Cash Kids

Since there’s a clear shift from stocks to cash noticeable on the forum, I thought I’d start a thread like this. Here you can discuss the beauty of cash amidst the market turmoil. You can also ponder what else can be done with cash besides hoarding it in a sock drawer!? Is stock investing finally buried, is it still worth returning to the markets!? When will the first brave soul dare to make an initial investment into the turbulent markets!? Who will find the absolute bottom in stock prices!? The discussion could possibly be hosted and moderated by the new chairman of the Cash Party (formerly the Dividend Party and the Own Share Buyback Party), @Verneri_Pulkkinen !? It is also hoped that those trading with too large a stock allocation (over 30%) will not come to troll the thread!

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Hey, timontti checking in

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Quite a gathering of bears in sight :smiley:

Verneri has no business in the thread either, unless there’s a lot of pressure (money) under the mattress.
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I ended up with 95% cash, first 50% three weeks ago, and then the remaining 45% immediately on Orange Thursday morning. And why… Because my own extremely boring companies had risen about 20% YTD without announcing anything significant. Having followed these (e.g., Nordea) for years, I didn’t see a driver for the rise, only clouds on the investment horizon. So why wouldn’t I be in cash if the risks seem greater than the potential gains? In this game, one should only be in it to make more money. And we will certainly return to the market, but how and when depends on the news of spring and summer. Yes, the 2026 dividend spring still interests me… maybe.

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As a pat on the back, let’s review the benefits of cash:

  1. Even if the stock market falls, the nominal value of cash does not decrease. Currency inflation is a concern as long as purchases are made with the currency, and an investor’s allocation has no impact on this.
  2. A high cash weighting allows for buying cheaper stocks with larger amounts than a low cash weighting.
  3. An investor’s total return is significantly improved if they manage to avoid a portfolio collapse. Navigating a downturn with a small stock weighting and participating in a new upswing with a large stock weighting leads to beating the market.
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In itself, it’s probably correct to speak generally about cash weighting in percentages, but on the other hand, someone’s 5% cash weighting can be larger in euros than another’s 99% cash weighting. Nevertheless, good luck to all 100% cash-weighted bottom trawlers! Let the games begin!

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And the total return is equally significantly weakened by managing to avoid the rise due to a large cash allocation. Good luck with buying at the bottom! :wink:

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In these times, it’s comforting to dig up situation-appropriate advice from stock gurus’ sayings (yes, like horoscopes, you can always find something that fits the situation and your own view :smile:). Here are a few classics from Seppo Saario:

Take good care of your money
Admitting a mistake keeps losses small. If you are uncertain, reduce your risk and exit the market completely.

Ensure your survival from an unpredictable unfavorable situation
In investment markets, market conditions can change suddenly due to an unforeseen event. Prepare to withstand unfavorable market developments for a long time. Debt-free, your mind is light in the eye of the storm. Always keep part of your assets in cash or in a form that can be quickly converted to cash.

Make your investment decisions according to the main trend of stock market development
Exit the market when the main trend of development is downward. Let someone else own the shares while market development is declining. When stock prices fall, shareholders become poorer.

The above are naturally not investment recommendations :slight_smile: I myself panicked so much on Friday that I emptied half of my stock portfolio - some went with a small loss, some had also seen price increases and dividends in the early part of the year, so my feet stayed relatively dry for now. The portfolio still contains shares that I believe might best hold their own, but we’ll see. At least now I feel a bit lighter following what happens.

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:smiley: No, he doesn’t.

That AOT portfolio is a bit misleading. There’s more cash on OST and in the hodler. I mainly make new investments in the latter two. 25% of the portfolio is cash if Inderes is excluded. As I usually exclude it in my mental accounting, my relationship with Inderes’ stock is different from others.

On the other hand, should I take into account housing, etc., in these calculations?

And what does cash even tell? The amounts are so small that if I find great ideas, a 25% cash weighting quickly becomes 0%. :smiley: I started the year with that logic, with a 30% cash weighting. Then came the stimulus package in Germany, and the cash weighting was suddenly 0%, actually even slightly negative as I got a bit overexcited. :smiley: And now it’s back to 25% as I quickly divested from companies I felt were uncertain in the changed environment and consider the probability of better buying opportunities high enough to justify such maneuvering.

I adjust weights and always look for the best idea, but that’s my style. Others have their own styles.

If an investor’s portfolio is several years’ net salary, the nurturing of cash and protection of capital is viewed differently than if it were a couple of months’ net salary. As it often tends to be at the beginning of an investment career.

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Would ‘Cash Party’s Spring Days’ be a good name for the thread? :grin::person_shrugging:

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My contribution to the thread will be negligible, and therefore I won’t be writing much here - I promise.

I had a hunch that this thread would open soon. I eagerly awaited who would take on the mantle. Palokärki couldn’t wait for Timontti or Verneri and just launched the thread.

