At what pace does Mandatum need to sell its products so that organically the result would cover that €0.6-0.7 dividend, e.g., with an 80% payout, by 2030? I think I calculated it once, but @Sauli_Vilen / @Kasper_Mellas surely have a refined view?
Would this current pace of €160M/q be okay?
Mandatum’s Head of Asset Management Sarvikivi in an interview with Amwatch: Mandatum prepares to charm European investors with niche products and Luxembourg office (behind a paywall)
Here are a couple of relevant excerpts from the article 
“It is now too early to say how large our team in Luxembourg will be and on which countries we will focus most in the beginning as that depends also on the people we will recruit to work in Luxembourg and their professional background and contacts. But we have existing clients in, for example, France and Germany. Expansion is taking place step by step and as the first step, we are sending our Head of International Clients to Luxembourg,” Sarvikivi explains.
“From a purely financial perspective, opening a sales office in Luxembourg is not a very large investment for Mandatum as we already have a fund management company there. Rather, it is an investment of our time and effort,” Sarvikivi notes.
“Initially, our spearhead products will be our award-winning products, for example Nordic High Yield and Fixed Income Total Return funds. They are most likely the easiest to market in the beginning as many of our investors are large market players who are themselves highly professional and selective,” Sarvikivi says.
“Our international team has been doing the same good work of knocking doors for several years now, which is now starting to bear fruit. Of course, it helps a lot that our funds have received awards and come out on top in several surveys and ratings. But when long-time work starts to yield results, it is a great feeling,” Sarvikivi says and adds:
”Although I had high expectations when starting in this role, I am also positively surprised, and it is nice to have joined the company at this point and now have the possibility to help accelerate this growth myself.”
For Mandatum’s result to cover a €0.6 per-share dividend with an 80% payout ratio, the net profit would need to be €400 MEUR with the current number of shares, meaning profit before taxes of €500 MEUR at a 20% tax rate. Assuming our forecasts for other segments are in the right ballpark, this would require more than quadrupling the asset management fee income compared to the current year. Our current forecast for profit before taxes in 2030 is approximately €200 MEUR, and this includes an assumption of average new sales exceeding €200 MEUR per quarter. Thus, significantly higher sales figures would be needed to reach that scenario, as the shrinking interest rate-based portfolio gradually reduces the investment returns of the group’s own balance sheet.
Analyst consensus, by the way, has turned rather skeptical about the reasonableness of the company’s current valuation, similar to us. While no one can complain about Mandatum’s development and outlook, the price tag must also be right for a sufficient expected return.
Antti Saari of OP vlogged that they might pay even 3 EUR / share in dividends over the next four years. I second Antti, as Mandatum’s management has so far always given “a little” leeway on top of their previous vision. The discount rate isn’t falling like a rocket, and capital will continue to be released from there long after 2030. If fee income continues to grow, then around 2035, we will be firmly supported by a capital-light earnings engine.
Thank you very much. I recall that during the CMD, I scribbled down different scenarios on graph paper and concluded that a realistic dividend yield in 2030 would be something in the 4-5% range. This is based on current information, of course; it’s always possible that sales will start to pick up at an insane pace because the customer base (institutions) has such deep pockets and the TAM is enormous.
Fundamentally, the current share price level of ~€6 with a stable 4-5% dividend yield and still growing earnings feels quite acceptable. So, I’m not very skeptical about the €5.4-6 share price level — at which I believe the stock will indeed trade for a couple of years.
Mandatum is making changes to its group structure by centralizing the operations of internal services into one service company. The aim of the changes is to simplify the group structure and thereby, among other things, lighten administrative work.
Within Mandatum, one service company directly owned by Mandatum Oyj will be formed, which will provide internal support services to the entire group.
As part of the change, Mandatum Oyj has acquired the shares of Mandatum Life Palvelut Oy and Mandatum Asset Management Palvelut Oy from its subsidiaries. Next, Mandatum Asset Management Palvelut Oy will merge into Mandatum Life Palvelut Oy as a sister company merger in accordance with the Companies Act. The planned implementation date for the merger is 31.12.2025, and no merger consideration will be paid.
