I was looking for that running yield myself as well, but didn’t find a clear mention, so it might be exactly that “coupon.” A three-percent return would indeed sound like a reasonable figure for running yield, if you compare it to other long-term bond funds like Seligson’s equivalents: Seligson & Co Rahastoyhtiö Oyj - Rahastojen arvot
That duration of 16 is confusingly high compared to Seligson’s somewhat similar “Euro-obligaatio” fund, where the duration is 7, though perhaps that Seligson equivalent invests in slightly shorter government bonds than this particular fund, which apparently holds these 15-30 year bonds and therefore likely has a higher duration.
As I understand it, you can roughly calculate the expected return like that, though I’m no expert in these as it’s not a familiar fund. I’m not entirely sure which rate should be followed there, though? You can hardly look at the 12-month Euribor, because these are very long-term loans of over 15 years. Their rates are unlikely to be in the same range as the 12-month Euribor and they don’t change as quickly? So if, for example, the 12-month Euribor were to drop by 2 percentage points over 3 years, I don’t believe the fund’s value would change by 16 x 2 percent, because they don’t use the 12-month Euribor but some other rate? Someone wiser might be able to correct me.
The running yield can grow annually from that if rates rise or decrease if rates fall, though maturities are so long in the bond papers that I wonder if a change in rates changes the running yield very quickly—perhaps not. So the majority of the expected return will consist of the change in interest rates, meaning you have to take quite a view on when the interest rate peak is at hand. If you invest too early, you’ll easily take a hit right at the start if rates rise higher than expected.
I too would like to see much more discussion here about bond funds. This seems to be the only thread besides the “Best yielding savings account” thread where bond funds are discussed. Now would perhaps be the best time to buy these long-term bond funds if you believe that interest rate hikes were pretty much it, meaning the best returns on these might be made very soon, but it’s strange that there isn’t much discussion about this on the forum. We could, however, be talking about returns of several tens of percent with moderate risk.