining a 30% allocation of Mandatum in my portfolio and have sold off two riskier positions to make room. My belief in the company’s willingness to pay a high dividend remains strong.
However, this isn’t as high-risk a stock as REITs or BDCs, the latter of which especially have been hit hard in the US markets. Yet, the dividend yield as a percentage is at the level of very risky companies, at least for this year and hopefully for a couple of years to come.
What I am also looking forward to, in addition to Inderes’ good summary, are the first steps toward internationalization. Whether the company finds its place in the Nordics and Northern Europe, becoming a major regional player and achieving economies of scale like Nordea, remains to be seen.
12 Likes
I sold all my holdings last month, even though I consider Mandatum to be the best asset management firm in Hesuli (Helsinki Stock Exchange). The reason was that I am a Mandatum asset management client, and although the products and service are good, I noticed that I hardly use Mandatum’s expert services anymore because I prefer sparring about investing with AI. I also believe that I get more impartial answers to my questions from AI; after all, an asset manager’s agenda is always to sell the firm’s own products. Sparring with a professional, on the other hand, has been my main reason for being a client. AI is a tireless sparring partner—it’s willing to dig for information, it’s always ready to clarify—and best of all, it’s always available.
I believe the number of investors like me is growing, which will cause the business model of most asset management firms to collapse or at least shrink from its current state. I see platform providers like Nordnet as the winners in this shift, as they will likely vacuum up assets onto their own platforms. Nordnet could, for instance, integrate an asset management agent directly into its platform, allowing customers to ponder different options and allocations directly within the Nordnet interface.
If one wants to invest in Mandatum’s investment products, sufficiently similar products are available through stockbrokers (and I believe it’s even possible to invest in some of Mandatum’s own products directly through Nordnet, for example).
6 Likes
I have to push back on this a bit. The use of AI will certainly increase, but it won’t eliminate asset management firms.
Where they are strong is in their ability to act as an impartial or neutral party when a company, estate, or wealthy family invests their assets.
9 Likes
I also consider it highly unlikely that the need for asset management firms will disappear entirely, but I believe that part of the business will be lost either directly to AI or to players like Nordnet. This will likely lead to a situation where the pie that all asset managers are eating from does not grow at the same rate, or even shrinks.
Exactly, and if an asset management firm offers an AI assistant, it’s only natural that they code it to recommend their own services.
What I’ve been thinking about is that Sampo used to say that if interest rates rise by 1%, Sampo makes €100M. Mandatum hasn’t really drawn similar comparisons yet? Of course, it’s probably not that straightforward; with a €15 billion pie, if you generate +1% yield for customers (amounting to €150M), an additional 1% management fee from that would only be €1.5M.
It would also be nice to understand the bending of the negative organic capital generation curve as the technical interest rate-based portfolio runs down—specifically, at what point the turning point is expected to occur in favor of fee income versus the capital released from the winding down of the insurance portfolio. Also, when is the technical interest rate portfolio expected to be fully run down? In other words, when will the last excess capital be released for distribution?
Right now, I personally assume that for this year and next, an 85–87c dividend will be sufficient for distribution, then at least 40–60c for the following years until that turning point occurs and fee income begins to grow faster than what remains available for distribution from the runoff portfolio.
14 Likes
A turnaround is expected within a few years. That is exactly the suspenseful part—how the assets under management (AUM) and the capital-light business will evolve.
It has been estimated that there will be enough excess capital to distribute until 2034–2035. Many have the misconception that after a couple of “big hits” and the spring '28 payout of 57c–60c, the distributable funds will be gone. Of course, it will moderate significantly.
Now I’m waiting for the market reaction to the earnings release. Many don’t understand the reason behind a potential negative result in Q1, even though it has no impact on cash flow, dividends, etc. The growth of the capital-light business and AUM, along with progress in the Central European markets, is the whole point of this investment story.
I took out an investment loan and, if necessary, I will use it to acquire about 16,000 shares (lappu) if the business performance was okay during a challenging Q1 (Iran situation Feb 28----) and if day traders take advantage of people’s ignorance to try and drive the share price down further when the results are published.
I’m also considering attending the Annual General Meeting; after all, this is quite a “gem of Hesuli” (Helsinki Stock Exchange).
16 Likes
I’ll likely have to add more to my position if they really manage to drive the share price down tomorrow. The run-off portfolio (meaning its returns) will indeed yield enough to be distributed for a long time; the portfolio was estimated at over a billion in 2021. If it generates, say, 50M in profit per year while the amount of solvency capital continues to decrease, there should certainly be extra capital to distribute until at least 2035, right?
19 Likes
Good morning, everyone!
Just a reminder that Mandatum’s earnings livestream starts at 8:25 AM, hosted by Kassu 
18 Likes
January–March 2026 in brief
- Client assets under management (AuM) increased by 10% year-on-year to EUR 15.4 (31 March 2025: 14.0) billion. Net cash flow was strong at EUR 248 (256) million.
