# Inderes Coffee Room (Part 7)
**URL:** https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486
**Category:** Sijoittaminen
**Created:** [May 14, 2023, 1:32pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486 "2023-05-14T13:32:46Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 16
### Author:  [@Nallekarhu1](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Nallekarhu1)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 5:19am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/325 "2023-05-19T05:19:09Z")
Florida and Carolina have now played 6 periods in a row and it’s still going. It’s on Veikkaus-TV for free if you want to watch some tired NHL hockey with your morning coffee. I’m just wondering how long the psyche can handle going full tilt, and at what point you start thinking that it doesn’t matter who wins as long as you get to go rest.
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### Author:  [@ljkangas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/ljkangas)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 5:30am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/326 "2023-05-19T05:30:57Z")
> [@enska](#):
>
> And I, of course, hold some Duell myself. It’s not the first time my choice hasn’t worked out, and certainly won’t be the last. Somehow those COVID-era beneficiaries should have just been spotted, but they weren’t.
I am genuinely confused. I thought the mentioned analyst would honorably go all the way to zero with their boots on, since it is such a high-quality value company after all. There was no shortage of positive descriptions in the reports, and the potential was massive. This was back when the share price was about four times what it is now. I was very close to investing in this myself even above 4 euros, but some dissonance always nagged at me: “there’s clearly something I’m not getting here, why is this such a good company.” I ended up not buying.
For me, it’s a bit like with Qt; when I don’t quite understand, I stay out. Sometimes that’s for the best, although certainly not always 😂 . (_I’m not buying Qt even if I could get it for under 40 euros…_)
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### Author:  [@Sfinski](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sfinski)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 5:41am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/327 "2023-05-19T05:41:55Z")
> [@Sijoittaja-alokas](#):
>
> Here is **MacroAlf’s** interesting mini-tweet thread about the Dollar. 🙂 👇
Since I haven’t been buying stocks while being bearish, most of the “returns” have come from just holding dollars. =P
In a way, I hope the dollar strengthens, but then what about in the future if I want to invest from my salary into dollar stocks. Of course, a strengthening dollar is also bad for stocks. IDK. I’m totally lost regarding market movements. My own expectations are completely opposite. So, I’ll continue with the old familiar: “If you don’t know what to do, do nothing.” I just hope this doesn’t have to go on for many more years…
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### Author:  [@Divinesia](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Divinesia)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 5:44am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/328 "2023-05-19T05:44:26Z")
Thanks for the tip!
Pucks are dropping off the blades, and it seems many don’t have the strength to shoot properly anymore. Great stuff. 😃
EDIT: Tkachuk settled it. Florida was definitely more dangerous in the last 10 minutes and they hit the post as well, so the right team surely won this game. Was it the sixth longest game in NHL history?
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### Author:  [@Mirko\_Sampo\_IR](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Mirko_Sampo_IR)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 6:14am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/329 "2023-05-19T06:14:27Z")
> [@Geologiopiskelija](#):
>
> [Mandatum - varainhoitoa ja vakuutuksia - #23 käyttäjältä Mirko\_Sampo\_IR - Osakkeet - Inderes forum](https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/mandatum-nallen-yritysjarjestelyperinnon-jatkaja/39416/23?u=geologiopiskelija)
>
> I don’t know if you noticed it yourself while underlining the text, but is “vuosein 2024-2026” supposed to be there? It sounds like some dialect or 19th-century Finnish 🤠
Yeah, I noticed. Successfully managed to copy-paste the same typo into three other places as well 😅 But when it’s a 170-page document in a small font, prepared on a fairly tight schedule and full of legalese, these things just slip through 🤷♂️
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### Author:  [@Verneri\_Pulkkinen](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Verneri_Pulkkinen)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 6:14am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/330 "2023-05-19T06:14:47Z")
> [@Sugamoah](#):
>
> I wonder how rare that Buy → Reduce recommendation downgrade is? I can’t think of a similar case right off the top of my head.
