OP raises its recommendation to Add (Reduce) and the target price to 6.75 euros (6.00). OP forecasts the dividend to be one euro per share.
Mandatum’s growth
in asset management has continued significantly faster than its peers, and the
leverage of new sales on fee income has proven stronger than we previously
estimated, thanks to tight cost control. We have raised
Mandatum’s Q3 result was clearly better than our expectations due to returns from the balance sheet investment portfolio. The figures for the group’s most important growth engine, wealth management, also developed strongly, which also led to a small increase in our earnings forecasts. Despite the strong growth outlook, we still consider the stock to be highly priced, so we reiterate our reduce recommendation. We revise our target price to EUR 6.0 per share (previously EUR 5.6) in line with our dividend model.
Mandatum’s key figures, i.e., wealth management new sales and cost efficiency, continued their strong development in the third quarter. […] In addition, net financial income was higher than our expectations due to equity returns, so Mandatum’s result clearly exceeded our forecasts. Q3 pre-tax profit was EUR 55.7 million (forecast EUR 44.0 million) and earnings per share were EUR 0.09.
Phew… will the wings bear the burden of my dividends… or how did that Kirka song go… if the dividend is one euro, the dividend % will soar. However, in dividend frenzy, the share price easily goes over 7. My largest portfolio position would then be approx. 100%. The only thing I wonder about is the inconsistency of OP and Inderes analyses.
OP sharpened up a bit, as they previously estimated far too low. Now Inderes has become a bit cautious; it’s probably just quarterly considerations, one SHOULD look beyond 2030. Mandatum has already said that the with-profit portfolio will not be empty in 2023, there will still be plenty to distribute in the 2030s, and at the same time, the capital-light business is expected to continue expanding. Operations have only just been opened in Central Europe, and it was said even before the general meeting that one salesperson sells 1M or 100M in the same way, meaning it scales sufficiently. So, no massive recruitment for the Luxembourg office just to sit around, but sensible growth. Similarly, institutions have been brought into the game from Sweden; there’s money… In Sweden, wealth has accumulated in families for a hell of a lot longer than here in Finland. Here, millionaire clubs are only now starting to swell, with inherited and other wealth. Money attracts money, as they say. The first 100k is the hardest to accumulate; after that, the sum automatically starts to grow. Mandatum only enters the game at +500k.
There’s a whole bunch of us managing Manta in our portfolio. Today is payday for us. Mandatum has supported the Finnish alpine skiing national team for years, with rather meager results. But now it hit big.
Eduard Hallberg celebrated on the third step of the Levi World Cup podium! With a Mandatum beanie on his head. Slalom is very popular in Central Europe. That’s why opening a new sales office in Luxembourg was perfectly timed. Niemisvirta is probably already planning to hire another salesperson for that Lilliputian state.
The Scope Award 2026 gala awarded the Mandatum Fixed Income Total Return Fund as the best in the category “Best Bond Global Aggregate EUR” in the German fund market. The prestigious Scope Award is an annual recognition for funds that have consistently succeeded in generating strong risk-adjusted returns compared to other similar funds. This year, 119 funds competed in the Best Bond Global Aggregate EUR category. Mandatum’s Fixed Income Total Return Fund is an actively managed strategy that primarily invests in the Nordic and European investment grade markets.
Mandatum was rated Finland’s best private wealth manager in Kantar Prospera’s latest survey. The Top 5 were as follows:
Although the sample size is quite limited (503 individuals) and thus does not precisely represent the entire market, the top position is nevertheless a strong indication of customer satisfaction. This is, of course, no surprise, as the company has ranked among the top positions before (second place after Ålandsbanken in 2023 and 2024). At the same time, the assets under management in this segment have developed very strongly (+44% Q3’23–Q3’25):
Private Banking (investable assets +500 TEUR) and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (investable assets in millions) are indeed Mandatum’s clear focus area in Finland. The long-term growth outlook in the market is also strong, as structural factors are generally favorable (more on these in, for example, the comprehensive report). Of course, almost all asset management companies try to get their share of this, and as an example, Nordea and Aktia elevated Private Banking clients to a central piece of their growth plans in their latest strategy updates. Competition is thus fierce, but Mandatum’s high customer satisfaction and good reputation undoubtedly help it stand out.
Mandatum has been committed to the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) since 2011. In accordance with these principles, the company is committed to integrating ESG factors into its investment process, acting as an active owner, and promoting the principles of responsible investment. The annual PRI assessment measures responsible investment practices and the implementation of the UN Principles for Responsible Investment in investment activities. The assessment received now covers the operating year 2024.
In the latest assessment, Mandatum participated in a total of twelve categories. The company achieved the highest five-star rating in seven categories: active indirect fixed income, indirect private equity, indirect real estate, direct listed equities, direct real estate, direct private equity, and direct corporate bonds. In addition, the company participated for the first time in the passive indirect fixed income category, where it immediately achieved four stars.
PRI is an international non-profit organization that annually assesses its members’ investment activities and responsible investment practices. The assessment tells organizations how the principles of responsible investment are implemented in investment activities across different asset classes and which areas of investment activities need development.
The 2025 PRI reports can be viewed here:
That final comment about dividends, “I want to emphasize the word over” when he spoke about over a billion in dividends. Surely, that can only be read as meaning that the amount exceeding a billion that is being distributed is not small.
Regarding dividends. If one reflects on the over one billion to be distributed, then if next year the performance-based dividend were 0.15 + an additional dividend of 0.85, an additional dividend of approximately 1.15 would remain for the next two years, i.e., 0.575 per year, plus an estimated performance-based dividend of 0.15. So, would the following years also be 72.5 c/share? Are analysts’ dividend forecasts therefore a bit pessimistic? The assumption is that this performance-based dividend would also be growing and that there would continue to be enough calculation basis interest rate to distribute?
The growth story of the Finnish technology company Novatron gains new momentum with an investment from Mandatum Asset Management’s Growth Equity II fund. The investment supports the international expansion and commercialization of innovations of the company specializing in infrastructure construction automation.
The MAM Growth Equity II fund invests 12 million euros in the Finnish company Novatron, a pioneer in infrastructure construction digitalization, which develops machine control systems, sensor technology, OEM components, and software. The company has grown over 30 years to become a leading player in the field in Finland and the Nordic countries. The investment enables Novatron to accelerate growth, expand its product portfolio, and strengthen its position in the global market.
Novatron’s technologies make construction more precise, faster, and more cost-effective. Machine control systems guide earthmoving machinery using GNSS and sensor technology, which reduces manual labor and improves accuracy: according to studies, excavation work can be accelerated by approximately 27% and productivity can increase by up to 50%. Solutions based on Novatron’s technology improve data and site management in infrastructure projects, reduce errors, and can lower project costs by several percentage points compared to traditional construction methods.
