Qualifications and experience have existed before. The question is, do we want the same departure again in a year or a year and a half?
Now, perseverance and tenacity are needed.
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Yes, Kamux is looking for profitability improvement, as the chain’s name suggests.
Here’s a recap from Q3/24 materials of what Kamux has done for its brick-and-mortar network during summer -24.
A big change, visible in the numbers with a delay, depending somewhat on the nature of the commercial property lease agreements.
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If we look at Inderes’ target prices for Kamux, it can be observed that one year after setting the target price, the share price has been below the target price 17/18 times. Historically, the target price has thus been undershot with a 94.4% probability.
Table: Target Prices vs. Realization
| Date | Target | Realization | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.05.21 | 17,00 € | 8,525 € | -49,9 % |
| 21.07.21 | 18,50 € | 7,750 € | -58,1 % |
| 16.08.21 | 17,00 € | 6,760 € | -60,2 % |
| 14.11.21 | 14,00 € | 5,700 € | -59,3 % |
| 20.11.21 | 14,00 € | 4,982 € | -64,4 % |
| 23.01.22 | 14,00 € | 4,490 € | -67,9 % |
| 06.03.22 | 13,00 € | 5,455 € | -58,0 % |
| 16.05.22 | 12,00 € | 5,415 € | -54,9 % |
| 15.08.22 | 8,00 € | 6,055 € | -24,3 % |
| 21.11.22 | 7,50 € | 5,355 € | -28,6 % |
| 10.01.23 | 5,40 € | 5,425 € | 0,5 % |
| 06.03.23 | 6,00 € | 5,230 € | -12,8 % |
| 15.05.23 | 6,00 € | 5,860 € | -2,3 % |
| 25.07.23 | 5,60 € | 5,120 € | -8,6 % |
| 14.08.23 | 6,40 € | 4,985 € | -22,1 % |
| 27.09.23 | 6,40 € | 4,015 € | -37,3 % |
| 07.11.23 | 6,40 € | 3,490 € | -45,5 % |
| 13.11.23 | 6,40 € | 3,325 € | -48,0 % |
Date: Date of setting the target price
Target: 12-month target price for the stock
Realization: Stock price after 12 months (closing price of the day)
Deviation: Deviation of the realized stock price from the target price
Sources:
[1] Kamux Comprehensive Report, Inderes, 25.09.2024
[2] Historical stock data, Nasdaq
As a development suggestion, a data-driven mathematical model and a feedback loop should be adopted for setting the target price, which would allow the target price to be adjusted by a factor based on historical realization. In this way, the accuracy of the target price might improve over time.
What do you think of the suggestion?
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I’m thinking that only an engineer could suggest such a thing (no offense, if you are/are not an engineer) 
There is no financial theoretical basis for that, and it would only create a new layer in between that reduces transparency.
Rather, Inderes should abandon the entire target price concept, because then, in addition to the company’s value, one tries to guess market sentiment 12 months ahead.
I myself have often suggested switching to fair value-based targets. Additionally, if a fair value range is provided in addition to a point estimate, natural boundaries are obtained for when the recommendation is buy/add/reduce/sell.
Buy = market price below the lower end of the fair value range
Add = market price between the lower end and the point estimate
Reduce = market price above the point estimate but below the upper end of the range
Sell = market price above the upper end of the range
But this is already well off-topic for the thread, so no more on this.
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2 posts were merged into the thread: Inderes’ Analyses (formerly Inderes’ new recommendation policy)
According to Swedish media, Hedin, a major car dealership that has expanded to 13 countries, is in serious trouble. New car sales are slumping, bond covenants are being breached, and a stock of 10,000 used cars is stagnating in Sweden.
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Regarding car sales in general, car manufacturers can certainly blame themselves for new car prices having jumped quite a bit upwards in just a few years. For 30,000 euros, you can get some entry-level model, and for an electric car equipped with a decent battery, you have to shell out at least 50,000 euros at the dealership. An ordinary working-class person cannot afford, or it’s not sensible, to put such sums into a car. This then reflects on used cars as well.
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If my Swedish skills weren’t completely off, the article talked about the entire group’s car inventories, not just used ones or just from Sweden.
This is technically true, but the mentioned covenants are so-called incurrence covenants, meaning they are only measured if the company takes on new debt. Therefore, the situation is not as critical as the article might imply. Hedin, after all, reports quite comprehensive quarterly reports, and some time has passed since the Q3 release, so there was no actual new information here.
