# Inderes Coffee Room (Part 3)
**URL:** https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214
**Category:** Sijoittaminen
**Created:** [September 2, 2021, 5:13pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214 "2021-09-02T17:13:42Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 210
### Author:  [@timontti](https://forum.inderes.com/u/timontti)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 4:30am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4350 "2021-10-26T04:30:31Z")
[https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1452723282474536962?t=kUcJ6ssZD0ZKFNjUxo\_QEw&s=19](https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1452723282474536962?t=kUcJ6ssZD0ZKFNjUxo_QEw&s=19)
Again…
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### Author:  [@Sisu1](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sisu1)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 4:56am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4351 "2021-10-26T04:56:38Z")
Michael Burry has apparently gotten a new title 😄
However, Burry took short positions in Q1/Q2 and, to my knowledge, closed them a long time ago, so he probably ended up with a profit. This is, of course, my own deduction based on the stock’s historical performance.
Perhaps the tweeter is too eagerly looking for a cause-and-effect relationship 🤔
Hasn’t Burry made Twitter exits and then comebacks quite often?
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### Author:  [@Sambadi](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sambadi)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 5:00am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4352 "2021-10-26T05:00:47Z")
> [@Sisu1](#):
>
> Hasn’t Burry made a Twitter exit and then a comeback quite often?
Yes. It’s an annoying habit to comment on something on Twitter and then delete the whole account within a day or two. He would be an interesting person to follow, but I only get to follow him through traditional media.
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### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 5:09am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4353 "2021-10-26T05:09:27Z")
Verneri was interviewed by Yle. 🕶
“_In the bubble, the question is, what is the favorite investment service Inderes? Is it media, a clan, or perhaps just a stock exchange company? To its “community” or users, Inderes is a place where investment information is available in various forms, and where one can also invest in investing. For stock exchange companies, it is a firm from which they can buy analyses and, for example, roasts, meaning visibility. Inderes pledges independence and trust - isn’t there a contradiction here? Community builder Verneri Pulkkinen clarifies Inderes’ logic. Jani and Aurora also dive into Twitch, which offers not only game streams but also tractor rides, sleeping, and politics. Where is Finland’s Hasan Piker? Correction: Inderes’ CEO’s name is Mikael Rautanen, not Mikael Rautiainen, as stated in the episode. Jaksomedia produced the podcast for Yle._”
> **[S2, A11: Koko rahalla näkyvyyttä ja kriittisyyttä yritykselleni, kiitos! | Kupla](https://arenan.yle.fi/1-50991473)**
>
> Kuplassa yritetään selvittää, mikä on suosittu sijoituspalvelu Inderes. Onko se media, klaani vai kenties pelkkä pörssiyhtiö? "Yhteisölleen" eli käyttäjilleen Inderes on paikka, jossa tarjotaan sijoitustietoa eri muodoissa ja jossa voi myös...
Listen right away! 🙂 If you want to skip to the right part, the chatter begins at 16 minutes. 🕶
PS Recommendation or rather a command - listen! Well done @Verneri_Pulkkinen ! 🥳 🙂
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### Author:  [@musa\_2](https://forum.inderes.com/u/musa_2)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 5:43am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4354 "2021-10-26T05:43:26Z")
> [@musa\_2](#):
>
> U.S. nominal GDP has roughly doubled since 2000. Tesla’s market cap today is almost double Cisco’s at its peak in 2000.
At the extreme climax of the tech bubble, Cisco made an impressive final sprint that briefly made it the world’s largest company by market cap.
Similarities and differences between Cisco in March 2000 vs. Tesla today:
Similarities:
- The latest business development numbers are such that extrapolating them far enough yields enormous figures.
- Price-to-sales valuation and the sales growth gradient have been in the same ballpark recently.
- Market cap / U.S. GDP in the same range.
- The thought processes behind the bull arguments are very similar.
Differences:
- Cisco was a tamer case in the sense that the stock price increase towards the peak was much more gradual, and the business development figures were much more credible over a longer period than Tesla’s are now.
- Perhaps there were hopes that Cisco’s industry was not as brutally difficult as the car business.
- Cisco did not have a cult around it; instead, there was more normal trend extrapolation and speculation (regarding familiarity bias, perhaps consumer product manufacturer RCA from 1929 is a better comparison for Tesla than b2b Cisco in 2000).
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### Author:  [@Alfons\_Knautmauer](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Alfons_Knautmauer)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 5:47am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4355 "2021-10-26T05:47:15Z")
I haven’t delved too deeply into Cisco in 2000, but as I understand it, the valuation at that time was driven precisely by the countless internet companies that emerged from the tech bubble, with all sorts of different business ideas. These countless companies were all thought to be Cisco’s customers, and from these, a constantly growing, enormous market was then extrapolated.
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### Author:  [@musa\_2](https://forum.inderes.com/u/musa_2)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 5:50am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4356 "2021-10-26T05:50:06Z")
Exactly!
Here we have a model for Tesla’s stock if everything goes really well, like it did for Cisco, meaning Tesla is in a dominant position 20 years from now.
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### Author:  [@Sisu1](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sisu1)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 5:54am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4357 "2021-10-26T05:54:30Z")
I haven’t commented on Tesla discussions before, but isn’t that a fitting statement, and isn’t the situation pretty much the same now?
