Good news like these as well
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Dividend Hawks @Kasper_Mellas and @Sauli_Vilen have prepared a new, comprehensive report: Mandatum laaja raportti: Osinkolinko laulaa vielä pitkään - Inderes
And again, as a reminder, comprehensive reports are available for everyone to read.
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I’ve been wondering for a couple of days now if one could get a higher return by selling the position now and buying back after the dividend. Somehow I see that the drop could be much steeper than just the dividend’s percentage share. What do others think?
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On what basis could the decline be steeper? What if, after selling today, the stock still rises by 20 cents? Or more? Or then it falls? What if it rises even after the dividend detachment? These are perennial questions.
Dividends received by an ordinary stock saver are partly tax-exempt and partly taxable capital income. Of the dividends received by an individual and an estate, 85 percent is taxable capital income and 15 percent is tax-exempt income.
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Usually, companies on the Helsinki stock exchange that rely heavily on dividend yield have been more profitable purchases in the summer than just before the dividend. Buying pressure accumulates in the spring before the dividend, and that keeps the share price high.
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Janne Sarvikivi from Nordea appointed as Head of Mandatum’s Wealth Management Business.
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Indeed, a new comprehensive report on Mandatum is now out. No particularly dramatic changes occurred, but the dividend distribution outlook is clearly clearer compared to the start of our coverage. At the same time, our assessment of the quality of the wealth management business has improved, and sales to institutional clients, in particular, have performed significantly better than our expectations in recent years. These factors explain the increase in the target price during the eighteen-month coverage period (€4.2 → €5.4). The company’s investment story has not essentially changed since its listing.
The forecast picture is quite clear, as the contraction of the guaranteed interest rate portfolio trend-wise reduces investment income. For individual years, earnings may, of course, also grow if investment returns are better than normal or the comparison period is weaker than usual. Structurally, however, the group’s earnings are declining, according to our forecasts, until around the 2030s. After this, the growth of wealth management should compensate for the impact of declining investment income, at which point the group-level earnings will also turn to growth. A downward-trending earnings curve is not a problem, as funds are released for distribution from the contracting business, and at the same time, value-creating wealth management grows. Before long, we will thus be in a situation where the balance sheet’s own investment activities become merely a side note. However, net financial income (earnings from the guaranteed interest rate portfolio + returns from PE investments) will still contribute a large part of the earnings for many years.
Dividend distribution will continue abundantly, and we assume Mandatum will distribute approximately its organic capital generation as dividends annually, as they did for the years 2023–2024. Mandatum currently does not have a proper dividend policy (the old “target” is practically already met), so this will surely be updated at the summer capital markets day. That organic capital generation (OGC) covers, in our forecasts, the growth of Mandatum’s own funds (mainly through earnings development) and the capital released from the contraction of the guaranteed interest rate portfolio. Funds will also be released from the sales of PE investments in the coming years (from Saxo at the end of 2025 and Enento estimated within a few years), but these are not yet included in our dividend forecasts. These will not remain as cash on the balance sheet; instead, the dividend distribution will ultimately either be higher than our forecasts (e.g., a larger one-off additional dividend) or funds will be allocated to acquisitions. More detailed speculation on these can be found in the report.
Mandatum is thus largely doing what it promised at the time of its listing: growing wealth management, contracting the guaranteed interest rate business, and distributing the released capital as dividends to its owners. However, valuation is a concern at current levels, even though there is little to criticize in the company’s performance or outlook in recent years. However, looking forward, shareholder return relies solely on dividend yield due to the declining earnings curve. So, if you are looking for a good company at a good price, only the first of these is currently true for Mandatum. Our estimate for a reasonable share price did, however, increase from our previous update, which is explained by the rise in dividend distribution forecasts as a result of the balance sheet reduction efforts. Regarding earnings development, no need for significant forecast changes was seen at this point.
Early next week, we will also film a video with Sauli, so stay tuned. Also, please send in any questions you may have.
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It depends on the price and how long ago it was bought (tax implications).
I’m in a situation where selling isn’t sensible, because I would have to pay higher taxes than the gross dividend, as I was able to buy cheaply then, around the time of the separation from Sampo, and some came earlier as inheritance in the form of Sampo.
That’s why I am an “eternal” owner, unless, for example, there’s an acquisition, which is not impossible at all. 
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I’d be interested to hear your perspectives on the attractiveness of Mandatum’s own funds to investors, especially Nordic High Yield, Senior Loan Strategy, and the alternative basket. How do they compare to their peers?
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Mandatum announced that it has appointed M.Sc. (Econ.) Janne Sarvikivi as the new CEO of its wealth management business.
