Doesn’t this waiting play into Iran’s hands, as global oil inventory levels drop, and Iran is surely receiving support from Russia and China (drones and MANPADS, for example)?
If the situation heats up again, oil will likely react even more significantly.
Of course, the USA/Gulf states can get interception gear from Ukraine and can replenish their munitions…
This geopolitics is quite tricky.
I have a feeling that we’re going to hear some good news from the situation room very soon. Trump just spoke words of hope to the world. Is this weekend the starting bang for peace? This time it might be different! Regards, the eternal optimist 
Could we handle this left/right squabbling in the politics thread. I’m sorry, but in all logic, an opinion on the sensibility of an Israeli or US attack has nothing to do with the right or left in Finland. I consider a US attack to be nonsensical and a problem caused by Trump himself, dating back to his first term. Now the goal is to spend billions just to end up in the same situation we were in before the war, go figure.
At the same time, Israel has decided to expand its Lebanon operation even deeper. They have good reasons for this. On the Israeli side, 4 civilians have died during the conflict. In Lebanon, 3370 people have died, some of whom are Hezbollah (Hessuja). Eleven children are killed or wounded every day.
Organizations on the ground are demanding an end to the Israeli strikes—they consider the slaughter shocking, but the messages fall on deaf ears. International pressure cannot be generated; France and Spain are not enough. Meanwhile, here a few thousand kilometers away, people are cheering for Israel’s success.
-Still right-wing, using my own brains-
Yes, yes, a great deal is just about ready; Iran is desperate to make a wonderful deal with Trumpet.
Live updates: Iran targets Kuwait and Bahrain as US conducts new strikes in latest test of peace talks | CNN https://share.google/xCFxBytn5Ix3dPt0F
Funny how none of that happened…
Zugzwang. The US administration is preserving political capital by keeping the ceasefire alive, because renewed escalation would force it to choose between military credibility and domestic cost. But Iran has no clear incentive to accept the full US package on US terms. If Washington needs the ceasefire to hold, Tehran can use that need as leverage.
How will things unfold from here? I believe that we’ll still be trying to make a deal during and after summer. We’ll see…
Trump is in a deadlock because he needs a deal that he could, even on some technicality, claim is better than the one made during the Obama era. However, Iran is demanding compensation for the bombings and destruction caused by Trump’s attacks. Without substantial reparations, Iran is unlikely to agree to discuss a deal even on the level of the previous agreement. Paying compensation would effectively be an admission of defeat, which is likely impossible for Trump.
There is increasing pressure on Trump to get any kind of deal done quickly, because the November midterm elections are approaching, inflation is on the rise and—worst of all—fuel prices are at all-time highs, if one doesn’t count the 1970s oil crisis, which few people alive today lived through.
On top of everything, strategic oil reserves are starting to hit all-time lows.
America’s emergency oil reserve is dropping toward levels not seen since the 1980s, as the United States rapidly drains its supplies to stabilize global energy markets rattled by the war with Iran.
According to the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. has 365.1 million barrels of oil sitting in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the week ending May 22, compared to 374.2 million a week prior and down by over 50 million barrels since the conflict began on February 28.
What does it matter, since releasing them hasn’t lowered the price? The issue becomes concrete at the point when levels drop so low that the remainder is saved for the government’s own use in case of a real emergency, and the station pumps are then allowed to run dry or the price rises to a level where demand drops to the level of production.
In any case, the price will not return to normal levels for months after the strait is opened for traffic. When the ships start moving, it will take weeks before the cargo arrives, and first, the national strategic reserves will be replenished before citizens notice any relief at the pumps. Pent-up demand is growing all the time and satisfying it won’t happen instantly.
Nothing aids the Democrats’ election campaign better than the continuation of the current stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Paradoxically, Trump was apparently already accepting one type of “deal” some time ago, until a Republican rebellion blocked that path.
In a recent Atlantic article, Robert Kagan, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote that “Trump’s endgame is surrender”, adding that the president “no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat”.
In the past week, anti-Iranian Republican senators such as Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz and Roger Wicker, chair of the Senate armed services committee, as well as Mike Pompeo, CIA director and secretary of state during Trump’s first administration, have all warned against an agreement which Trump last weekend said was “95% negotiated”.
Most likely, the best possible outcome for Trump would be to achieve a deal similar to the one Obama made with Iran, which Trump tore up while shouting that it was the “Worst deal ever.”
“Trump is by circumstance being forced to embark on or implement a transactional deal that would be essentially a variant of the JCPOA, and indeed, he may not even get similar terms to the JCPOA because the Iranians have been adept at playing their hand.”
Trump’s only problem is that any deal will be compared to the one Obama made, and he cannot make a worse one. The reality is that he realistically will not achieve a better one. So, as the midterms approach, Trump must choose how much he will surrender to Iran. Iran knows this. They are in no hurry; instead, they will calmly milk Trump for everything they can possibly get.
A somewhat sensationalist headline about the depletion of oil reserves. Granted, not all oil in the reserves is actually usable, but they aren’t scraping the bottom of the barrel just yet:
When the strait opens, futures will collapse, and that will be immediately reflected in the price of oil. There is no specific law stating that the first oil flowing through the strait must go into strategic reserves; usually, states are strategic buyers in these cases, meaning they enter into long-term agreements to refill reserves slowly to minimize the impact on crude oil prices. China has been an exception to this in recent years, having amassed huge oil reserves just before the Iran war, but one would think even they have the tactical sense to realize that now is not a good time to buy reserves back to full, and it’s better to wait for that sub-$70 barrel price.
