Exactly this from Kobeissi Letter
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It feels like Mr. Market has forgotten the effects of tariffs on the economy and too much past data is being looked at (mainly Q1 data, e.g., regarding results). Trade agreements are not negotiated in days or months; they are guaranteed to take time. As seen in the picture above, jobs are starting to be cut, and at the same time, inflation is rising (thanks to tariffs), so the American consumer is starting to be puzzled. And then people blindly buy stocks when Trump says so. The idea, of course, being quick turns related to the trade war. I, at least, believe that significant damage has already been done to the economy thanks to all the uncertainty, changes in logistics chains, and postponements of investment decisions. I’d bet that the ‘Sell in May and go away’ idea might be quite good to follow this year and buy cheaper stocks after the summer once Q2 results, year-end outlooks, and post-tariff data have been properly released. Of course, the Fed can save the markets with interest rate cuts, but this isn’t so clear either due to potentially rising inflation. It turned out to be quite a bearish message, but this is at least how I feel at the moment.
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Mr. Market is not at its strongest in new situations of which it has no experience. Mr. Market does not read or study history. It has to wait for things to literally come to hand (in this case, empty shelves, layoffs, negative news, etc.). Information about an investment slump or empty ports stares right in front of its eyes, but does not register. A similar tendency can be seen in its other activities too. It doesn’t even believe its own eyes if the sight contradicts its previous worldview. Mr. Market is us humans 
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This is entirely possible. For example, in April, China’s exports swelled by 8%!!! Three exclamation marks are allowed in this special case.
https://x.com/Vernepu/status/1920704632306667690
Impact will likely start from this month onwards.
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I already believe that cuts, such as the gutting of the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), will have serious consequences for the economy when hurricane season comes. FEMA is usually called upon annually for serious crises, but its operational capability may now be quite weak.
It seems that the market completely ignores the gutting of those important federal functions. And all the focus is on trivial tinkering with tariffs and how Trump tweets about his “deals”.
It may well be that people in poor states do not contribute anything to the economy from the stock market’s perspective, merely “sand on the stock exchange floor”, and my concern is therefore incorrect. After all, everything can be imported from abroad anyway if, for example, farmers go bankrupt when disaster aid is cut and agricultural subsidies are cut, etc.
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London Stock Exchange not celebrating the UK-USA trade deal. No wonder, as yesterday’s agreement was a real dud:
- Cemented a 10% general tariff on all trade
- There were exceptions, but very limited overall
- Additional tariffs coming, e.g., for medicines
- Many questions remained open and hanging in the air
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/09/cnbc-daily-open-london-markets-didnt-like-the-uk-us-trade-deal.html
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China’s exports to the US fell by 21% in April, but rose by the same amount to neighboring countries in the ASEAN bloc. Some analysts believe that China’s exports may still remain strong as Chinese manufacturers seek detours for exports to the United States through other countries – especially those that now have a 90-day deferral on reciprocal tariffs. For example, China’s exports to Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia grew by 23%, 28%, and 37% year-on-year in April.
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Yep. China’s export machine isn’t sputtering. In principle, as long as China’s own demand doesn’t pick up but US demand does, there’s tremendous pressure for Chinese goods to come through the door to the US, unless tariffs become insurmountable everywhere, US domestic demand collapses, or… China’s own demand grows. While working on this!
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I don’t know, but how big a role USA’s media and (fake) news play in this illogical market reaction to the economy. FOX News and other Trump propaganda media shamelessly drum up a different story. Avoiding or even directly lying.
For that matter, even the remaining non-Trump propaganda media seem to focus on criticizing whatever, whenever, and that’s not pleasant to listen to either.
In America, neutral media is thus becoming quite a minority. Even they now run into problems if they don’t report on Trump in a positive light. So that too easily turns into forced pro-Trump communication.
Sadly, it’s slowly starting to resemble the media of an authoritarian country.
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Now every investor has to consider a) whether to try to influence the situation or b) whether to try to profit from it.
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a) cannot
b) cannot. If I know better than the majority of investors that a certain investment product like sp500 is riskier than generally assumed, I cannot benefit from it - except by adjusting my own required rate of return upwards, which is natural when the risk level rises.
