Bitcoin news today: BTC tanks to $69,101 on Bitstamp
On Bitstamp, bitcoin has already been available for under $70,000 today.
Where are we on the Wall Street Cheat Sheet?
In my opinion, Bitcoinâs 2023â2026 cycle fits this classic chart only if the Euphoria phase was the period following Trumpâs election victory (NovâDec 2024).
Then came the spring 2025 drop, which bottomed out in April. From there, the rise seen in the summer began, and the October ATH level was the peak of the Complacency phase. Bitcoinâs price went above the Euphoria level because truly strong euphoria simply wasnât seen.
This would mean that we are currently somewhere around the Denial phase. Or perhaps we are experiencing some really strange cycle that just doesnât fit any traditional charts. Weâll see soon enough.
More of my thoughts in the market review published today: Markkinakatsaus: Kryptojen kurssit jatkavat laskutrendissÀ - Bitcoinkeskus.com
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All the best (*) Bitcoin analysts have now turned bearish.
â* if you believe in the quality of this curation: We curate the top 1% of crypto analysts from tens of thousands. Not based on followers or hypeâbut on data-driven truth-seeking, accuracy, and depth of analysis. Every prediction is tracked. Every outcome measured. No deleted tweets. No selective memory. Just cold, hard track records that separate signal from noise.
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Is that the full history, or can you see it over a longer period to know if this has any predictive value?
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I donât see any signs of slowing down yet, just massive red volume bars. I donât own any, but Iâm interested in buying bitcoin if the crash stops and we start moving sideways.
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I came across that image on my X feed; I donât know more about the history.
We keep drifting lower all the time. Sold again today around the 70k mark, now about 23% sold, so my initial investment is out. Let it go to zero if it must, since Iâm playing with house money now.
Just under a 50% drop from here and I could start buying a bit at that 35k level. I have to think about that too, as Iâve started to doubt whether weâll even see new highs during the next 4-year cycle.
Right now, this âdigital goldâ has taken a serious beating from real gold. If you think of Bitcoin as some kind of tech hype stock, it took the Nasdaq 15 years to return to its 2000 highs; Iâm afraid the same could happen to Bitcoin. In future cycles, weâll see some upside, but with lower highs every time, as has happened to most altcoins.
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Well, BTC died again according to the forum. RIP 
see you at zero then.
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The biggest talking point for the coming days and weeks will likely be where the bear market bottom is. Surely the âbear vs. bullâ debate is over with this weekâs price action. Especially since the price has already dropped below the 2021 highs.
My base case is around the 200-week moving average, which has historically been the place to start sniffing out bottoms. In the ballpark, this would mean a price of around 55k.
I also think it would be logical that, given the lack of euphoria and that final bull run, the decline would inevitably be smaller than in previous cycles. Or then something bigger is broken in the market.
If we dropped like in the 2022 cycle, weâd go down to around 30k. I personally consider the 40-45k dollar range a more realistic âworst-caseâ scenario.
The price is sliding down so fast right now that at this rate, weâll hit the bottom as early as February. This is unlikely to happen. Itâs more probable that weâll see a weeks-long or even a couple-month-long bounce/consolidation phase toward the 50-day moving average. And then another slide.
Something is definitely strange about this market. Or has been since the beginning of October. That drop just doesnât feel organic to me. But weâll see. If something interesting is happening behind the scenes, weâll probably hear about it months from now.
Edit: I made a poll about this on Bitcoinkeskusâs X account if anyone wants to check out other peopleâs guesses https://x.com/bitcoinkeskus/status/2019466766171226534
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Bitcoinâs selloff pushes price below $70,000. What to know
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, wrote in a research note Wednesday that bitcoin could ultimately bottom out around $38,000 â down about 70%.
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Someone really pulled the plug on the crypto market. Prices are gurgling down the drain like bathwater.
The idea of buying doesnât feel painful enough yet because thereâs still a glimmer of hope in the back of my mind; only when buying seems like the stupidest possible idea is there enough upside. This is just my own experience.
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Bitcoinâs decline stopped last night at $60,000. The 58k-62k range acted as support several times during the spring 2024 rally.
