Fears and hype over cryptocurrency price

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Q: “How can the 4-year cycle theory work, since the euphoria phase was never reached?”
A: “It was already reached a year ago”

How would the classic Wall Street Cheat Sheet work if the four-year cycle theory still held true?

In my opinion, simply, the “Euphoria” phase was seen a year ago after Trump’s election victory. It is absolutely undeniable that at that time, the only real retail rally and euphoria in the markets for this cycle was observed. The question is mainly whether it was the peak of the entire cycle or not.

If “Euphoria” had been a year ago, the development in 2025 would actually fit that picture really well. The big crash that happened in the spring, and then the rise to the “Complacency” phase during the summer and autumn.

Of course, the “Complacency” peak would now actually be higher than the “Euphoria” peak, but the market never works exactly 1:1 with such theories.

Now, in my opinion, we would be in the “Anxiety” phase, and “Anger” would be reached in the summer of 2026.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Yesterday, Kauppalehti had a comprehensive article about Bitcoin’s price crash and its reasons. I also got to comment on crypto in Kauppalehti for the first time

The other interviewee in the article is Martin Wichmann, CEO of Kvarn X, who is definitely one of Finland’s best experts in the crypto sector.

Even though I’m biased, it’s a well-written article. Only readable for subscribers, but I’m sure many here have credentials: Bitcoin romahti – Mutta uusi jättinousu voi olla jo alkanut | Kauppalehti

Somewhat related, The Kobeissi Letter’s X-post:

We now have:

1. Trump saying he will keep stocks at record highs
2. $600B/year in Magnificent 7 CapEx
3. Fed cutting interest rates into 3%+ inflation
4. Global AI infrastructure spending at $1T/year
5. Fed ending Quantitative Tightening in 2 days
6. US deficit spending at >6% of US GDP
7. Nvidia larger than all but 5 national stock markets
8. Record corporate buybacks of $1.2T coming in 2026
9. Trump saying he will “completely cut” income taxes
10. Trump promising $2,000 stimulus checks in 2026

How can you fight this momentum?

So, that’s a list of things supporting the momentum of the US stock market alone. Also considering that next year there are midterm elections, so the Trump administration will do everything to make the retail crowd wealthier as well.

Does this look like an environment where a bear market is starting? It doesn’t. Cf. the situation four years ago, where Jerome Powell had just announced interest rate hikes, and all central banks were preparing for a tightening cycle in the fight against inflation.

If the US stock market continues its rise, led by the technology sector, crypto will follow. It’s really hard for me to see a situation where crypto plunges into a bear market just because some arbitrary day has been reached on the calendar.

From a technical analysis perspective, however, interesting days lie ahead. Bitcoin’s price hit its first major resistance yesterday after the rally that started a week ago. It was no shock that the price didn’t break through the 91K-92K level easily.

The bear case is still valid from a TA perspective for some time, even if Bitcoin continues its journey towards 100K next week. There are still many obstacles ahead, but we are definitely in the first test now.

In my opinion, the big picture situation remains unchanged: the bear vs. bull case is about historical and TA signals vs. macro signals. In the KL article, I gave about 60-70% probability for the rally to continue. Price must be respected, and historical and TA signals must be given weight.

I have been following economics and “talking heads” on YouTube since roughly 2010. I don’t remember ever seeing macro analysts so divided as they have been in the last two years. One side has been constantly shouting about a recession, while the other side sees a technology-driven bull run continuing.

Now this setup has also landed in crypto. Especially the year 2025 has been one where everyone has been more or less wrong.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s price received the worst possible signal: the rally stalled at the first major resistance, and on top of that, Bitcoin crashed by ~4000 dollars last night as the Asian market opened. A really sharp drop in about an hour.

This doesn’t look good.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Bitcoin has made a so-called return to the scene. Bears are amazed, as instead of 80K, 90K is on the board! That was indeed a surprising and positive turn.

![btc|473x500](upload://mK46VGLP25

[All_in_aina]

@Antti_Hyppanen

Money is being shoveled in immediately at a huge volume!

Isn’t the problem with this that it’s not really on a sustainable basis. Well, in a week we’ll see where we’re at again, but apparently without this ETF thing, it would have continued downwards. Now it’s fun for a while until the emptying begins, maybe

[Antti_Hyppanen]

@All_in_aina

Isn’t the problem with this that it’s not really on a sustainable footing. Well, in a week we’ll see where we stand, but apparently without this ETF thing, it would have continued downwards. Now it’s fun for a while again until the sell-off begins, maybe.

If a bear market has truly begun, Vanguard investors won’t save that decline.

Today there has been other positive news in the markets, which has certainly had its own impact. We never know for sure what caused Bitcoin’s rise on a given day. Perhaps in reality, Strategy or some Dubai sheikh was buying?

Investors always want to find some explanation for large price changes. So naturally, the news that could most likely be behind the movement on that particular day is pointed to.