Stable safe haven Bitcoin broke the 80,000 mark, downwards. 
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@Jukka_Lepikko and Bitkoâs adventures
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ETH is actually already at October 2023 levels, and the 2022 bear market lows are approaching.
SOL also seems to have dropped from the range where it traded for over a year.
XRP seems to be the strongest among the majors, but it too is fighting at the 2 USD level, and a descending triangle can be drawn on the chart.
Cycle over, disperse?
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Nice rally again in cryptos, e.g., BTC over $100k and ETH over $2k
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Updated chart: global M2 money supply vs. Bitcoin. This is how simple it seems to be, at least in this cycle. Yes, M2 is not the best metric for global liquidity, but it works like a charm nonetheless.
Source: https://x.com/BittelJulien/status/1920789668964049019
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Now I can wake up to glow again. 
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Bitcoin is back at $105,000.
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Based on the sentiment, one wouldnât believe weâre hovering a few percent away from ATH. I donât know if Disbelief has even turned into passive interest yet.
Crypto threads on this forum are almost dead.
With a few exceptions, altcoins are struggling in a bear market, even though some awakening has already been seen.
Financial News usually knows how to make Retail put on their FOMO buying pants in the final stretch of the cycle, but it has been quite dead silent so far.
So this rally hasnât been spoiled by Euphoria yet, at least. It seems the Melania coin PTSD hangover is still lingering in the air, stinking up the atmosphere.
Mainly for these reasons, I believe that new Surprise peaks can be seen relatively soon. Of course, Iâm just cheering Bitcoin from the sidelines. My crypto portfolio is 100% in alts, as BTCâs boomer volatility is not nearly enough for my own risk tolerance.
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Is there any global or even US-tracking sentiment meter for this?
The fact that a Finnish discussion forum is quiet doesnât necessarily tell the whole truth.
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Would Twitter work? Itâs dead silent regarding BTC 
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Itâs green in these markets.
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Finnish discussion forums and, for example, FB groups reflect the sentiment of the entire market very well. All activity goes hand in hand. I see it, for example, from Bitcoinkeskus visitors, YouTube channel views, X post likes, TikTok comments, etc., and these can be compared to Google searches or the viewership of popular YouTubers.
The quietness is due to the fact that (estimated) 90%+ of investors practically donât own Bitcoin at all, and of those who entered the market in 2021-2025, probably 99%+ donât own Bitcoin. In other words, activity will grow exponentially when the price of XRP starts to rise.
In the 2023-2025 bull market, there have practically been two active periods of about 4-5 weeks: in spring 2024 when Bitcoin rose to new ATH figures, and after Trumpâs election victory. The rest of the time has been more or less quiet.
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If you want to follow something, for example, Santiment collects all kinds of data, including sentiment, which they share on X and YouTube. https://x.com/santimentfeed
Iâve been involved in crypto since 2017, so weâre now in the third cycle. I have found the most reliable Sentiment Indicator to be a tool as scientific as My Own Feeling, which you should strongly counter in buy/sell decisions.
This can be quantified, for example, by counting how many times a day you feel like admiring the development of your crypto portfolio. Or how much time is spent daily researching â100x potentialâ shitcoins.
Also, the Father-in-Law Indicator and the Office Lunch Table Indicator are effective in indicating terminal-stage bubble formation.
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What has also been exceptional for this rally is the retail crowd going straight past crypto exchanges to the Solana meme casino for those Melania coins. This started to be seen a bit in the 2021 rally, but now it has reached entirely new proportions.
Previously, accounts were opened on Binance and other large exchanges, from which top 100 - top 200 list coins that were available were bought. Now, people directly download the Phantom app, deposit there with a credit card, and buy some random meme that isnât listed anywhere.
As late as 2021, the situation was also that the market primarily bought native tokens of smart contract platforms (ETH, SOL, AVAX, MATIC, BNB) and Ethereum platform DeFi tokens (AAVE, etc.). But after 2021, Ethereum L2 layers and especially Solana became more common, which led to money flowing into Solana platform DeFi tokens and Base platform memes and who knows what else.
In 2021, there was much more discussion about top 50 coins and their news and fundamentals, etc. Now, even during the peak hype, very few so-called âsubstance/fundamental postsâ are seen. Retail posts focus on large cryptocurrencies mainly on XRP, and then the hottest memes are hyped.
The crypto market has indeed changed drastically in four years. It will be interesting to see how the cycle ends and if we will see the long-awaited broader altcoin rally again as in previous years. After Trumpâs election victory, one was achieved, but only for about 4-5 weeks.
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Bitcoinâs price closed yesterday at an all-time high ($107,800). From a technical analysis perspective, the rocket is about to launch right now! A new ATH could be reached at any moment.
The 200-day & 50-day moving averages are also currently forming a Golden Cross. The previous Golden Cross was seen on October 26-27, 2024, when Bitcoinâs price was ~68K, and a month later, the 100K price was being approached.
Edit: Over a billion dollars worth of shorts are also getting wiped out as the price jumps to a new ATH figure: https://x.com/coinbureau/status/1925083657103868162
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New ATH after a long time
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Just came across this on X related to the topic: âBitcoin is near prior All Time Highs and nobody caresâ
Itâs quiet. I donât know exactly how that was calculated, but having been in the market for ~8 years, Iâd say that red line is pretty much in the ballpark. At no point during this cycle have we been anywhere near the general market activity of, for example, late 2017 or spring 2021.
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Bitcoinâs dominance, or market share, started a sharp decline a couple of weeks ago, and altcoin investorsâ hopes were awakened. At the same time, the dominance broke a strong trend that had been tested very precisely for half a year.
The joy lasted for a week this time - Bitcoin has once again taken command of the market and is making a return above the trend line. A broader âAltcoin rallyâ is indeed very difficult in this cycle. One was seen for three weeks in November, but since then, Bitcoinâs dominance has been reaching new highs for months.
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If Ethereum doesnât start moving from such good setups, then it never will (during this cycle). Note: the chart is ETH vs. BTC.
@BobLoukas
$ETH is an obvious play right now and all the narratives will continue to build around it as positive sentiment grows. Also, slightly later Cycle stage vibes.
Edit:
and ETH vs. USD
@CryptoDonAlt
$ETH HTF Range reclaim
Only resistance left is $3800 if that breaks Iâll expect new ATHs
Invalidation for bulls is a close sub $2200 Pretty good chart IMO
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