In addition to this, the 200-week moving average is rising to the same area. The 200-week moving average has historically been a good target for a bear market bottom.
Below are the BTC weekly candles:
Here is the 200-week moving average over a longer period. As can be seen, 2012, 2015, 2018, and the 2020 COVID dip all found support from this trendline. The 2022 bear market was the first time the bottom was found slightly lower.
One might now argue that the bottom must be much lower, since we are already so close to it.
If we are currently in a long-term bear market, they do not function by the price simply plunging week after week towards the bottom. For example, in the 2022 bear market, there was an uptrend lasting about three months starting from late January.
In the summer, the price moved sideways for over four months before the bottom was found in November after FTX.
It would therefore not be a surprise if we next saw a move similar to November-December-January, but in the opposite direction for a change.
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Liquidity guru Michael Howellâs GLI (Global Liquidity Index) combines dozens of different economies with specific weightings + entities other than just central banks.
Howellâs GLI has turned downwards in recent months. And the GLI peak coincided, surprise surprise, almost to the day with the Bitcoin peak. This is also very logical, as according to Howell, Bitcoin reacts to changes in GLI first.
If this global liquidity trend continues its decline, it means that stocks will follow with about a 6-9 month lag. In other words, a broader global liquidity downtrend has perhaps begun, to which Bitcoin reacts fastest.
At the same time, for instance, Raoul Pal, who has largely âhitched his wagonâ to the rise in the PMI, would be totally wrong with his theory.
Howellâs method is, of course, just one way to assess liquidity. Naturally, there is no absolutely correct way.
It is interesting that, according to Howell, the rise in precious metals also explains this decline very well. This is because all the money invested in, for example, gold and silver, sucks liquidity out of the financial sector into the real economy.
Here is the interview from which the screenshot was taken: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deD0BXhQ-hc
You can jump straight to the 8:00 mark if you wish.
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Further reflection: âBut Mr. Howell, that liquidity peak hitting around the turn of 2021 doesnât explain the previous cycle at all. The crypto peak hit in November, not in the spring, where it should have hit with a small lag from the start of 2021.
Or did it?
Anyone who lived through the 2021 markets knows that the crypto sentiment peak hit in the spring of 2021. Specifically, at the beginning of May. In fact, many altcoinsâ ATHs are from 2021, specifically from the spring.
I remember well how this was discussed a lot in 2022. Many analysts, even smarter ones than me, were of the opinion that the real market peak was in May 2021.
After that, there are many theories about who manipulated what and why, but only part of the market could be pushed back up, and BTC broke its ATH in November by only a very slim margin. The DeFi boom had largely faded, NFTs didnât interest anyone anymore, only certain memes could still be pushed up, etc.
What about 2022 then? Crypto should have bottomed BEFORE stocks, but the bottom wasnât seen until ~2 months later.
What actually happened? The bottom of the crypto market sentiment hit at the turn of June-July. Thatâs when, for example, the Ethereum price hit its 2022 bear market lows. Many observers at the time were of the opinion in late summer 2022 that the bottom of the decline had been seen.
The stock market bottomed more than 3 months later at the end of October, as it was supposed to according to liquidity theory.
Then a completely internal crypto market event occurred: the FTX collapse. This could have been just a small dip, but due to many different factors, the market was taken to new lows. But only for some cryptos.
One must remember that crypto is still such a small and peculiar market that events contrary to the large macro trend are seen within it, tossing the price in different directions.
If you look at it this way, Howellâs liquidity cycle would also explain the events of 2021-2022. That is, the crypto market âin principleâ started its decline 6 months before the stock markets and bottomed, depending on the method of calculation, 3-4 months earlier.
And now then, at the end of 2025, we also saw an internal crypto market âblack swanâ on Oct 10th, which started the downward trend 2-3 months ahead of schedule.
Well, now someone might say that this is purely semantics. In the end, it doesnât matter what triggered the reversal of the macro trend and whether it started 3 months before or after. Yes, I completely agree. In the end, it doesnât matter what the decisive factor was.