I suspect this will become exactly like the company-specific threads. Reasons for the upcoming collapse will be sought daily from Trump’s X-storages and China’s Jingping’s tea color. Like-minded people will feed each other’s hunger for thought, and “bears” will be flagged out of the thread without remorse :laughing: A black swan will be sought from who knows where, and Timontti will get a huge number of likes when he finds it. At least lying to themselves, all the “bulls” in the thread will remember to mention in every post: “I hope I’m wrong.”

The situation is admittedly quite enigmatic. One should somehow be able to assess how confidence in the Americans’ actions will recover if and when the situation calms down. How long is investors’ memory, and will their nerve fail at the first rises? How strong is Trump’s stubbornness, or is this just a game after all? An absolutely incomprehensible number of variables, and partly because of this, I made an intermediate decision, where I lightened up a bit, cash 20%. As if by magic, precisely those lightened positions have recovered or held their ground in the turmoil :rofl: Of course, the situation is far from over.

A good rule, but for me, it would probably mean I wouldn’t dare to buy anything :upside_down_face:

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I, myself, have a hunch that soon we’ll get a spin-off of Verneri’s Quarter, “Verneri’s Cash Tips”, which fits this time of uncertainty like a glove :slight_smile: I, somewhat foolishly, laid down rules for the thread in that opening post, and now I guess I mostly have to be quiet too, unless I have something constructive to say about the benefits of cash :slight_smile: . My last cash just went to Nordea, but soon we’ll get Fortum dividends again, I can hardly wait. Hopefully I’ll get to report on their use before I get banned from the forum :slight_smile:

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That, by the way, is the weakness of larger cash positions, as well as the weakness of overly large stock positions in relation to mental fortitude: the world is wanted to be seen in a way that proves one’s own position correct. If one has a lot of cash, the weakest news is sought out and over-interpreted. If 70% of the portfolio is in some Canadian small cap, all news supporting its success is sought, etc.

Therefore, one should do otherwise and think exactly the opposite: why one’s own position might be wrong.

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That’s exactly right. I personally see this somewhat like this at the moment. Everyone looks for the right emphasis for themselves. I’m 100% sure that I won’t hit the mark even in this market situation :smiley:

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I currently have about 75% of my assets in cash (or as numbers in an account), and that percentage only grows as stocks continue their decline :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:
Where do others keep/utilize their money?
Do you just let it sit in Nordnet waiting for a buying opportunity? In a normal bank account or in a high-interest savings account? Literally in a sock drawer? :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:
I currently put almost all my “extra” money into my Svea high-interest account; even if it doesn’t accumulate huge profits there, it’s a better store than letting it sit in a normal account.
And I’d rather take even +€100 profit from a high-interest account than -€5000 loss from stocks :thinking::skull_and_crossbones:

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I personally divide cash into two parts:

  1. Emergency Fund
  2. Free Cash

The emergency fund is buffer money, so-called for a rainy day. It is only touched in a truly necessary emergency, which, fortunately, I haven’t encountered yet. This is invested in a short-term interest fund.

Free cash is the cash that remains when the emergency fund (and any potential large near-future expenses) is subtracted from the total. This is the cash that can be freely invested in the market without affecting any living expenses.

Free cash is now a good 20% of the portfolio (usually only about 5%). This has been purely following Warren Buffett’s lead regarding cash; I have been accumulating this for a longer time, and the intention is to invest this money in the stock market once I am a bit wiser, i.e., after Buffett’s shareholder meeting in May.

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Cash has been accumulated here; yesterday, even the trading almost succeeded, and today there was a 3% daily rise, which was balm for YTD wounds and properly cleared out portfolios. Cash on the AOT account side is around 90%. Of course, many times that amount is tied up in unlisted companies I own; it’s risk money there too, of course, but a much more enjoyable pursuit when money has a purpose. No bank money has been involved in the main business; now some affordable loan is being taken out there, and through that, more cash will come to myself. Nordnet’s suitable 800k leverage has been idle for too long; surely that day will come sometime… But perhaps I should still focus on work rather than stock market speculation, and try to time the next nascent upturn, even though, of course, that naturally won’t succeed.

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Dear cash party comrades. I must confess that after yesterday’s cat party, the cash might be closer to…

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So I have made amends in the matter

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There is cash, including available leverage, equivalent to about five years’ worth of living expenses.

Now, almost everything is gradually being put on the market, and mortgage payments for investment properties have also been put on hold, as cheap leverage can be obtained from there.

We are confident that we will recover at the latest by the next decade.

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Contrary to my previous plan, I switched to a 100% cash position. Partly by accident, though, as I accidentally sold from the AOT side as well, even though the intention was to only clear the OST and utilize tax deductions.

This might result in a loss, but the situation only seems to be escalating, and it still feels like there’s more to lose than to gain right now. I’ll humbly rejoin the bull market when one begins.

At least this brought peace of mind.

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