- Profit before taxes from capital-light business rose by 35% from the previous year, totaling EUR 26.8 (19.9) million. Fee income increased by 10% following the growth in assets under management and amounted to EUR 20.6 (18.8) million.
- Net financial result decreased to EUR -46.8 (51.8) million, weakened in particular by a EUR 36.2 million one-off negative impact caused by a change in the discount rate assumption, as well as low investment returns.
Mandatum changed the discount rate curve used in its IFRS 17 reporting on 31 March 2026 to improve the predictability of earnings reporting and the transparency of the net financial result. The change in the interest rate curve, i.e., the discount rate assumption change, had a one-off negative impact on the result for the first quarter. However, the change does not affect Mandatum’s cash flows, solvency, or dividend payment capacity; instead, it is a reallocation of the IFRS result, and the impact is expected to level out over the long term. - Profit before taxes was EUR -25.9 (62.0) million and included a EUR 36.2 million one-off negative impact on the net financial result caused by the change in the discount rate assumption. Profit before taxes excluding the discount rate assumption change was EUR 10.3 million.
- The cost/income ratio from asset management¹ fell by 6 percentage points and improved to 49 (55)% as a result of the growth in assets under management.
- Organic capital generation exceeded the result for the period.
- Earnings per share were EUR -0.02 (0.10) and organic capital generation per share was EUR 0.10 (0.17).
- Return on equity² (ROE) was -3.5 (12.4)%.
- The Solvency II ratio, including the calculated dividend accrual and excluding the impact of transitional measures on technical provisions, rose to 203 (31 Dec 2025: 169)%, mainly due to the completion of the sale of Saxo Bank A/S shares.
20 Likes
Interim Report Q1 2026
13 Likes
BLUF: Entire investment portfolio tied up in Mandatum, 15,550 shares at an average cost (AC) of ~€5.5.
TLDR: Cash position is healthy, operational performance was excellent, accounting looks ugly.
Assets under Management (AuM) grew 10% year-on-year to €15.4 billion (+10%). This is a strong figure. It shows that Mandatum is growing faster than the market. Many competitors are struggling just to keep assets in-house.
Organic capital generation seems soft; €0.10 per quarter would mean €0.40 per year. It is lower than my target of €0.60/year, but Q1 in asset management is cost-heavy and quieter. If net inflows (€248 million) continue at this rate, organic capital generation will accelerate toward the end of the year as new assets start generating fees.
Earnings per share (EPS) was -0.02 (0.10). This causes algorithms and bots to dump the stock. Retail investors (tuulipuku) might also get jittery if they don’t take a proper look under the hood. For those who bought in hopes of quick gains or solely for the dividend being paid in a couple of weeks, the EPS figure is terrifying: “The company is bleeding money.”
Net financial income fell to -46.8 (51.8) million. As I understand it, Mandatum has a massive portfolio of bonds on its balance sheet. When market interest rates rose in early 2026, the market value of these existing bonds dropped immediately. In accounting, this impairment must be recorded as a “loss” in the net financial income. If and when Mandatum holds these bonds until maturity, the money will return with interest. Additionally, there is a significant amount of IFRS 17 noise in the figure.
My plan is to continue monitoring AuM growth 
as well as organic capital generation and the cost-to-income ratio. I can withstand soft quarters, but a year or two in the wrong direction might lead to switching horses. An AC of €5.5 provides a solid cushion, and now it looks like I might even be able to average down. I will use the entire €13K dividend to buy more Mandatum between May 21st and September 30th, 2026. Target purchase price €5.20–€5.30. I believe the price will dip due to market impatience and uncertainty. My goal is the year 2040, when I retire. According to my calculations, I will have 30–40K shares in my portfolio then, and on top of my pension, I’ll receive €25–40K/year in dividends into my Equity Savings Account (OST).
53 Likes
Talk of the dividend stream drying up in the near future is false, the CEO just said in a Kauppalehti interview New contacts and sales are being built in Central Europe.
33 Likes
Mandatum’s dividend dip already started a couple of weeks ago when the share price was 7.4 (the day’s ATH). So it has come down about -12.5% from the peak. The dividend detaches in 5 days, so there is still a chance to get in on the dividend at bargain prices. As a result, is the Manta stock now correcting upwards?
7 Likes
Mandatum’s IR team’s results video has been released!
The video briefly reviews Mandatum’s first-quarter results and key successes.
29 Likes
Go watch the earnings presentation. They presented the new discount rate curve at around the 12:30 mark: Q1 Results
A real-world example:
-
If you promise to pay a friend €1,000 in 20 years:
-
At a 5% interest rate, its present value might be ~€377
-
At a 2% interest rate, the present value is ~€673
-
The same future payment thus looks much “heavier” when the discount rate decreases. This is essentially what happened with Mandatum — on the scale of a massive insurance portfolio.
7 Likes