From an investorâs point of view, the most important thing is to understand whether we are now in a down or up trend in the big picture.
This reflection interests me because I want to try to understand why the market behaves the way it does. And which event is caused by the so-called macro trend and which is an internal crypto market event.
Example: if new crypto regulation were passed in the US tomorrow, crypto could get a months-long rally against the macro trend. But still, in the big picture, we would still be in a bear market that doesnât end until somewhere at the end of 2026.
Interesting months are ahead in any case. Because right now there are many completely opposite theories in the air about where crypto should move.
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One very interesting perspective on your reflections, in my opinion, can be found in todayâs Benzinga article (yahoo.com).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoins-infinite-paper-supply-not-203126798.html
Paraphrasing the text in my own words and translation (without AI, only with the help of a dictionary).
In the article, according to technical analysis veteran Bob Kendall, the biggest problem with BTCâs price discovery is its current theoretical infinite supply.
Thus, Bitcoinâs price is no longer determined by scarcity in the form of the limited 21M supply.
When financial layers and instruments (e.g., futures, options, ETFs, lending products, etc.) were added on top of âphysicalâ (in my opinion, still a very strange, even amusing expression) Bitcoins, its inherent scarcity as part of price discovery vanished.
Now that supply can be created synthetically, BTC is starting to resemble the trading of gold or oil in derivative-heavy or derivative-dominated markets.
Now, multiple (ownership) claims can be made against a single Bitcoin.
Once influencers and BTC advocates achieved the legitimacy they wanted for BTC as an investment product, Wall Streetâs approval, and massive media attention, they simultaneously and voluntarily integrated BTC into the traditional financial system.
According to Kendall, the danger that this would destroy Bitcoinâs scarcity (which, as I understand it, is an essential part of the narrative and the reasoning for BTCâs excellence as a store of value and even the enabler of its continuous price appreciation) was foreseen years ago.
According to Kendall, government involvement in Bitcoinâmeaning its oversight (and its simultaneous inclusion in the regulated system)âonly accelerated this process.
All the increased control, taxation, and surveillance also simultaneously moved Bitcoin further away from its original foundations or essential founding principles.
All potential errors in thought or translation are, of course, my own responsibility.
Regards,
Balle
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This is a pretty typical bear market story, which pop up like mushrooms after rain whenever the price crashes. A classic theme is âBitcoin canât be a SoV (Store of Value) because its price fluctuates too much,â and recently there has been a strong theme about how âpaper Bitcoin is destroying the marketâ and âBitcoin doesnât work anymore now that Wall Street is involved.â
Over the weekend on X, an FT article (behind a paywall so I wonât bother linking) titled âBitcoin is still about $69,000 too highâ received a lot of attention. Many were particularly amused that the FT updated the headline to $70,000 when the price rose.
In Finland, some local investment veteran is brought into the headlines to bemoan how the value of Bitcoin cannot be determined. Example: Bitcoin on syöksykierteessĂ€ â Vesa Puttonen ei jaksanut enÀÀ, myi omansa pois: "En pysty ymmĂ€rtĂ€mÀÀn"
When prices skyrocket, stories are then conversely made about how expert X and analyst Y predict a million-dollar price.
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Bitcoinâs price has settled in the $69kâ$70k range after the chaos of a week ago. This is a very logical level, as itâs where the 2021 ATH is located on a longer timeframe. In more recent history, the $70kâ$73k area acted as strong resistance for the price throughout 2024.
A week ago, many expected the drop to stop in this area, but the selling pressure was so intense that the price eventually fell $10k lower on a daily basis on Thursday. However, the weekly candle closed at $70.3k.
The price target is currently the 200-week moving average, which is shown in purple on the chart below. It is at approximately the $58k level, meaning the price already almost touched this trendline a week ago.
On the daily level, last weekâs bottoms produced that famous candle indicating buying pressure on Friday. But that was as far as it went. There was no continuation for the rise over the weekend, and this weekly candle has already turned red.
The outlook is therefore currently very bearish. Bitcoin has a lot of work to do before we can even dream of a new rally beginning.
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