KH Group - Sievi Capital on a transformation journey

Sale in November, and in January a bankruptcy application is filed.

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It’s only a bankruptcy application at this stage, but bankruptcy wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. They didn’t want it to collapse under KH, so they paid a bit to find a “buyer”. Well, you’d think the bankruptcy estate would get a decent chunk of cash for those brands.

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Now that Indoor Group has been sold, what is KH Group’s leverage ratio? Could anyone answer?

This deal has now fallen through. Dosa withdrew. Probably good for KH Koneet.

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This was probably known, that this could happen. That’s why it was worth just getting rid of it, even at a negative sale price. Fortunately, this no longer affects KH Group.

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The Swedish krona has strengthened significantly against the euro in recent months. The SEK/EUR exchange rate range was approximately 0.90 - 0.93 in the last quarter. In the comparison period Q4/2024, the krona moved around 0.85-0.89 euros. The difference is about 5%. For KH Group, the strengthening of the krona means that KH-Maskin’s share of the business increases the euro-converted earnings and balance sheet value. Additionally, the strengthening of the krona against the euro and the dollar should have lowered the costs of machines and spare parts purchased in Sweden during the quarter compared to Q4/2024. I recall from previous earnings releases that KH-Koneet (and KH Maskin) do not use much currency hedging.

Following the negative profit warning issued in September, KH Group’s guidance for revenue from continuing operations is 190–200 million euros and for comparable operating profit 5–6 million euros. The strengthening of SEK/EUR and SEK/USD should, for its part, help in reaching the guidance.

In January, the krona’s exchange rate continued to strengthen, and the same minimum 5% difference and benefit could also be coming relative to the Q1/2026 comparison period.

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KH Group’s second-largest shareholder Mikko Laakkonen added 314k shares in January. Adjustments by other major shareholders were minor.

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KH Group Plc provides preliminary information on the 2025 revenue and comparable operating profit, which exceed the previous guidance given on 19 September 2025.

According to preliminary and unaudited information, KH Group’s revenue for 2025 is EUR 205 million and comparable operating profit is EUR 6.4 million. Both Nordic Rescue Group and KH-Koneet performed above expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025. Nordic Rescue Group’s operating profit grew more than anticipated in its Swedish operations, and in Finland, the company succeeded in exceeding its production plan, which increased revenue and profit for 2025. In KH-Koneet, the year-end efforts to increase machine sales and improve the profitability of the rental business were slightly more successful than previously estimated.

According to the previous guidance issued on 19 September 2025, KH Group estimated the 2025 revenue for continuing operations to be EUR 190–200 million and the comparable operating profit to be EUR 5–6 million.

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That clearly exceeded OP’s and Inderes’ estimates!

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Conveniently, the Chairman and the CEO managed to do a bit of shopping on the stock exchange. Surely they couldn’t have had information about the improved sales performance?

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For me and those of us who have suffered as shareholders of KH Group, it doesn’t really matter. Win-win-win. Good performance.

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No one stopped others from following suit and buying, and those purchases were made quite a while ago anyway.

The positive profit warning isn’t massive in itself, but considering that KH Group has offered nothing but disappointments for a few years, the signaling value is enormous.

It was a good plan after all to focus on KH Koneet a couple of years ago, even though the journey to get rid of the dead weight was long and expensive. Indoor, on the other hand, is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.

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Oh, so you think the misuse of insider information would be okay on a general level? As long as others buy afterwards.
Sellers are being treated unfairly here when there is information that is not known to all market participants. And I mean this on a general level.

Good development from the group in Q4 indeed :flexed_biceps:

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If paying to send Indoor to the slaughter wasn’t just management’s stupidity, but real value was actually seen in what remained and they wanted to protect it.

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Did I calculate correctly that KH Group must have generated an operating profit of as much as approximately EUR 4 million in Q4, considering today’s profit warning?

After such a significant positive profit warning, we should be able to assess whether this is just Q4 performance or if the trend has turned?

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Inderes’s adjusted EBIT% forecast beaten by approximately 20%.

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Inderes analyst comment.

“Based on preliminary data, KH Group’s Q4 comparable operating profit was at a very strong level of 4.3 MEUR, which clearly exceeded the level of 3.2 MEUR in the strong comparison period. The significant beat of the guidance was particularly surprising, considering KH Group’s markedly weak start to the year and the fact that KH Group only issued its previous guidance on September 19, 2025.”

EDIT: OP raised the target price to 0.60 euros and gave an ACCUMULATE recommendation (prev. reduce).

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It was indeed a shockingly strong performance from KH Group in Q4, and surely a relief for Calle to be able to deliver positive news after the Indoor exit that stirred mixed feelings. The beginning of the year went so poorly for KH Group that a second negative profit warning would have been on the cards without a clear turnaround in KH-Koneet’s performance level. Granted, the business environment seems to have developed favorably, but nonetheless. Presumably, NRG also saw more deliveries than usual concentrated in Q4.

KH Group’s performance is indeed so volatile that I wish the company would share more subsidiary-specific key figures to help us better understand what’s happening under the surface. In this company, the difficulty of forecasting is certainly highlighted.

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Calle and the board made the right decision regarding Indoor last year. Apparently, even a debt relief of a few million from KH Group to Indoor wasn’t enough to save Sotka & Asko. This means the insight and visibility within KH Group regarding this entity were clearer than what could have been inferred from public information. More capital would have had to be poured in if they had wanted to keep this albatross as part of KH Group.

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But why did KH Group’s shareholders specifically have to pay down Indoor’s debts by another 2 million euros even while giving up ownership? What about the other owners, and why wasn’t it just allowed to go bankrupt earlier? Those are probably the most relevant questions from a KH Group shareholder’s perspective when considering whether Calle and the board made the right decision.

Of course, I understand that there would have been some costs in that alternative as well, and apparently, financing negotiations regarding other units were easier after this was done. Still, there are plenty of banks.

Veijalainen certainly did a terrible job at KH Group, and especially regarding Indoor.

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