…
Saarikivi moves to Mandatum from Nordea,..
Saari or Sarvi @Kasper_Mellas ?
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Sarvikivi.
And then fill all the characters…
And even more
Mandatum’s product offering is of very high quality, and the company has regularly received various recognitions for this (most recently: https://www.inderes.fi/releases/mandatum-oyj-mandatumin-nordic-high-yield-rahasto-kolmatta-kertaa-euroopan-paras).
In my opinion, the most important indicator of product quality is the company’s rocket-like rise in domestic asset manager rankings.
(Source: Manda Q4 earnings presentation)
Even 5 years ago, Mandatum was a clear challenger in the market, but now it has risen to compete for top positions. This rise could not have happened without high-quality products. The same applies to the company’s excellent new sales in recent years, both domestically and internationally. Although the market situation has suited the company’s product offering excellently, the excellent success of the products is behind that tremendous sales. Petri commented on the success of portfolio management at the 12-minute mark in the Q4 interview: https://www.inderes.fi/videos/mandatum-q424-osinkoyllatys
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By the way, who is the one in the graph who has quickly collapsed from first place to seventh?
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eQ. Here is a slide from their earnings presentation that goes through this:
It illustrates well how important returns are in these games. Real estate funds have had a couple of tougher years and it immediately hits hard in the ranking. Discussion on this topic has already taken place earlier in the eQ thread, and any further discussions related to eQ can be continued there https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/eq-tylsista-tylsin-rahakone/3150/554?u=sauli_vilen
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Is the 0.66e dividend included in your 5.4e target price, or is the estimate already post-dividend?
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Following Mandatum’s comprehensive report, the anticipated video is now also available for viewing. Indeed, Kasper and Sauli are speaking. 
Mandatum’s earnings outlook relies on generous dividend distribution during the gradual winding down of its interest-rate-based business. Future growth is sought from capital-light asset management and life insurance, where the company has profiled itself as a high-value-added product house. Analysts Kasper Mellas and Sauli Vilén delve deeper into the company.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:21 Mandatum as a company
02:37 Changes in view
04:40 Core competence in asset management: interest rate products and alternative investments
09:00 Mandatum’s difference from other listed asset managers
10:20 Interest-rate-based business
14:45 Declining results and forecasts
16:36 Generous profit distribution
20:23 Valuation stretched tight
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Yes, the target price is adjusted by the dividend detachment. Mandatum’s entire valuation relies on the dividend discount model (DDM), and thus large dividends naturally reduce the company’s value.
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Mandatum is clearly of interest, and I thought that Mandatum is a suitable company to continue the Nordic Stocks concept, so here’s an AI-generated English podcast to support the video filmed by Mikael, Sauli, and Kasper! 
Please comment, perhaps in the coffee room, whether this brought any added value or was just a waste of time! 
Edit: The whole of Spotify seems to be down, at least temporarily, so if you only see the image “Error: Server Error”, this should not be interpreted as our view on Mandatum. 
Hopefully, they’ll get their servers fixed soon!
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OP updates its recommendations in its Q1 preview and lowers the recommendation from REDUCE to SELL. The target price is slightly raised from €5.40 to €5.50. Operating profit is forecast to be slightly higher than consensus at €77 million (consensus €73 million).
But what dividend-hungry Finns are naturally interested in is that they forecast that Mandatum has the prerequisites to pay a €0.66 HUGE dividend also for 2025.
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In Mandatum’s recent consensus, a few observations 
(btw, you can find it here: https://www.mandatum.fi/en/group/investors/financial-information/consensus-estimates/)
Interest is focused especially on the dividend line. For next spring, the median of these 5 analysts is €0.53/share, but the dispersion is a huge €0.33-0.86! The lower end expects the dividend to follow the guidance given in connection with the IPO (3 years at least EUR 500 million), while the upper end expects the company to return all its organically generated capital and all capital released from Saxo. For the next two years, the median is quite well in line with the company’s organic capital generation, but here too the upper end expects an additional return (perhaps Enento sales?). The lower end, again, expects a stable €0.33/share going forward. Those lower ends seem a bit silly, as the company has quite directly stated that all organic capital can be distributed, and this has been the practice during its short stock exchange history. The upper end, on the other hand, is entirely possible and one can certainly make Excel bend to that, but it practically means that everything possible is distributed 
Regarding EPS, the forecasts are even touchingly close to each other, and thus the differences in dividends come from the balance sheet side, not the income statement.
Btw, I have to promote this here too. This week, @Kasper_Mellas and I made a slightly more informal finance podcast, where the focus was especially on companies. At the end, there was a playful long shot on future industry arrangements, and Mandatum ended up on my slip 
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