So you still mean to say that the decision to sell was based on the stock price? Or could it just be that it happened to drop the next day, and the investment thesis behind it hasn’t changed at all, which is still basically to hold the entire reserve. Or do you think they held a general meeting and agreed together that the price is going to drop soon, so let’s sell now while we can still get good money?
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BTC’s 1d RSI is around 25 and the 4h RSI is around 15. The market is quite oversold. We haven’t seen a capitulation (capitulaatio) yet, but historically, this might not be a bad place to consider the buy side. This is based strictly on observing the oversold/overbought ratio of the markets. However, one would preferably like to see a clear capitulation and the 1d and 4h RSI dip slightly lower before making a buying decision.
The price is getting hit from all sides right now, and in my opinion, the significance of MSTR’s minimal BTC sale is being blown out of proportion. I believe the most important factor is the progress of regulation in the US, and as far as I can see, nothing negative has happened in that regard.
That said, the price often reacts in a “sell the news” fashion, where the price rises before the actual news breaks. In my view, the price increase seen in the short term was related to speculation regarding the US BTC reserve and regulatory news.
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I find it hard to believe that this news has any major significance. Anyone following the news has known for a month already that this would likely happen.
I think it was during the Q1 earnings call where Saylor mentioned something to the effect of testing a small sale at some point. It’s mainly a symbolic gesture, as @Casteliero noted above. The amount is completely insignificant in the big picture.
Bitcoin has essentially been in a continuous decline for a week (with only Saturday being a small +0.6% green day). And the drop seems to continue day after day. At this rate, we’ll hit the bottom of the channel by the weekend.
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You may well be right, though in an oversold market, this is unlikely to be seen as positive news, at least.
I believe many considering a purchase are eyeing the $60k - $65k USD levels shown in the chart you linked for potential entries. Strong moves are almost always followed by a recoil (rebound), and I think it’s reasonably likely that we’ll see this phenomenon now as well. Though, one never knows for sure how the price will ultimately behave or how it will react after a potential recoil.
In any case, the potential $60k-$65k USD level is very interesting.
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A fairly rare situation in the market: Bitcoin’s price is clearly down the most among the major cryptocurrencies.
Zcash and Hyperliquid are once again showing exceptional strength against the rest of the market. Especially Zcash’s over 10% rise on a day like this is quite an achievement.
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The biggest reason for the decline in these is purely the expected return… the boom has already passed..
now people want to make money with semiconductors and everything else related to artificial intelligence (AI).
This was largely played for the big returns, and now it’s someone else’s turn. And there’s a strong belief that we’ll hit some really low levels..
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That’s just how it is. I’ve also completely lost interest in Bitcoin and other cryptos. I’ll throw out a prediction: when or if we ever see the next peaks in Bitcoin, many on this forum will already be in a nursing home or six feet under. I don’t believe any new highs will be made within the next four or five years. We can take gold as a historical example; over ten years, it rose from $35 to about $850 in 1980. But then a bear market began, and that $850 mark wasn’t broken until 2008, so people had to wait 28 years. I bet we’ll see something similar with Bitcoin.
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Often, the best buying opportunity has been when the vast majority of views in discussions are quite pessimistic. Historically, when the investment case for BTC has been seen as a complete thing of the past, the timing for buying has actually been quite good. Of course, history is no guarantee of the future.
Personally, I view situations like the current one with great interest and am cautiously starting to get into a buying mood. Of course, buying into falling prices requires a lot of patience and risk management, as there is never any guarantee of the future and I don’t have a crystal ball either.
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Countering that, of course, is the adoption of Bitcoin and blockchain technology, and the stage we are currently in. Bitcoin adoption is still very much in its infancy on the institutional/sovereign state side. If it grows and develops, it will start to show up quite significantly in the price. If, for example, the US clears the bottleneck here, others will surely follow suit.
And on the blockchain technology side, adoption is even further behind. It is still better and more cost-effective technology than current databases. And for example, the biggest banks are constantly working on various projects related to blockchain technology. The same goes for payment services, etc. In practice, the only products that have broken through in any way so far have been stablecoins and prediction markets. And even stablecoins haven’t been utilized in other products and services in any major way yet.
As both of these things progress, it should also be reflected in the price. Right now, interest is just focused on the AI sector because that product/service is clear even to the average retail investor (“tuulipuku”), and they are actually using it.
