Fears and hype over cryptocurrency price

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Bitcoin’s price performance looks really good right now. The momentum is even stronger than last week, when the price rose for the first time all spring for several days above the important 75K resistance level. However, the week ended with a knockout by the bears, and the weekly candle was not closed at good levels.

This week, Bitcoin has taken off again and has risen every day since Monday. The price broke the 79K level for the first time today since early February.

The daily chart clearly shows that some resistance can be expected from these 78-79K levels, as the price remained choppy here for several days around the turn of January-February.

What’s interesting, however, is that Bitcoin is less than a 10 percent rise away from its 200-day moving average, which is shown in purple on the graph. The price did not rise above the 200-day moving average once in the previous bear markets. When that important trend line was broken, the bull market began.

Bullish investors are naturally ecstatic on social media right now. Let’s calmly wait for confirmations for this rise and first get that weekly candle close…

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Bitcoin’s price development doesn’t look good right now. The price has fallen every day this week, and the 4-week uptrend has ended.

Bullish investors have been in a very rowdy mood on X in recent weeks. There were grounds for positivity - especially since last week when the price finally managed to break out of the channel shown in the image.

It seems that the moon rocket ran out of gas around the halfway point. The price rally stalled at the next resistance (the pink area in the image) and didn’t have the strength to test the 200-day moving average.

If this trend continues, the channel’s ceiling will be tested over the weekend.

At this point, it’s good to remember one thing. May and June have been outright BRUTAL months in previous bear markets. In 2018, the price fell from about 10k → 6k, and in 2022 from about 40k → 18k.

For example, Ethereum hit the bottom of the entire bear market in June 2022 and never dropped below that dip again.

This decline was followed by several months of sideways movement in both 2018 and 2022, after which Bitcoin reached its final bear market bottom in November-December.

Soon we’ll see if history repeats itself or if the traditional 4-year cycles have been broken.

I was watching Nordnet’s Trader’s Club yesterday, where Mr. Lepikkö said that US earnings forecasts are around 20% for this year. So, at least there is some tailwind from the stock market, and the market crash predicted by analysts (every week for the last 20 years) doesn’t seem to be coming.

So, we’re not looking at a repeat of 2022, when all risk assets collapsed hand-in-hand. From this perspective, 2018 would be a better point of comparison. Back then, the S&P 500 was trending up for most of the year until the beginning of October. At the end of the year, there was a major crash in the stock market, which may have also fueled Bitcoin’s final dip.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Bitcoin price on the weekly candles.

If there are no surprises today, this week can be called a “defensive victory.” The decline that continued throughout the early part of the week halted on Thursday, and the weekly candle looks set to close in the 77–79k range, similar to last week.

“Not great, not terrible.”

If we look at the daily chart, the 200-day moving average (the de facto bear market threshold) is already slightly below $84,000. This would represent an increase of just over 7 percent from current levels.

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

The long position already went over eighty.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Bitcoin’s rally continues, and the price is set to break $81,000 at any moment.

The 200-day moving average, which has historically acted as the boundary for the bear market, is only a couple of percentage points away. Will we see it tested as early as today?

A truly interesting week ahead!

In the 2002 bear market, Bitcoin’s price touched the 200-day moving average on one day (March 28), but did not trade above it intraday. The price returned above it permanently on January 23, 2023. Shortly after, a Golden Cross occurred, which was the final confirmation of the end of the bear market.

In the 2018 bear market, the price came close to the 200-day moving average a few times but did not even touch it. That trendline was broken on April 2, 2019, followed shortly by another Golden Cross.

[Casteliero]

@Casteliero

At least in my view, there is a high probability that in the first half of May, we will cross that 200MA somewhere around 83k, and then even the bears should finally accept that we are in very bullish territory. If any good news comes out, it could of course break through even sooner.

The 200MA is approaching right on schedule. There isn’t much resistance left. It’s possible it will hit that level today once the US markets wake up between four and five.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

@Casteliero

The 200MA is approaching right on schedule. There shouldn’t be much struggle left. It might even hit the level today once the US markets wake up between four and five.

We are indeed very close now; the price came within about 500 dollars of the 200-day moving average today. We are currently seeing the first testing of a truly significant level during this bear market.

The bears got their first round win today, but a very interesting end of the week is in store. The 200-day moving average is falling at such a fast pace that even sideways movement would be enough to push Bitcoin above said trendline within a week or two.

In the Middle East, the situation also seems to be improving, and the price of oil dived below 100 dollars again today. At the same time, US stock indices are hitting new ATH (All-Time High) levels. So, there is also a market tailwind available for Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin gets knocked out by the 200-day moving average under these conditions and dives back into prices starting with a 7, it would be a major victory for the bears and a very harsh signal. We will see what happens soon.

At least there is a lot of buzz on social media for the first time in a long while!

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Not so fast… put the champagne back on ice! Bitcoin got a textbook rejection from the critical 200-day moving average. So, the bears are still in control

At the same time, the S&P 500 is breaking records, so the stock market should be providing some tailwinds for Bitcoin.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 officially rises above 7,400 for the first time in history, now up +17.2% since March 30th.

That’s now +$10 TRILLION in market cap in 29 trading days.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2052788066142605523

Let’s see where this week’s candle actually closes.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Bitcoin’s price went back to test the 200-day moving average again last night. This attempt also ended in a rejection, similar to Wednesday. However, we are now very close, and we will likely see a third test soon.

The 200-day moving average is still falling rapidly—roughly $1,000 per week. It is currently at the level of about $82,650. A week ago, the 200-day average was around $83,800.

[paspartuu]

Interesting setup for CRO at the moment.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

The Bitcoin price has now approached the 200-day moving average three times—essentially the boundary between a bull and bear market—but has not broken through it so far.

With the current trend, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages will cross within ~a month. This Golden Cross would also be a very “bullish” signal.

In the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, the Golden Cross occurred at the point when the Bitcoin price had permanently broken above the 200-day moving average and the bear market was already over.

However, 2014 provides an exception; a major rally was also seen back then in May, which resulted in a “fake” Golden Cross signal in the middle of a bear market. Therefore, even this indicator does not mean with absolute certainty that the bear market is over.