It doesn’t happen very often, but I wouldn’t call it rare either, assuming Inderes usually has about 15-30 Buy recommendations (with roughly 150 companies under coverage) and presumably, every single one of them can’t be a hit. 😃 If a bit over 50% hit in the long run, it’s a stellar performance, so one could assume that happens to 14 cases continuously. 😃
A tip of the hat to the analyst for the fact that, despite the high visibility and pressure of the case, they admit the mistake (via the recommendation change) and change their stance.
* * *
Broadening the topic a bit. I’ve always seen it as a challenge in building Inderes’ brand how analysis is probably the only product where the customer promise is top-tier if it works 51% of the time.
Imagine, for example, a restaurant where the dishes fail 49% of the time? 😃 Or an appliance store where 49% of the vacuum cleaners won’t start? 😃
Of course, Inderes’ other products, such as the website, forum, IR services, and webcasts (actually super critical for customers, and they generate a significant portion of Inderes’ current revenue), work roughly ~99% of the time, and even in analysis, everything else usually works, except for this variance in recommendations. It’s rare for the company’s business to be misunderstood; instead, errors relate to forecasting its future and determining its fair value (which, unfortunately, in my opinion, is often not so much fair value determination but rather pricing the stock 12 months out).
Naturally, investors also realize that in analysis, a 51% hit rate corresponds to 99.9% accuracy in other industries. That’s why, on the other hand, openly admitting mistakes and addressing them are key to building trust with the community.
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### Author:  [@Yksityinen\_sijoittaj](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Yksityinen_sijoittaj)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 7:06am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/331 "2023-05-19T07:06:51Z")
Duell
Recommendation: Reduce
Target price: 1.60 EUR
Share price: 1.50 EUR
The recommendation change can already be found in the morning report.
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### Author:  [@Perttu\_Hamalainen](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Perttu_Hamalainen)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 7:45am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/332 "2023-05-19T07:45:23Z")
By the end, it was such an amateurish mess that it looked like EVU’s C-juniors had run riot in the rink. The guys were just that exhausted.
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### Author:  [@vanha\_Qfwfq](https://forum.inderes.com/u/vanha_Qfwfq)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 7:52am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/333 "2023-05-19T07:52:41Z")
Thank you @Sijoittaja-alokas for another interesting interview. And of course, thanks to the interviewee as well.
As per my usual habit, I’ll comment on the minor details.
> [@Sijoittaja-alokas](#):
>
> Another piece of old wisdom that affects my investing, at least subconsciously, is to ”invest in stocks at most a percentage that is one hundred minus your age”.
As a micro-investor, I don’t let that wisdom influence my own allocation one bit; it’s meant for larger portfolios and perhaps especially for other countries where investments = pension. Here, the earnings-related pension system has taken care of diversification into bonds, real estate, and the like. That will provide the basic livelihood in retirement; the purpose of my own modest investment activities is to add a bit of luxury on top of that. If a high equity weight backfires in the form of a massive bear market, the only consequence for me will be having to switch from champagne to crémant, figuratively speaking.
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### Author:  [@Kunhalvallasaa](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kunhalvallasaa)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 8:12am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/334 "2023-05-19T08:12:53Z")
> [@enska](#):
>
> More Sampo. Interested in the Mandatum spin-off and dividends.
Didn’t the dividend already go ex-dividend on Wednesday? Of course, new ones will be paid in spring -24..?
Mandatum is an interesting case, it’s been a bit of a prisoner of Sampo…
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### Author:  [@jessuro](https://forum.inderes.com/u/jessuro)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 8:14am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/335 "2023-05-19T08:14:34Z")
Apparently, some potential extra dividend might still be coming this year.. I might be wrong though.
EDIT: It seems no such decision has been made after all, I just recall seeing some speculation about it somewhere..
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### Author:  [@enska](https://forum.inderes.com/u/enska)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 8:19am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/336 "2023-05-19T08:19:07Z")
I thought it went ex-dividend today. That’s why I bought the dip. And I don’t usually buy stocks just for that year’s dividend.