EDIT: That is, regarding the bond terms; I don’t know about bank loans, nor do I know more specifically about Hedin’s financial situation in general.
Hedin’s reports can be found here
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Hedin in Sweden has accumulated an inventory of over 10,000 vehicles in the group’s various companies, which ties up capital and incurs interest costs.
You might be right. I myself read that “Hedin i Sverige” refers to the Swedish operations. The problem is explained away by saying that within the group, it is still possible to move cars between different countries according to demand.
Dagens Industri ran a fairly prominent story on the topic yesterday, even though the information is public. Regarding Kamux, this case probably also illustrates that the market in Sweden is progressing with the handbrake on.
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The used car market is indeed progressing very well in Sweden in terms of volume, but on the margin side, it seems that others besides Kamux also have challenges (Kamux has also, of course, seen a sharp decline in revenue). Even Hedin complained in its Q3 report about weakened margins for used cars, although the main reason mentioned was the falling prices of electric cars. And Hedin indeed operates across Europe, so conclusions concerning only Sweden should not be drawn from the group’s figures or situation. For example, in Finland, Hedin reported that used car margins had improved (though figures are not disclosed, so we don’t know what level they are at).
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I also watched this Aramis CMD, which @Kultapossu1 wrote about in another thread. The mention of Kamux was quite interesting considering they don’t operate in the same markets and Kamux’s model is still strongly store-driven. In this context, I would consider it positive that they mentioned Kamux, and Kamux is to some extent moving towards centralized car processing, which is an essential element for Aramis.
If one wants to speculate, considering Aramis’s growth ambitions and style (entering new markets through acquisitions), one could imagine that Aramis could use Kamux’s German operations as a foundation for a new venture into Germany. It is, after all, one of Europe’s largest markets where Aramis has no presence at all, and there aren’t many used car-focused companies there if one wanted to acquire one. Kamux, of course, might not have any desire to give up its German operations, but it certainly came to my mind when listening to that.
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This is a good point, because Aramis is, however, expanding into new countries through acquisitions. They are currently already in culturally similar Austria learning operating models with which they could succeed in Germany in the future, so Kamux could well be in their sights considering a new wave of German expansion. Aramis’s toughest competitor, Auto1 Group, already has a strong foothold in Germany, so getting started by organically conquering the market hardly seems like a very attractive option.
Sales were still good in November: https://www.aut.fi/tilastot/kaytettyjen_autojen_kauppa
The Finnish market is not holding back now. In fact, it was the best November since these statistics began (since 2015).
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Approximately 15 of the Top 100 owners had increased their ownership in Kamux in November.
But no cornering observed, even though the share price is approaching rock bottom Largest shareholders
Petri had slightly increased (his stake) and Zeroman Oy, i.e., Pyysing, if I remember correctly.
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Yeah, it was a good November, though that figure has its contributing factors, as all dealerships are now focused on used cars.
Also, the number of vans is really good, which is significant for Kamux.
I have been following Kamux’s inventory just in units.
I wonder what would happen to the number of sales in Sweden if every dealership had 20-30 more cars in stock.
Perhaps Sweden’s losses are being covered by running down inventory, thus securing cash flow…
Still no sign of the acquisition of a Swedish sourcing company.
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From the TOP100 owner list linked above, one can see that Pyysing’s “quite marginal Kamux position” was 45,000 shares at the beginning of November, and in accordance with his strategy, he has continued to accumulate as the price has fallen.
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If you think I don’t know what avg down means, then fine. It can be done in two ways - well or very badly. Aki’s salvation is probably that there’s a lot of money saved in the wallet, or Kamux rockets really hard. The average price there is still high unless the weights of the purchases have grown relatively quite a lot as it went down.
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Here are Thomas’s and Rauli’s comments on November’s used car trade.
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Unsurprisingly, used car dealers are at the top of the Finnish Consumer Protection Authority’s contacts: Kamux first, Saka second. Last year the positions were reversed. Paid article.
In addition to complaints about car defects typical for the industry, it is mentioned about Kamux that contacts are received regarding additional warranty commitments whose content and terms the customer has not understood. The CEO of Kamux Finland regrets this.
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Perhaps a minor detail in the grand scheme of things, but I noticed (heard) that Kamux has quietly closed its Ylivieska store completely. To my understanding, no announcement has been made about this (or if it has, I missed it and couldn’t find it quickly when I googled).
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