A trade war has begun – and now the whole world is at stake

I don’t remember mentioning or reading anything like that, but I haven’t really delved into the topic very thoroughly either :smiley:

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According to this page, yes, if 50% or more of the owners of a foreign company are from “tax-unfriendly” countries:

"The surtax starts at 5%, increasing annually by 5% and capped at 20% after four years. It applies to certain key categories of income from US sources:

  • US Sourced-Passive Income (FDAPI): Includes dividends, interest, rents, and royalties from US sources; standard withholding (30%) could reach 50%.
  • US Real Estate Investments (FIRPTA): Income from selling US real estate or real estate investment trusts (REITs) and partnership distributions, with current withholding (15%) potentially rising to 35%.
  • US Business Income (ECI) for non-US Corporations: Active business profits earned by non-US corporations in the US become significantly more costly.
  • US Branch Profits Tax: Increased taxes on profits sent from US branches back to non-US parent companies.
  • Private Foundation Investment Income: Significantly higher US tax rates on investment income earned by non-US private foundations."

According to that, the tax would be levied on, for example, interest as well. :face_with_monocle:

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This is, in the big picture, an interesting opening. The United States, a great beneficiary of globalization, is joining a problem that has long been discussed in the EU: when economies primarily rely on services, and these services are provided by a large foreign company that pays its taxes on profits to tax havens, the equation quickly becomes unsustainable: the state becomes impoverished, and achieving economic growth requires significantly greater efforts. I personally see the curbing of such globalization as a very healthy development.

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It wouldn’t be a big step from that to even foreigners’ capital gains being taxed into Trump’s pocket, if other countries don’t agree to mafia-style blackmail regarding tariffs.

It’s worth noting that in the US Senate’s discussions regarding this law, there are also tax penalties for share buybacks.

Whether it passes or not remains to be seen. Still, it’s good to remember that Pandora’s box is now being opened. Non-US investors may in the future be taxed on any basis, at any percentage, etc., meaning a permanent factor of uncertainty for US investment ventures. If the tax screw for share buybacks doesn’t go through now, it could be coming tomorrow.

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In my opinion, there is a very essential difference there, that it applies to all owners, and it cannot be targeted only at “hostile foreign exploiters”. So when all investors are on an equal footing, the activity is considerably fairer and likely leads to more sensible decisions.

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Apparently, this much-discussed tax proposal is primarily a weapon to combat OECD’s proposals for tax harmonization (=to actually make big tech companies pay taxes). Not the first shot of a capital war.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/wall-street-stages-a-weird-tax-bill-freakout-35a4f6fe?mod=hp_opin_pos_1

“The latest odd panic concerns Section 899, which would create a retaliatory tax on nationals of countries that impose “unfair foreign taxes” on American companies. Misunderstanding is now rife, but this isn’t a catch-all protectionist provision. House tax writers are trying to deter foreign taxes arising from the global corporate-tax harmonization project devised by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and endorsed by the Biden Administration.”

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Here’s more information about the upcoming US stock buyback law. The most essential thing may not indeed be a specific tax percentage or similar, but rather that the bottle cap has been opened, and the tax treatment of US investments will henceforth be a windy terrain, with changes potentially occurring in various contexts.

The Stock Buyback Accountability Act proposes to increase this excise tax rate from 1% to 4%. Proponents argue that a higher tax rate would further deter companies from engaging in large-scale buybacks and instead promote reinvestment in their workforce and operations. However, as of now, this proposal has not been enacted into law.

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Hey, we started this customs brawl, but now we’re throwing the ball to you, as we went in unprepared and didn’t realize what we were doing.
Yours, Trump

…as if different parties haven’t already told their views to the White House. Nothing will change now, Trump messes things up for everyone with this :person_shrugging::sweat_smile:

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Sigh, I wish it were already November 2028. Still a long just over 3 years ahead :orangutan:


Today’s TACO serving. Some China tariffs are postponed until the end of August:

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TS Lombard had a good summary of the various legal provisions that could be invoked to continue the trade war if it got stuck legally.

These could be summarized as “necessity is the mother of invention”. :smiley:

Screenshot 2025-06-03 at 8.52.06

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EU-India free trade negotiations have progressed. About 8 out of a couple of dozen negotiation chapters have been resolved, and work is underway to bring the goal of a deal to be finalized by the end of the year to fruition.

The FT article below is behind a paywall, but here’s some information:

India is a destination for about 1/10 of the EU’s exports, and India’s exports to the European Union area are just under a fifth (which is quite significant, especially considering the large growth potential).

The EU wants - and will likely get - tariff reductions for, e.g., engineering products, alcohol, health products, and the strengthening of intellectual property rights.

India is interested in protecting its agriculture, exporting medicines and steel, and sending Indian skilled workers to Europe.

So, the aim is quite the opposite of what the White House’s meddler is pushing for.

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Pension companies are also starting to wake up to how 899 impacts those investing in the USA.

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The revenge tax 899 on foreign investors in the US would be reduced somewhat (5% less) and delayed, coming into force from the beginning of 2027. It is still unclear how the taxation of share buybacks would be increased in connection with the entire “Big&beautiful” legislative package.

Despite the partial softening of 899, the basis for the revenge tax on foreign investors in the US remains if the legislative package passes within the target schedule of July 4, 2025.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/senate-delays-scales-back-revenge-213716585.html

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China’s Premier Li Qiang says he is not interested in trade wars. According to the story below, he urged nations at the World Economic Forum to keep trade separate from politics and security issues.

Qiang emphasized the continuation of globalization and stated that the international economy is a means to influence world order. Li stressed the importance of cooperation and expressed confidence in China’s economy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/chinas-li-urges-not-to-turn-trade-into-a-political-or-security-issue.html

This might not perfectly fit the trade war theme, but somewhat:

Also, China is stepping up the “internationalization” of the yuan, as confidence in the weakened US dollar has declined.

The country is expanding foreign investors’ access to futures and options trading, developing the digital yuan, and encouraging the currency’s use in international trade, with the aim of reducing reliance on the dollar and strengthening the yuan’s global role.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/china-promotes-yuan-as-dollar-confidence-falters.html

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A (at least some kind of) trade agreement between the US and China!

Time to pop the champagne and watch stocks rise?

Update: Time to get another bottle of bubbly from the cooler? The US is revoking punitive taxes targeting non-US investors (the so-called 899 law).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-deal-kills-revenge-tax-211434243.html

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Taco man has come out again with the duties. Some small drop is visible in the rates too, but it might also be unrelated.

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Donald has now signed take-it-or-leave-it tariff level letters for 12 countries, which will be sent to various countries on Monday. Each country must therefore accept the tariff level as stated in the letter or expect an even harsher level of punishment. Also, the EU area’s tariff dispute is in its final stages and it doesn’t look good.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/07/05/trump-says-tariff-letters-to-12-countries-signed-going-out-monday.html

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Will the market still react to this? TACO has been spewing the same garbage from the beginning. No one believes in playing hard until the end anymore, just TACO.

Quite the art of the deal.

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Now comments are starting to come in. In Japan, they are already committing harakiri.

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