Inderes Coffee Room (Part 3)

Thanks for the info :+1:

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Absolutely, go for it :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:
There seem to be several artists here. I suggest we hold a vote, and the winning picture gets to adorn @Gasparov’s rear end.

Is this what they mean by investor community, the one everyone always talks about :thinking:

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Replying here as it has nothing to do with forests.

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikaelrautanen/status/1450133861686550528
https://mobile.twitter.com/mikaelrautanen/status/1450134343750496259

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Thanks for the update! So, it would be a good place for a small test batch of Oxford Lane on OP.

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I myself don’t believe that Inderes would ever agree to pay someone to do analyses of them. Mikael Rautanen is a shrewd man and knows that results will speak for themselves in the long run.

Well, I was wrong :slight_smile: . Not about Mikael being smart and shrewd, but about buying external analysis services. In a way, it is justified if there are big and ambitious growth strategies in the works
 and there’s an intention to raise additional funds for their implementation in the future.

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Yay! :smiley:

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This!! @Verneri_Pulkkinen @Petri_Kajaani

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I’m not participating in the tattoo competition, because @Torniojaws and @Parsa did something I can’t. But here’s a snapshot from the live stream. I apologize to everyone in advance, especially to @Petri_Kajaani, @Saapasjalkakissa, Mr. @Verneri_Pulkkinen, and Harvia. :harviaraketti: :grinning:

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and Harvia’s new intraday high for the day is exactly 58.50 euros. Now we’ll see if the opening of the US stock market brings another gear to the day’s rally and if we’ll re-test that level.

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@Hammaskeiju First, you naturally click Reply > Copy the message (I clicked “copy link” on your username) > navigate to the correct thread, just paste it into the message field and write your answer!

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Congratulations to Harvia for the strong results, but amidst all the euphoria, it’s good to remember that some rather authoritative sources have recently stated that bonds, the housing market, and stocks have never simultaneously been as expensive as they are now. We are seeing excesses of such magnitude that there is no longer any historical comparison. For example, Tesla at 1200 billion. The mood is such that it is unlikely to withstand, for example, a year of sideways movement. It’s a risky time to buy growth stocks whose possible future returns are not discounted in a normal way nor priced with normal safety margins.

I’m opening Fjodor Kuplajevski’s (Fjodor Kuplajevski) work “The Bubble and the Punishment” and pouring some bubbly into a glass.

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I don’t know if this belongs here, but I think it would be a good idea to create separate threads for the “Just bought/sold” thread, divided by continent/country. For example, “Just bought/sold” thread (Nordic countries) or “Just bought/sold” thread (North America), etc. The current thread gets an insane number of messages, and this is already the third thread. These could offer decentralization and ideas from specific regions or sectors, making it easier to find potential stocks to research.

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Haven’t the professionals been talking about a bubble for many years now? No one knows when it will pop. It could be that the growth continues for the next 10 years, or it could be that next Monday we’ll see the bubble burst. Buying growth stocks has been risky in terms of numbers for a long time, but they have still performed relatively well.

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Is this the one where SEC’s Porfiri pressures EV billionaire Raskolnikov until he can no longer stand the pressure because he thinks Porfiri is reading him like an open book? Kuplajevski (Kuplajevski) certainly describes well how markets drift into a bubble until the pressures become too great. An absolute classic of investment literature.

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Aah Harvia, what have you done? It wasn’t long ago that you weren’t even wanted on the market for 46 euros, but now that you’ve had a “normal” performance for Harvia, suddenly everyone wants to pay 58 euros apiece for you. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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Good idea, but this kind of division would require familiarizing oneself with the investment target to the extent of knowing which market the stock is listed on. This is probably too high a demand in the prevailing investment culture :slight_smile:

Another option would be to divide the “I bought/sold” thread into two parts as follows:

  1. Bought/sold (Hyzon)
  2. Bought/sold (other than Hyzon)

This division would result in two roughly equally active threads, and the transaction reporter would not be required to have (too) in-depth knowledge of the investment target :slight_smile:

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It’s true that after several years of a bull market, there are always parties who start loosely talking about a bubble merely because valuations are quite high, even if market sentiment is otherwise quite normal. According to the other extreme, one can simply never talk about a bubble until it has been confirmed to have burst – before that, it’s impossible to know if it’s a bubble. In 1989 in Japan, according to this school of thought, it couldn’t be stated that real estate was in a bubble when the emperor’s palace grounds in Tokyo were more valuable than all the land in California.

I’m somewhere in between these. In my opinion, in January 2020, it was unfounded to talk about a bubble, for example, in the US, because even though there had been 11 years of growth and the market was expensive, there was no speculative mania. There wasn’t a huge amount of completely new, investment-ignorant people doing absurd things with debt leverage. SPACs were practically non-existent. IPOs were moderate in number. Tesla’s market value was 90 billion. The economy looked strong and provided some support for optimism.

Now everything is completely different, which is why I dare to talk about a bubble now. One can reasonably disagree with this, as there is no exact definition.

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I never questioned the existence of a bubble; I was mostly trying to make the point that no one can know when it will burst. I completely agree with you on the euphoria. Over the last year, friends who never talked about investing have suddenly started “trading,” etc.
But my main point was precisely that no one can know when the bubble will burst.

And as someone relatively young, I gladly welcome a bubble bursting; then I can buy cheaper :slight_smile:

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Thinking about bubbles is a nice and useful pastime; it forces you to challenge your own views and think about things from a broader perspective. Only in retrospect do we see what bubbles there were, but one can always guess. A couple of my own thoughts:

  • There isn’t one big bubble, but rather some parts of the market where valuation levels and investor expectations are much higher than usual.
  • There are companies where investors are willing to pay a hefty price today based on the assumption that the company will dominate its industry in the long term. Current market shares, profitability, etc., have little significance in the company’s valuation.
  • Related to the above, when market value can no longer be reasonably justified by traditional metrics, new justifications and metrics are sought to explain the high valuations.
  • The importance of competition blurs; in a trendy industry, far too many companies are simultaneously priced as the future leader of the entire industry, with prices remaining high.
  • As share prices rise, investors’ return expectations increase, even though by all logic they should decrease due to higher purchase prices. “Old-fashioned” annual returns of 7-10% start to feel very modest as prices soar towards the sky.

So, my gut feeling is that there are companies and “themes” where expectations are no longer from this planet. These are such that if absolutely everything goes perfectly and there is strong growth for the next 10 years, the shares will retain their value (note: they won’t inherently produce anything above inflation*). If things don’t go perfectly, they will come down hard and fast.

It’s good to remember that even a good company can be a terrible investment if you pay an astronomical price for it. Many of the companies in the dot-com bubble of the 2000s were (and are) high-quality companies, but bought at the peak of the bubble, investors had to wait over a decade just to break even.

Having experienced that bubble, I could say that there are similar feelings and “buzz” in the air now as there were back then. There’s a lot of similarity. But this is indeed just an opinion :smiley:

*i.e., if the stock price already discounts today the projected great success story of the next 10 years, the price will not rise with the success story because that story is already priced into the stock. Only by exceeding the projected success story would the price rise.

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