Same structure as Ålandsbanken? This in principle enables selling services externally as well. I wonder if Trader will go there too…
I thank Kasper for the analysis.
This Finnish stock market is so completely under BR’s control that our thoughts or analyses don’t have much significance.
In the recent past, Orion and Fortum come to mind. Absolutely proper shorting with all the money. Everyone knew that better times were coming for Orion, and the price was hammered from €45 to €32.xx. Luckily, I bought at the bottom and sold on the rise, the last at €68, and Fortum was offered at €10 before the dividend, the last ones went for over €15 as I no longer see sufficient return potential. I’m starting to look at Manta as a cornerstone of the portfolio. You buy, for example, now at €5.80 and take a €1 dividend, even if the share price remains at €4.8, you have a stock that will then consistently generate solid cash for years and years with a good return, and you’ll have time to observe the development of the businesses. No one knows where things will be in 10 years.
And of course, everyone can invest their returns in a way that suits them.
Mandatum’s target until 2028 is an annual growth of 10% in the profit of capital-light business.
Knowing the company, that is likely a minimum level with a small buffer for the capital-light business to cover the profit impact of the old business’s winding down… If the profit impact of the old business halves over the next 6 years, this equation sounds very good – i.e., conservative.
In addition, the distributable funds will remain at a good level even beyond that, at least until 2030-35.
Mandatum’s CEO Petri Niemisvirta was talking about his company as an investment. 
It was indeed a very convincing presentation by Niemisvirta today, and I gained a lot of new information. I’ll keep it in my portfolio.
OP raises the target price to 6.00 euros (5.80), but reiterates its Reduce recommendation.
Kassu and Sale were anticipating, as Mandatum will publish its Q3 results on Tuesday. 
*We expect Mandatum’s Q3 results to be in line with the comparison period. We estimate that sales of investment products have maintained their positive momentum, and that the earnings growth of asset management, which is crucial for the company’s value, has remained strong. On the report, our attention is especially on the outlook for new sales, as the steps for the coming years regarding the balance sheet and dividend distribution are very clear after the updated strategy and the sales of PE investments. We will go through Mandatum’s results in a live broadcast starting at 08:25 AM on InderesTV
Tomorrow, we’ll have another earnings live stream from 8:25 AM onwards, so come join us online to check it out!
July-September 2025 in brief
January-September 2025 in brief
Outlook for 2025 (unchanged)
Here are some quick morning comments on top of the live broadcast:
Sales performed well again, but this is naturally to be expected given the high growth expectations embedded in the share price. Therefore, Q3 did not offer any big surprises. Cost efficiency in asset management was somewhat better than our expectations, which may partly be explained by seasonal factors (e.g., reversal of holiday pay provisions). Group expenses, however, were somewhat higher than forecasted, so today during the earnings call, we will try to dig for information from management about how the overall cost structure developed. This is somewhat difficult to grasp for the company, as it does not itemize its expenses in quarterly reports.
The earnings beat in net financial income was explained by equity returns, which were significantly better than anticipated. These do not follow any specific index, making forecasting quite challenging. Accrual items, on the other hand, were as expected based on the quarter’s interest rate movements. However, the significance of net financial income at the quarterly level is very small, and more important is the development of market interest rates, which ultimately strongly determine the return level of the interest-rate-weighted investment portfolio in the longer term.
Here are OP’s Antti Saari’s thoughts regarding Manta’s Q3.
OP’s Chief Analyst Antti Saari reviews Mandatum’s Q3 result and the company’s financial position in the video.
Sauli was interviewing Mandatum’s CEO Petri Niemisvirta right after the Q3 results release.
OP raises its recommendation to Add (Reduce) and the target price to 6.75 euros (6.00). OP forecasts the dividend to be one euro per share.
Mandatum’s growth
in asset management has continued significantly faster than its peers, and the
leverage of new sales on fee income has proven stronger than we previously
estimated, thanks to tight cost control. We have raised