If the global economy slows down significantly, there won’t even be any massive pent-up demand for oil in sight. Bigger challenges would arise at the point where the United States, China, and Europe all saw high economic growth.
The embargo is biting hard into Iran’s economy. Iran’s official inflation has hit a new record:
A new report by the Central Bank of Iran revealed a historic jump in the annual inflation rate, reaching 77.2 percent year-on-year in the period between April 21 and May 20, with a monthly increase of 8.5 percent compared with the previous month. Furthermore, point-to-point inflation for goods reached 113 percent.
This is Iran’s highest inflation rate since 1942, during World War II, which triggered the collapse of food supply chains and soaring prices.
“A year ago, a kilo of rice was about 1.8 million rials ($1.31), but today it has crossed the 5-million-rial ($3.63) threshold,” he tells Al Jazeera. “Likewise, a bottle of cooking oil was about 700,000 rials ($0.51) until the spring of last year, but its price has now reached more than 3 million rials ($2.18).
“My pension does not even cover a third of the household expenses.”
“Red meat has become a dream, chicken has become a mere guest on our table, and I have even started counting eggs one by one.”
“In my 40 years of work, I have never seen a recession this bad, not even during the worst periods of sanctions.”
Even if the Iranian state did not collapse into war, it remains an open question whether it will survive the peace intact. A long, hot summer without water is still ahead:
https://iranwire.com/en/features/152433-tehran-faces-harsh-summer-as-irans-water-crisis-deepens/
The embargo is hitting the Iranian economy hard. Iran’s official inflation reaches a new record:
Although the Iranian state did not collapse during the war, it remains an open question whether it will survive the peace intact. A long, hot summer without water is still ahead:
77.2% inflation would be a catastrophe in any Western democracy and would quickly lead to a change of power in elections, but Iran is an Islamist dictatorship. In Iran, power is held by the machinery of violence, and the country faces much larger problems than high inflation. Extremist movements, such as radical Islam, specifically thrive on poor economic conditions and injustice. High inflation is a greater problem for Western nations and democracies.
For comparison, Iran’s inflation was between 40-50% during the years 2018-2025. I wouldn’t predict major changes based on inflation rising to 77.2%. In Sudan, inflation was over 100% from 1991-1996, and the Islamist regime nevertheless remained in power for over 20 years. Under the Taliban’s rule, the level of the economy was so low that proper inflation statistics don’t even exist, but inflation was estimated to be over 240% between 1997-1999.
High inflation is a massive source of instability for any society and has caused annual protests in Iran ever since it spiraled out of control, so it cannot simply be dismissed. It is quite a matter of chance whether a regime collapses or not when facing significant instability; the fact that some regimes have been lucky enough to survive high inflation without falling doesn’t, of course, mean that high inflation could never cause a change of power.
Regarding popular uprisings, from our perspective, we had good luck in Ukraine, whereas in Iran, we’ve had worse luck. In Serbia, a massive uprising achieves nothing even though they live in a democracy, while the Libyan dictatorship collapsed over something completely trivial. It is impossible to predict in advance how an uncertain situation will eventually unfold when the masses take to the streets.
Regarding Iran, the essential point is that inflation is on a clearly accelerating trend at 21st-century ATH (all-time high) levels, while the country is simultaneously in a massive depression and the state can no longer provide price subsidies to large masses of people due to a lack of funds. If you add a water crisis even larger than last year’s on top of that, the regime could genuinely collapse under the multiplier effects of these crises. For example, there is currently not enough water in Tehran, even though it is only the beginning of June.
The spokesperson for Iran’s water industry recently stated that while the average fill rate for dams across the country is around 65%, the dams supplying Tehran are only 22% full.
Issa Bozorgzadeh emphasized that “35 million people in the country are facing water shortages,”
A change of power is never certain despite massive crises, but given these starting points, I would say it is nevertheless quite likely.
A low-value post, more of a vent. The weekend in Lebanon was quite eventful, and a lot happened considering a new ceasefire was hammered out again on Thursday.
There was a lot I wanted to share and I already had it on the screen, until I realized once again that I cannot write these things down. There will come a time when I can, but not yet. It is frustrating to read how clueless the media is, and on the other hand, why it apparently cannot be corrected, partly for political reasons. Corrected on behalf of those who know exactly how things are. Apologies for the outburst; regardless, here is what Yle is reporting on the events.
Just for clarification, do you have some sort of connection through which you receive non-public information, or is there another reason why you can’t disclose it?
This is mainly so that one could evaluate the reliability of your text, with all due respect.
Yep, as long as he is on-site, I can’t really refer to his photos, videos, or what he has reported, no matter how much I’d like to.
It’s not exactly a matter of chance. In the Arab world, regime changes in Libya and Syria required armed conflict, while in Egypt and Algeria, the leaders lost the support of the army. In Iran, the army and the rest of the security apparatus remain loyal to the regime and there are no credible armed resistance groups in the country, so no revolution is forthcoming.
Inflation is a normal state of affairs in many Middle Eastern countries; for example, Turkey has operated with an annual inflation rate of 30-70% for several years without it causing major public unrest.