> These countless companies were all thought to be Cisco customers, and from these, a continuously growing, massive market was extrapolated.
Now, do we just assume that every other car in the world will be a Tesla?
Or a similar number?
P.S. I haven’t looked into Tesla’s numbers in detail.
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### Author:  [@Geologiopiskelija](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Geologiopiskelija)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:01am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4358 "2021-10-26T06:01:22Z")
It seems Bank of America is completely clueless, or this is the second time they’ve initiated coverage with an almost absurd “reduce” recommendation just so they can add to their positions cheaply 🤔😃. I don’t know about Nokia, but Embracer is a screaming Buy at these prices
> **[Embracer Group AB - One group to implode them all](https://forum.inderes.com/t/embracer-group-ab/9065/560?u=geologiopiskelija)**
>
> Embracer group konsernilla on kattava luettelo pelejä (190+ IP) joista tunnetuimpia Saints Row, Goat Simulator, Dead Island, Darksiders, Metro, MX vs ATV, TimeSplitters, Satisfactory, Wreckfest ja Z World War.
> Mitä ajat…
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### Author:  [@Mututuntuma](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Mututuntuma)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:07am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4359 "2021-10-26T06:07:47Z")
Ancient man browses the What’s in your portfolio thread.
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### Author:  [@tusinakassa](https://forum.inderes.com/u/tusinakassa)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:11am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4360 "2021-10-26T06:11:23Z")
Cisco’s stock is a delicious comparison in that it actually delivered on its promises. After the dot-com bubble, it has been and still is one of the world’s largest manufacturers of network equipment, and the brand enjoys high esteem. Still, those who bought the stock at the peak of the dot-com bubble are still at a loss.
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### Author:  [@SijoitusSeppo](https://forum.inderes.com/u/SijoitusSeppo)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:28am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4361 "2021-10-26T06:28:55Z")
Here’s Cisco’s quarterly revenue, which can be compared to its stock price. Growth was on an exponential curve from about 1998-2001, but when it came down from there and returned to “only” linear growth, the impact on the stock price was really ugly. This is the risk that many investors in these “world conquerors” don’t seem to fully grasp.
EDIT: It’s somewhat ironic that only when growth stopped around 2015 did the stock price stop languishing and has risen somewhat. 😃
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### Author:  [@musa\_2](https://forum.inderes.com/u/musa_2)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:44am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4362 "2021-10-26T06:44:19Z")
Another good set, thank you!
This also made me think that if someone happens to have Qt in their portfolio with a large weight, today is another good opportunity for them to consider different scenarios:
- exponential growth, linear growth, no growth, negative growth (if technology leadership is lost)
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### Author:  [@Sisu1](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sisu1)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:44am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4363 "2021-10-26T06:44:51Z")
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### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 6:49am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4364 "2021-10-26T06:49:21Z")
> [@III21](#):
>
> It’s interesting, by the way, that the rare times when things on this forum really threaten to get out of hand, it happens specifically in the foreign stock threads for which Inderes has no coverage (e.g., Tesla, Hyzon, and Smart Eye). Of course, there are many other reasons why these companies arouse such strong emotions, but I would argue that if these companies were under coverage, things would calm down a bit in those threads too. Clearly, there would be a need for a real analyst’s analysis, so that things wouldn’t devolve into a “rival forum analyst” sword fight.
I already envisioned a kind of horror scenario if Hyzon came under Inderes’ coverage. I tried to illustrate our worst nightmare:
The example is a company called Hyzon **i** , which doesn’t even exist. @Sauli_Vilen would get a “competitor.”
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### Author:  [@eizbee](https://forum.inderes.com/u/eizbee)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 7:06am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4365 "2021-10-26T07:06:50Z")
A lot has been written about Tesla in the Coffee Room since the last earnings report. I have a question for the writers: what would happen if Elon Musk were to die, for example, in a plane crash? What would be Tesla’s fate initially and in the future?
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### Author:  [@jps](https://forum.inderes.com/u/jps)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 7:14am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4366 "2021-10-26T07:14:22Z")
Perhaps we could get an “Elvis lives” type of reaction.
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### Author:  [@Gadus](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Gadus)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 7:56am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4367 "2021-10-26T07:56:51Z")
Patience is indeed a virtue when it comes to investing. After all, Microsoft’s earnings growth was at a good level even before the surge in recent years, but it still took about 15 years to reach its old peaks.
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### Author:  [@Wappie](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Wappie)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 7:57am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4368 "2021-10-26T07:57:37Z")
Speculating in company-specific threads is pointless, so I’ll speculate here instead…
I have a feeling that we’ve started the last rally before a longer bear market. We might still see wild hype-driven surges as even the last “Salkkarit” fans are drawn into the market. At the same time, more experienced investors will start protecting their capital and gradually, quietly exiting the market. I hope I’m wrong, because for a friend of mine who is all-in on a hype stock, a crash would be devastating.
This madness could certainly just continue and continue, but for the first time, I feel like I’m no longer buying tightly priced stocks for my “index-beating portfolio” on the OST (share savings account). Fortunately, I have monthly savings ETFs and can continue buying without caring about anything.
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### Author:  [@Datamonni](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Datamonni)
#### Post date: [October 26, 2021, 8:23am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-3/22214/4369 "2021-10-26T08:23:34Z")
A collapse might be coming. It has been carved here that the collapse will come when it is least expected.
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