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### Author:  [@Kunhalvallasaa](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Kunhalvallasaa)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 8:20am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/337 "2023-05-19T08:20:27Z")
Maybe the 51% figure you used is figurative, but an analysis really should have a better hit rate than 51%…
And of course, that is the case with Inderes… But Duell is a shipwreck. I wonder if the company management’s communication has misled the analysts as well?
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### Author:  [@Perttu\_Hamalainen](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Perttu_Hamalainen)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 8:23am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/338 "2023-05-19T08:23:29Z")
> [@enska](#):
>
> I thought it went ex-dividend today. That’s why I bought the dip. And I don’t usually buy stocks just for that year’s dividend.
It went ex-dividend today. filling the character count…
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### Author:  [@enska](https://forum.inderes.com/u/enska)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 8:25am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/339 "2023-05-19T08:25:08Z")
Perhaps Duell’s weak performance is simply a consequence of a long-term trend where young people are no longer as interested in noisy motorized vehicles as they were back in the 80s and 90s (and naturally, even before then). They don’t necessarily want a moped or to get a driver’s license anymore. Urbanization and public transport also play a role. As I understand it, boating and fishing are also becoming pastimes for fewer and fewer people. The pandemic was an exception in this regard, but now we are returning to normal.
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### Author:  [@Gunther](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Gunther)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 9:07am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/340 "2023-05-19T09:07:00Z")
> [@Kunhalvallasaa](#):
>
> Mandatum is an interesting case; it has been a bit of a prisoner of Sampo…
If such an impression has been created—that it was a prisoner and will explode into growth once released—then the marketing communication has been very successful.
It’s just a pity that Nalle (Björn Wahlroos) seemed to blurt out at the AGM that there were no buyers, or something to that effect. There were hours of video from the AGM on Sampo’s website, and I tried to browse through to find that part, but couldn’t find it.
It would be nice to hear that comment for myself and make my own interpretation of it.
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### Author:  [@Deep\_Value](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Deep_Value)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 9:47am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/341 "2023-05-19T09:47:02Z")
> [@III21](#):
>
> Since there is a lot of speculation here now about these management purchases and Pajuharju is also involved, I assume people still remember those Harvia management purchases at the share price level of over 50 euros? Not that history necessarily repeats itself. However, management purchases are no guarantee of a rosy future either. There can be several reasons for these “mass purchases” by management.
If you’re picking stocks, the underlying assumption is that the markets are not perfectly efficient all the time, and price and value do not necessarily always go hand in hand. If an insider could determine their company’s value reasonably well, wouldn’t it be evidence of this inefficiency if the price moved in completely the wrong direction after the purchase?
It’s amusing that a price drop after insider purchases is often used as some kind of proof of incorrect valuation or ignorance, while at the same time the price given by the market is considered completely correct; yet one still picks stocks from those same inefficient markets.
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### Author:  [@H4nk3y](https://forum.inderes.com/u/H4nk3y)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 10:00am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/342 "2023-05-19T10:00:31Z")
> [@Wallet\_Nahlroos](#):
>
> **Japan, a value investor’s buy… travel destination**
>
> Aisatsu!
>
> I just wanted to drop by the lounge to say a quick hello and bring the good news of travel from here in the land of the rising sun. As the title says, Japan is not _necessarily_ an expensive travel destination.
>
> We’re staying at the Super Hotel chain again this time. A night cost €56 and this includes breakfast as well as an open bar in the evening.
Have a great trip! 🕶 Which city are you in now? I’m definitely interested in visiting Japan, as I haven’t been there yet.
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### Author:  [@EDCE25](https://forum.inderes.com/u/EDCE25)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 10:36am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/343 "2023-05-19T10:36:09Z")
Now that the certificate-based admission results for medical fields are out, are there any others here who got in?
I got into dentistry in Kuopio myself 😃
Once I get my student loan, I’ll probably put all of it into the market.
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### Author:  [@Sfinski](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sfinski)
#### Post date: [May 19, 2023, 10:37am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-7/40486/344 "2023-05-19T10:37:21Z")
Comment sections are always the best.
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbsU5CCnqDc)
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