Ahead of Kesko’s Q4 report tomorrow, 12 investors have submitted their expectations. Share your own estimates for net sales and EBIT to be part of the consensus and see what others anticipate! You can find the estimate table for Kesko here: Kesko - Inderes
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Good news for Kesko’s building and home improvement sector. Every used home sale inevitably brings more bathroom and kitchen renovations. This is where Kesko’s investment in the construction sector starts to pay off. Sales volumes are still small, but now the direction is right.
The Kiinteistömaailma chain mediated a total of 830 sales and rental properties in January, which just ended, of which 613 were real estate brokerage and 217 were rental brokerage. “The year started with expected growth compared to the reference period, but even a 27 percent growth in the sale of used homes and properties was a slight surprise,” says Mika Laurikainen, CEO of Kiinteistömaailma Oy.
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Kiinteistömaailma publishes a press release every month, which almost always states how well the housing market is doing. So if one draws conclusions based on them, then the housing market has been one big celebration all of last year too:
P.S. Not every used home sale inevitably brings more bathroom and kitchen renovations.
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I bet that kitchens or bathrooms are redone in at most 10-20% of apartments, even partially.. 
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Kesko’s 2024 financial statements release has been published: Q4 result grew for the first time in eight quarters. Full-year net sales grew and comparable operating profit decreased.
Earnings guidance for 2025: The operating environment is expected to improve during 2025, but will still remain relatively challenging. Comparable operating profit is expected to improve in 2025 and be between EUR 640–740 million.
Dividend: Kesko’s Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting to be held on March 24, 2025, that a dividend of EUR 0.90 per share be paid for 2024, and that the dividend be paid again in four installments.
Management’s results info in Finnish can be viewed from 10:30 AM onwards at https://kesko.videosync.fi/2024-q4-tulokset
Release and other results materials: https://www.kesko.fi/sijoittaja/raportit-ja-presentaatiot/#event60051
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Result a bit soft.. If we get a toboggan run, I might become an owner. However, I believe the coming years will be bright. Investments and economic recovery will certainly have an effect at some point.
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Operating profit in line with Inderes’ forecasts and slightly below consensus.
EPS above Inderes’ and consensus forecasts.
Where do you see weakness in the result?
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During the year, campaigns and other marketing measures strengthened customer flows and sales, but our stores’ market share decreased due to a decline in average purchase.
That doesn’t look very convincing to me yet. The results are going downhill, but there’s definitely light at the end of the tunnel.
S-Group is pulling ahead..
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The dividend is decreasing for the third year already, and that doesn’t really look or feel good.
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Cut the dividend and let’s buy more hardware stores while they’re cheap. 
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I have written many times in this thread about not being in a hurry to invest in Kesko in this market. Construction is frozen, car sales are not hot in this economic climate, S-Group is fiercely grabbing market share.
I believe Kesko is a good stock for the future once Finland’s downturn eventually ends.
The fact that S-Group has an automated warehouse, competitive banking services, hotels, a service station business, restaurant operations, etc., has continuously increased customer-owners. With this concept, customers have also received genuine financial benefits from concentrating their purchases.
Kesko cannot beat S-Group on price, nor do I think it should. Quality must be maintained.
It’s simply the spirit of the times that the current market is not favorable for Kesko. People are increasingly price-conscious due to their financial situation, and that benefits S-Group. During an economic boom, perhaps it would be the other way around. Furthermore, during an economic boom, Kesko’s weaknesses will turn into strengths as construction and car sales will surely receive support.
Investments are also far-reaching, often yielding results only after years of delay.
I couldn’t find anything positive in Tim’s decision, even by forcing it. The decrease in interest rates is positive:+1:
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One takeaway from the conference call: Finland’s technical and hardware trade was flat in Q4, as expected. In January, growth reportedly continued despite one fewer weekday of sales.
This supports the story Kesko has told: the construction sector has passed the trough, and slight growth is ahead.
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Overall, it can be said that there have been difficult years behind us. But now the path is clear, so one can confidently hold a large stack of Kesko shares. If a defensive company like Kesko performed so admirably through difficult times, I only see positives in the coming years👌
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I was about to state the same thing as @Tunturisusi. Kesko’s core service offering is indeed very challenging in an environment like this:
- New car sales are historically dismal, with no signs of improvement. Kesko certainly has a massive operation in this area, and maintenance services and used car sales bring the necessary profit improvement.
- Construction is in a deep freeze, with no signs of improvement. This is genuinely causing Kesko headaches. It would require significant interest rate cuts to pick up, Euribor 2.5% is not enough.
- Competing on quality doesn’t help. Inflation ran so high and living costs rose so much that the masses won’t return to quality-conscious consumption anytime soon. S-Ryhmä is an attractive option for many in such a market, and it’s certainly not worth competing on price here.
- Lowering the dividend also reduces the stock’s attractiveness in the short term.
Nevertheless, Kesko has competent management, a broad business, and a proven long-term track record of profitable trade. I believe that, over time, this is a great stock, but at the moment, I don’t think the declines are over yet. Conversely, one might think this could be a good time to accumulate over the next few years. Such a player thrives during an economic boom.
Of course, there is also a lot of uncertainty in the world, with the USA messing around in who knows what direction, war being waged in Europe without a clear peace plan, and at home, housing sales, construction, and new car sales are in a deep freeze – and are not returning to a normal growth trajectory anytime soon.
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An absolutely insane stock reaction to an earnings report that met expectations! It’s important to understand that by staying on the sidelines and waiting for construction to recover, you’ll miss the share price rally that will come significantly earlier than actual digging begins at construction sites. I’m eagerly scooping up more of this. The downside is negligible, but the upside is massive.
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Good point.
Could it be that after the coronavirus pandemic a few years ago, people are more easily spooked and quicker to go into saving mode when faced with bad news? At least I recognize this tendency in myself. And lately, the news has predicted little else but the end of the world and war, partly for good reason.
All of Kesko’s growth drivers are aligned with a growing economy and activity, and the current global climate is simply not conducive to that.
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I don’t have scientific facts to back this up, but my gut feeling says the same. Anyway, in Finland, a certain kind of crisis mode or preparation for it is constantly on, and this can also be called resilience.
In any case, people are clearly saving and preparing now, whether one looks at card data or purchasing managers’ indices across Europe. And I also don’t consider that preparation to be wrong or bad. Indeed, there is significantly more uncertainty in the world compared to the years 2000-2020. And that is directly reflected in Kesko’s business operations.
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If market shares are lost, that already tells something, even if money is spent on price reductions. Spar will add another degree of competition..
Can someone shed light on what in the financial statement could be twisted into something positive?
In my opinion, the stock performance very much follows the situation Kesko is currently in.
This company will gain leverage when the economic cycle eventually turns. Before that, I’m not in a hurry to get on board.
If Kesko seriously enters the grocery retail price competition to win market share, it will certainly shoot itself in the foot in terms of its ability to generate profit.
A few days ago, Kauppalehti published a very descriptive article about Finland’s real wages, which, according to the 2025 forecast, are at the 2017 level
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This is already ensured by the change in the customer base’s age structure and ever-tightening taxation (VAT, energy taxes, income taxes, excise taxes, pension contributions…). Families with children aged 30-40 would be the best customers; their number is decreasing relatively quickly, while the number of pensioners, who buy only what is necessary for survival, is increasing.