That’s it.
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Rump’s inflated ego has certainly been flattered recently, as the big and mighty stock market has obediently jumped according to his every public statement.
It may be that he currently feels a compelling need to pull an even bigger rabbit out of the hat, given that the deal finalized with the British barely made the meter budge 
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Tero, who has occasional bear tendencies, estimated that the China negotiations today lasted 17 minutes. I don’t know if it’s true. It’s still early on Saturday.
Hopefully, Mr. Market hasn’t had any delusions that this would progress very smoothly.
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Yle’s story. If Chinese negotiators have walked out of the talks, the reason is likely that the US negotiating team has been unable to present anything coherent or reasonable and/or has made ridiculous demands to China, along the lines of “Xi must now come to meet Trump, apologize, and promise to behave”.
Yle optimistically suggests that the US will likely back down, but the problem with the entire negotiation package is that US negotiators lack any credibility. Whatever they say or promise, Trump can announce the opposite in a tweet a couple of hours later.
Thus, China’s strategy is likely to enter negotiations without giving anything in advance (Trump would declare it a great victory over China on social media), but rather everything starts with Trump ending the tariffs, after which China will follow suit. But the US must do it publicly first. If that doesn’t suit them, then fine, China can certainly wait even past the next presidential election.
That certainly won’t sit well with Trump’s temperament, but he’ll start feeling the heat at the same rate as store shelves empty and layoff rounds begin, first in logistics and retail, and then gradually moving deeper into the value chain and societal structures, while the prices of dwindling goods increase.
The impacts of the trade war are increasingly being felt in Americans’ lives, and therefore the United States is likely soon ready to back down in its trade war with China.
US ports are quieting down. According to an estimate, in early April, over a third fewer cargo ships departed from China to the US compared to last year. At the same time, consumer prices for Chinese products have already started to rise in the United States.
As a result, Trump will suffer a major defeat, but he will never admit it. This idiotic trade war is a lesson in humility for the United States.
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Exactly, China has time, money, and especially patience to wait for the trumpet to drive into a wall and then present its proposed solutions to the matter. It must be remembered that this is a dictatorship led very strictly by one party, meaning the state certainly has the ability to both direct companies and silence any potential grumbling, which is unlikely to occur anyway. In addition, the treasury is in such good shape that a temporary drop in exports will hardly cause any gnashing of teeth, and even if it did, the gnasher can always be sent to mountain camps to calm down.
If the USA had real experienced politicians, professional negotiators, and most importantly, even some kind of sustainable strategy for achieving its goals to throw into negotiations, the situation might be different. In the current situation, China is wiping the floor with the trumpet’s staff, which I believe the walkout partly indicates. China doesn’t need to stay there wasting its time.
Besides, they know very well that fruitless negotiations right from the start are perhaps the best way to irritate the trumpet and get him even further off track. He’ll probably be blaring something from his “platform” again soon.
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“American authorities are withdrawing from trade negotiations with China, and it is not clear whether the negotiations will continue.”
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Yes, I suppose negotiations have been going on there all day, even though some people couldn’t keep their cool 
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The reporting on the negotiations has again been such that we can only guess what is happening there, or has not happened, or is or is not about to happen. A proper casino. 
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Latest information on the negotiations… Would this go into a meme thread? Hard to say, the entire operation of the United States is a comprehensive tragicomedy, which one couldn’t even joke about a year ago without being truly unbelievable.
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Trump’s trade war has not even scratched China’s exports – Huge figures
China is estimated to have the upper hand in the trade war started by Donald Trump.
Donald Trump’s tariffs do not seem to be biting into China so far. To the market’s surprise, China’s exports, on the contrary, grew in April, writes the Hong Kong media South China Morning Post.
Trump got the Chinese to reject American products, which even China’s ruling Communist Party could not achieve, notes the financial newspaper The Economist.
The tariff war has been criticized for weakening the position of American companies in China and making the Chinese buy domestic products. China is a vital market for megabrands like Starbucks, Tesla, and Nike.
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