Kreate - Finnish Infrastructure Builder

SijoituskÀsti has made a 2-minute and 15-second video about Kreate. :slight_smile:

Those without an X account can watch it here.
https://twitter-thread.com/t/1955698833083555935

X users can watch it here if they wish.
https://x.com/STNXfi/status/1955698833083555935
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@Karo_Hamalainen interviewed Kreate’s CEO Timo Vikström. :slight_smile:

A strong investment boom has subtly emerged in infrastructure construction. The infrastructure boom is driven by two strong spearheads: improving defense infrastructure and data centers. The money taps have been opened with a large wrench.

This is reflected, among other things, in the expanded order book of Kreate, which builds bridges, railways, and foundations. Kreate has hired staff to prepare for growing demand.

The company often cannot disclose defense administration projects: new figures simply appear in the order book, which then convert into revenue and profit. Many transport infrastructure projects also contribute to defense spending, even if they are not specifically marked as defense projects. Infrastructure must function in potential exceptional circumstances.

Amidst the abundance of projects in the infrastructure boom, Kreate has been selective, according to CEO Timo Vikström. The most fiercely competed bulk jobs are gladly left to others.

“We gladly use our resources for the projects we want to do,” he says.

When one willingly skips the least suitable projects and can focus on the most interesting ones, profitability could be expected to improve. Within what timeframe could Kreate achieve its target of over five percent EBITA profitability?

“That is the goal for the end of our strategy period. We have a couple of years left in our strategy period,” Vikström replies.

In cooperation with: Kreate

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This was a good interview. Vikström has a very consistent way of presenting himself and bringing up company-related matters. This inspires confidence.

The interview increased belief that Kreate is on the right track and profitability will improve in the coming quarters. I believe this will also be reflected in the share price within this year, which has been on an upward trend in recent months. Let’s throw in a guess at the end here that the price will rise to the 10.x € level during H2/2025 :

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Kreate’s share in the number of data centers currently under construction surprised me.
Quite a commendable share, as Kreate is involved in the construction of the infrastructure for 5 out of 50 data centers.

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I don’t understand why Kreate is priced at higher multiples than GRKInfra.

According to Inderes’ forecasts:

2025E
#GRKInfra
EV/EBIT 7.6x

kreate
EV/EBIT 11.7x

Both operate, for example, in railway and bridge construction.

Is Kreate’s result going to improve significantly next year, and is that already priced in?

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Perhaps what I see here is that GRK itself forecasts quite moderate views regarding the future, and consequently many also think that the limits of growth are being reached. With Kreate, on the other hand, Vikrstöm’s style is to speak very positively about the prospects, which certainly instills confidence in investors.

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As I understand it, GRK’s role in the northern Swedish steel mill has been central for growth. I don’t know about the less than a year horizon, but in the long run, GRK should replace Stegra with something and then do even bigger things to grow. Kreate, on the other hand, doesn’t need to run faster to stay in place.

So I’m not taking a stance on whether either is expensive or cheap, but from a layman’s perspective, if one looks at Kreate through GRK’s fast-paced glasses, a big, retrospectively good project should indeed be reflected in earnings, but its repeated replication requires good work behind the numbers.

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Yes, this is clearly visible in GRK’s long-term financial goals. Little growth is expected. That Swedish project really makes it difficult to understand the company’s normal profit level. The project seemed to go very well.

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In my eyes, the difference between GRK and Kreate is that one is a general contractor in infrastructure construction, and the other is a specialized contractor that carefully selects its project portfolio. GRK actively pursues projects in a wider geographical area and business sector, including even large-scale road contracts.

In my opinion, both are gems of infrastructure construction in Finland. I have both in my portfolio, though with a significantly larger weighting in Kreate.

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Kreate’s new rail crane commissioned, an interesting innovation.

And at the same time, GRK is initiating change negotiations concerning rail construction.

This gives me somewhat conflicting thoughts.

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If there isn’t an unlimited opportunity to churn out dollars as fast as one can, then it’s good to specialize based on capability. This is certainly, in addition to maintaining a positive flow of information, the specialization Kreate talks about when emphasizing that it doesn’t focus on bulk, being just another piece swept along by the current.

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I wrote a new analysis for Salkunrakentaja.

:construction_worker_man::hammer_and_wrench::high_speed_train::construction_worker::hammer_and_wrench::high_speed_train::construction_worker_man::hammer_and_wrench::high_speed_train::construction_worker::hammer_and_wrench::high_speed_train:

Facing off: The bright spots of the stock exchange’s construction sector - infrastructure builders GRK Infra and Kreate

GRK Infra and Kreate have been the best-performing stocks in the Helsinki stock exchange’s construction sector this year. Will the companies’ growth continue?

:down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow::down_arrow:

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Here is a pre-earnings report from Kaisa on Kreate, which will publish its results on Wednesday, October 22. :slight_smile:

Kreate will report its Q3 results on Wednesday, October 22, at approximately 8:30 AM. We expect revenue to have continued stable growth in Q3, supported by a strong order book, and earnings to have improved moderately with increased volumes. Kreate’s share price has risen by approximately 15% since the Q2 results, as a result of which the stock’s valuation picture has turned neutral. Therefore, a small breather is justified in the short term, although in the longer term, the stock still has potential as earnings growth continues. We are revising Kreate’s target price to EUR 9.40 (previously EUR 9.20), but due to the share price increase, we are lowering our recommendation to ‘reduce’ (previously ‘add’).

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New gig coming up. By the way, Q3 results tomorrow. Interesting to see if the order book has continued to strengthen. Naturally, the result is also very interesting. Competitor GRK raised its guidance. Will Kreate follow suit :thinking:

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Great result! And best of all, the outlook is constantly clearing up. Hopefully @Atte_Jortikka or @Kaisa_Vanha-Perttula will get Timo Vikström for an interview again.

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Atte was interviewing CEO Timo Vikström.

Topics:

00:00 Start
00:13 Strong volume development
00:36 Investment needs in personnel
01:32 Cost pressure
02:15 Background of guidance
03:06 Growth outlook for infrastructure construction
03:52 Data center projects
04:31 Market consolidation

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Atte has prepared a new company report on Kreate. :slight_smile:

Kreate’s revenue growth significantly exceeded our forecasts in Q3. Due to strong volume development, profitability was also higher than our forecasts in absolute terms, although relative profitability remained slightly below our forecasts. After a strong quarter, the current year’s guidance appears cautious regarding revenue, which may be explained by the relatively slower revenue recognition of larger projects than before. Earnings growth and dividend yield in the coming years support the return expectation, but on the other hand, the valuation is tight with our current year’s forecasts. We raise Kreate’s target price to 10.5 euros (previously 9.4 euros), but reiterate our reduce recommendation.

Quoted from the report:

Timing-related fluctuation in cash flow

Kreate’s operational free cash flow dropped to EUR 0.5 million in Q3’25 from EUR 5.9 million in the comparison period. This deterioration was mainly due to the tying up of working capital during the quarter. Although the drop is significant, in our view, it is purely a timing-related phenomenon. Cash flow fluctuation between quarters is typical for Kreate’s project-driven business model.

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Vikström interviewed in Kauppalehti’s economic morning. Also discussion on Sweden’s infrastructure markets.

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