Inderes Coffee Room (Part 3)

Would there be a good shorting product for QT? Still time..

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Stocktwits knows, “excellent in-depth analysis”. Or is this one of the forum members :smiley:

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Will QT’s owners sleep well tonight too? We’ll see soon enough :face_with_hand_over_mouth: :rocket:

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Adventures of a Novice Investor: Case Modulight Q3/2021. The first quarterly report for a stock in my portfolio, I already pondered yesterday whether to trade at the open. I missed out on quick money, but I’m ultimately happy that I made the decision for the right reason.

When the price stalled briefly after the open, slightly below yesterday’s close, my finger was on the sell button at 17.35, but I started to hesitate enough that I decided not to do anything. Then I watched in agony as it went below -13%, realizing I missed out on profit, and then shortly after, the price rose back to its original level :sweat_smile:

However, the amounts are still quite small in absolute terms, so I’m taking this as a valuable lesson in patience. My beginner’s mistake here was that I still hoped the price would rise at the open, and I hadn’t sufficiently planned what to do if it opened lower.

I ultimately made the decision based on not being sure enough what would happen next, so I trust that the stock selection was well-justified originally, and we will eventually end up with a profit. At least for now, the price seems to be at ATH, which certainly lightens my mood :grin:

Oh, and Konecranes is also in my portfolio, also didn’t trade that :upside_down_face:

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Good luck to @Erkki_Vesola, a five-company release day is no small feat. :grinning:

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If you haven’t experienced -50% daily drops, you clearly have too safe stocks in your portfolio :grin: Add a couple of techno-hydrogen boom-tsh-booms or bio-pharmas to your portfolio for some excitement in life :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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Qt’s numbers were a disappointment. It’s incomprehensible that the stock market is only showing -3%.

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No tips came in :wink:

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I’m guessing it’s a forum member, even though the name is Italian. I’ve seen the same guy posting on Reddit in the Hyzon discussion forum around the same time some news was posted in the Hyzon thread. Even back then I was thinking this must be an Inderes user :grin:

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As I get older, my eyes tend to get tired during the day, and even light reading glasses don’t always help. I was looking at new posts on the forum and wondered about the thread “Uponor - a kick in the balls.” But never mind that, I might have misread it, but I was still right. :thinking:

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Everything is so relative. In my opinion, it hit expectations quite well and the story continues. The growth coefficient is bound to fluctuate from one quarter to another, and if the market has priced the stock before the earnings report assuming that growth will naturally accelerate or at least continue at the same pace, then these kinds of dips in the share price curve will occur. For me, this earnings report is of the “no action” type. I’m staying in. If there’s enough capitulation in the coming days to genuinely push it to ridiculous prices (let’s say <140e), then I’ll have to reluctantly increase my overweight position.

With hindsight, one can always lament how a great trading opportunity was missed again and how it was perfectly clear that the stock had once again gotten too far ahead of itself, but it’s not that clear - if that fifth ace had been pulled from the sleeve, the board could show 190e+ and you’d be on the sidelines whining that it’s too expensive and why did I sell.

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Only Tecnotree, Marimekko, or Kamux can save the portfolio from a complete “catastrophe” (still +28% YTD) compared to the index :grimacing:. Marimekko also has such high expectations based on its share price that it’s rip (rest in peace). Tecnotree is unlikely to perform poorly, and not much is expected from Kamux based on its share price. Evo, Kindred, Carasent, and now Qt have all flushed a percentage of the portfolio down the toilet on earnings day. However, I refuse to sell any more Qt, as I already lightened my position three times in the fall (before it rose above €160) :rofl:

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Mood in the portfolio today :upside_down_face:

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I think Qt’s numbers were pretty good, but it was clear as soon as the results were released at 3:00 PM that the stock would tank. Market expectations for all these growth monsters have been higher than analysts’ expectations for some time, and now Qt even fell short of analysts’ forecasts (revenue, which is the most essential).

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But only concerning the consensus, it hit Inderes’ forecasts for revenue quite accurately, to which I give more weight than the consensus at this point. The market, of course, does what it does and is always right :smiley:

The problem, of course, is that forecasts must be trampled or else a red bar will appear and eat into it, because forecasts must, of course, be beaten. In a way, the whole thing is a bit skewed, as share prices generally overshoot before earnings reports, so even a slight beat can be rewarded with a significant dip, not to mention “just” hitting the forecasts.

Varelius probably will, at least. Even though the stock took a bit of a hit from the results, he would still be eligible for a 15 million bonus pool at the current share price.

Was Mikael already allowed to sell his holdings in the company, since he is no longer officially an analyst, or do all Inderes employees have to trade according to recommendations?

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And Inderes’ 12-month target is 160 euros. So it’s clear that if the price goes above 170 euros, it will crash at those figures.

In the big picture, nothing has changed; it’s still the same quality company, and the train keeps chugging along!

EDIT: @Antti_Luiro is probably rubbing his hands together, trying to keep a positive recommendation at these prices :smiley:

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I’m more concerned about the -33% share price drop predicted by the former QT analyst!?!?

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MasseForum Noble

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107 :heart:

The text mentioned above from the “I bought-I sold” thread from 1 day ago is one of those forum delicacy moments mentioned by @timontti: Uncle Masse flagged with 107 likes = absolutely must open!!! :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

Uncle Masse, FA, Happy reading :grin: :grin:

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Good @Masse. Sometimes you have to roll the profits onto the beach and catch something other than cod for a change.

I went and liked it, so there are more hearts now.

Today my own forzas -10 k€. Robots are driving down a cent/5 min. And still quite steadily :heart:

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