Good sign that NC ownership is moving directly from one pocket to another. Even in those, there seems to be a bit of growth potential, as a large chunk moved at 28 SEK at Christmas, and now it’s 30 SEK. These (perhaps) somewhat define that flat price.
My own expectation is that NC will report below 20%, whereby one could think that their influence on Intrum’s decisions would no longer be so great, after which some joker quickly buys as much as a 10% stake.
But how long this will last, the range could be from days to years.
The owner list had been slightly updated. NC has reached around 25%, this will trigger a flag when they fall below this amount. And there hasn’t been any major collapse in the stock, meaning there has been interest, at least a few Norwegian companies among the largest have continued to add Intrum. It’s good to continue from here…
Look, it came early. I wasn’t expecting it until next week, as it usually arrives around the tenth of the month. But this is good.
It’s really good that NC’s ownership is decreasing more significantly and that some have sold – without a complete stock price collapse.
There’s been a bit of this and that on LinkedIn regarding Ophelo and Intrum, which I’ve been following, but nothing so dramatic that it would have occurred to me to share it here. Just good, basic buzz, though.
Let’s continue the exercises.
Edit: For my own amusement, I’ve noted down Nordnet’s ownership figures in Intrum, in case I turn it into a chart at some point.
The number is steadily dropping:
11.2. 7700
12.2. 7692
20.2. 7635
25.2. 7596
4.3. 7564
6.3. 7537
Intrum’s February trading volume appears to have been approximately 9.7 million shares, and NC sold 3.5 million shares, meaning a whopping 36% of the entire month’s trading volume consisted solely of sales by the main owner. When you also factor in short sellers and small investors who have lost hope, it’s no wonder the share price keeps falling again and again.
Although NC’s ownership has decreased significantly, the remaining 30 million shares will provide plenty to sell for a long time, unless they finally manage to sell a larger quantity at once.
Since September, the stock has mainly traded with low volume between 25-33 SEK. I tried a swing trade for the first time in my life. On Feb 20, I sold 21k shares at 31.6 SEK, and bought them back this week at an average price of 28.1. I got 23k shares in return, and my total position grew from 33,000 to 35,000. I just achieved my minimum target with the trade.
We are approaching the announcement of the debt restructuring results, so I don’t dare to repeat the trick anymore.
Intrum has also reached an agreement with the holdout group . The 2025 Ad Hoc group has committed to:
Withdrawing all their complaints related to the Chapter 11 reorganization.
Committing to support the reorganization process and vote in favor of it.
In return, Intrum has agreed to pay some of the group’s advisory fees. As a result, approximately 92% of Intrum’s bondholders support the restructuring.
It’s great that things are moving forward and issues are resolving. A huge amount of time and money was spent because of this small group swimming against the current, and for what, when everyone’s interests are the same anyway. I hope Intrum now faces less rough waters in the spring
Yesterday I tried to read a bit of the investor communications related to Intrum and browsed this thread, but it’s really difficult to form a reasonable view of the future.
The profitability of the Servicing business developed positively last quarter, but apparently the profitability of the Investing side is weakening due to the Cerberus arrangements. It feels like they are constantly reporting non-recurring items and adjusted figures.
The approval of the corporate restructuring is apparently just a formality now. Debt payments can be postponed and capital cut, which eases the situation but doesn’t solve it. At some point, they will have to return to the capital markets.
Management and board members are buying shares, but couldn’t that be part of their compensation?
Regarding Ophelos, percentages have been presented so far, not euros.
Rubio is indeed very convincing in his appearances.
I’m asking because I don’t know: is there a situation where management can buy shares through a compensation scheme in such a way that it is profitable for them, even if the company is in a bad situation and further stock price decline or even bankruptcy is known to be coming?
Investment partnership with Cerberus finally concluded
The agreement allows Intrum to scale its investment activity without increasing its debt, providing servicing revenues and additional investment management revenue, in line with the company’s ‘capital-light’ strategy.
How is that concerning? Hasn’t that been known all along? Cerberus’s money is being used, which of course also collects a large portion of the profits, but then again, Intrum also gets a share and more to collect. Perhaps that’s a better option when there isn’t essentially enough money to handle this business on the same scale anymore. The investment management business won’t be as big in the future, but isn’t the intention now to shift resources to the servicing business?
Intrum’s ownership listing has been updated. I’m on the wrong computer so I can’t really compare it to the previous one, but it seems like NC’s reductions happened mainly in the early part of the month.
Next week on Tuesday, a bigger event, a “plan meeting”, starts at ten Finnish time, and perhaps some announcement will come in the afternoon.
However, there have been various announcements that the debt restructuring process is progressing in court as it should. Nevertheless, these have not had an impact on the buying pressure of the stock.
And minimal insider purchases from the end of March, the announcement for which only came this week:
The NC sales might have occurred when Rubio was shopping; there was a slightly higher volume then, so almost without exception, NC also starts selling the price down…
Here’s some of my own tracking. The 20% limit is quickly approaching for NC; it remains to be seen if anything other than a flag will be raised then.
"STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) Intrum’s bondholders voted on Tuesday at a so-called plan meeting held at the Stockholm District Court on the company’s proposed capital strengthening plan.
Voters were divided into three groups: lenders under the revolving credit facility, term loan lenders, and bondholders. For the court to confirm the plan, a majority of at least two-thirds from each group was required to vote yes, which was achieved with a clear majority.
Following the vote, which was monitored by Nyhetsbyrån Direkt, the District Court also decided to approve the restructuring plan. The plan then also requires official approval from a US court.
I guess everything is progressing as it should..
. The 2025 Ad Hoc group has committed to:
