I somehow feel that one of us doesn’t understand market mechanisms. I wonder which one of us it is? If you want to seek support from an 85-year-old friend’s stories. Shorts are taken as early as possible and not from the bottom in my playbook.
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It would also be nice to know what the catalyst for the shorts would have been there.
I don’t see it on the chart, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t exist
I can continue the discussion to some extent - was the question for me? Daily TC down, volume above MA20 for 5 consecutive days. I only shorted from the 5935 breakdown. I closed at that MA200 breakdown, I think it was 5705. I made a 3-month profit relative to my full-year target.
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It wasn’t a question for you. I meant that 5510 level.
What would be a catalyst for shorts there?
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I think I’ll stop commenting here. The discussion is starting to get inappropriate.
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Novo Nordisk would be interesting. In my opinion, the fundamentals should also start to pay off, so it could be at buying prices. So I’m mainly wondering if the downtrend will continue from a TA (Technical Analysis) perspective. Or what kind of support/resistance levels do you see?
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On Dec 20, we came down with very large volume, usually the beginning of a longer downtrend. On the NYSE, the price also makes a big gap at that point.
On the other hand, the 520-550 level from July-August '23 looks like a demand zone which was conveniently undercut recently, and from there, it bounced back into the range.
Would it require some positive trigger for that gap to be filled anytime soon?
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I myself have been following this weekly chart on NOVO. Before it crosses that descending line, I don’t feel much FOMO. It will probably hover around the 200MA (red line) for the next month, if nothing dramatic happens.
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Hello masters! Quite a few European firms have now risen above their trendline. How do you think about/evaluate the gaps that might have occurred in this rapid rise? And does it matter what kind of channel the breakout came from? Is it just better to follow momentum and trend and ignore gaps, and if, for example, a daily TC occurs, then at that point start to suspect a possible gap fill? And are gaps above this trendline or support level more likely to fill than below? A couple of firms:
BASF from Germany
Wacker Chemie from Germany
Also, what do you think about Siili’s possible bull flag? Quite a gappy bar, but the rise was made with some volume nonetheless
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Europe certainly has quite a few big trend flips in my eyes right now, and there are a few good ones again. Of course, everything depends on the timeframe; the couple above are quite extended, so the market might give a pullback on those.
But the big picture always interests me more, when the timeframe is more months than days or minutes.
In my opinion, Siili also seems to have turned around, but of course, at least another solid earnings report is needed to get a bigger sentiment shift from the markets as well.
Of course, positions taken then will surely have to be taken at a slightly higher price. I’ve also been watching that same flag in Siili and the big picture turnaround myself.
It will probably become clear during this spring whether a solid bottom will be formed for the rest of the year; I myself cast my vote for the turnaround.
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Hi! How does Alibaba look technically? On daily and weekly, HH-HL-HH. Are we going to make a HL next, or is there momentum for higher prices in the short term?
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Could this be a possible bullflag if that upper range is broken?
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That’s some kind of flag, quite short, less than 3 weeks left. The market is also in a corrective move, many flags have failed recently. See e.g. the recently mentioned BABA or ACMR. 2/5
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I don’t really understand anything about TA, but I’m thinking about Evolution’s situation, that if it breaks the line in the next few days, will we start to be on the positive side?
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A somewhat more “reliable” situation and its interpretation regarding Evo is as follows.
You can see from the image on the left the price trending below the moving averages. When it attempts to rise, sellers return to the market and the trend continues. Pay attention to the attempts to rise during the decline, that the price does rise above the moving averages in bounces, but then starts testing the moving averages downwards, and the price doesn’t hold; the “testing” is just part of the same downtrend.
Hunting for a reversal is very difficult, and a trend usually doesn’t reverse easily, so one should somehow gain “certainty” that it’s rising.
In the image on the right, an important observation is that the price tests the moving averages again and moves above them (correct order: price on top, 10-day, 20-day moving averages) and a significant thing is when the price makes a correction after an “attempt to rise”…preferably a small and short-term one. The price tests the underlying moving averages and if they hold well and a higher low is formed, whereby the correction remains small and the rise continues. Perhaps a new trend has begun. Volume should be 20-50% above average on up days, so that the trend can be interpreted as strong and funds are also buying. In small companies, volumes can be due to retail investors alone…not a strong signal.
The difficulty in hunting for a turnaround company is that the purchase is made only at a higher price. So one must follow the price and wait for the price to have risen higher, so that it can be bought at the right moment at the right price…not cheaply or at the bottom. Not an easy task, but that’s how it goes.
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Can I ask about index-level technical analysis here? I’ll ask anyway.
I noticed that the S&P 500 on a daily level had its 50-day moving average cross through the 200-day moving average. In this situation, was this a bearish or bullish signal, or any signal at all? The last time this happened was when Russia invaded in 2022.
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It’s hard to be happy about that. It’s worth watching if the signal strengthens itself…a big selling wave, perhaps before the Easter holidays. Or does it fade and the market starts to climb up.
Within the market, there are always sectors that trend stronger than the market average, but in severe selling waves, everything tends to go down the drain.
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The situation differs in that we have been below 200 (actually below both) for some time now? I just wondered because no predictions related to the case have jumped out at me from anywhere else yet. So, is there even a case at all.
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One signal there, another here. Detecting reversals is always harder than recognizing a trend in the middle of a trend. Within weeks, we’ll probably be wiser as to whether it’s a decline or an ascent.
No technical indicator works for interpreting Trump’s mindset…the guy can get all sorts of ideas into his head and then we go in one direction or another.
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Here was a good article without a paywall about that cross. (Couldn’t read it anymore)
Quote from another source, which probably contains the most essential information that was there.
" In a note analyzing nearly 100 years of data, Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America Corp., wrote that in 52% of the time that this pattern occurred, the average losses stood at a mere 0.5%, according to the report.
Ciana adds that while death crosses have been “inconclusive overall,” there is one critical tell, whether the 200-day moving average at the close has fallen for the past 5 trading days. This indicates that there is more room for “stocks to drift lower in the immediate future,” as reported by MarketWatch. "
I myself became a bit more cautious, but Trump’s antics can stop as suddenly as they started, and this doesn’t necessarily mean a hundreds-of-days bear market.
But sell-in-may and go-away 
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