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The bottom is in, so time to buy 
well, maybe not just yet, but probably sometime this summer.
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Bitcoin’s price on weekly candles.
The bottom of the channel and the 200-week moving average slightly below it (as well as the bottom of the spring dip) are the bulls’ “the last stand”. If we fall through those, I expect a major drop, meaning a price starting with a 4.
In Bitcoin’s early years, the 200-week moving average served as the bear market bottom. In 2022, it no longer held in the aftermath of the FTX collapse; instead, Bitcoin fell at its worst about 30% below the 200-week moving average.
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Rip in pieces Bitcoin, of course there’s no reason to buy right when we are making bear market bottoms.
I read somewhere that Bitcoin only spends about 4% of its time at ATH (All-Time High) levels; most of the time it’s just shaking people out and then it pumps annoyingly fast in a short window so that nobody manages to get on board.
I bet it’s going to happen again: once the price crosses some magical psychological barrier (my guess is 95k), suddenly dozens of good narratives for owning Bitcoin will appear: AI causes deflation and the printer must go brrr so Bitcoin saves us, Bitcoin is the only asset AI won’t disrupt, AI agents will use bLocKcHain tEchnoloGy, we’ll tokenize trillion billion assets, etc. etc.
Since everyone is throwing out giga-brain predictions here, my own guess is that the bottom was likely already made in February when we dipped into the 59k range, and now we are undergoing time capitulation—meaning everyone is being scared out by hovering threateningly around 60-65k for a while. The strong buy volume after that morning slip to 61k felt in my gut for the first time like some kind of bid might have finally been found. Now just a couple of fakes up and down and the last of the towels will be thrown into the ring.
It is, of course, entirely possible that we’ll make a quick visit down to around ~$54k, where the 300-week moving average sits, which has held in every previous bear market. That’s just under 20% away from here. But I’m not so sure about that, as something like 3 billy in liquidations have snapped in the last couple of days—about the same as during the FTX bomb—so I wonder if there’s enough powder left for a bang like that.
The funny thing about BTC is the obsessive need to try and buy only the absolute lowest minute-tick of the bear market bottom candle, otherwise it’s an “epic fail.” This usually leads to a situation where even if you theoretically succeed in timing the bottom, you end up owning much less Bitcoin than if you had just patiently DCA’d (Dollar Cost Averaged) throughout the bottom ~20% of the price.
Does it really matter to someone who bought in 2020 whether they managed to snipe BTC at $3,800 or “failed” and the buy hit $4,500? I started DCAing again when we went under 69k, because I can’t see into the future and it’s enough for me if I buy “around” the bottom. As far as I know, they don’t hold victory parades for anyone who nails the perfect bottom wick.
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Yep, in practice, nobody actually catches the bottom. If you’ve lived through previous bear markets, you know that at every bottom, the majority of investors were expecting the price to drop even lower.
For example, in 2019, the general view was that the price would fall to the $1k–$1.5k range. In 2022, at around $16k–$17k, people were also waiting for one more leg down. It doesn’t matter how low the price drops, investors will always expect it to go lower.
The exact same phenomenon works the other way too: the higher the Bitcoin price rises, the more ridiculous the price predictions start to become.
In my opinion, a good rule of thumb for the average investor is that when the price is below the 200-day moving average, there are some really cheap coins on offer. From there, you just buy according to your own risk appetite—for example, by slightly increasing your DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) amounts or buying once a month or once a week.
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I just had to scoop up some more XRP now that it’s under a euro…
Only a cautious €500 addition in case the slide continues…
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XRP is apparently sitting at the exact same 200-week moving average on the weekly candles as Bitcoin. If the week closes around this $1.10 level, the chart is practically screaming for a return to the $0.50-$0.60 range. At that point, XRP would be offered at quite a bargain.
A lot of altcoins are currently dropping below the bottoms of this bear market, as I previously mentioned with a few examples. There is still almost half a week left, of course, so let’s see what happens.
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Is there any reason why the value of cryptocurrencies couldn’t eventually go to zero or down to just a few euros?
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The clearly largest and most beautiful asset in my crypto portfolio has been in the red (mollitellut) today as well 
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My main crypto is now only slightly in the green, even though I’ve been holding patiently
It seems it briefly dipped below $60,000 today 
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It’s definitely dropped quite a bit within a reasonable amount of time 
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2062882175372902730
Today:
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