Inderes Coffee Room (Part 11)

Don’t ruin this for me!! I thought that insider purchase of about €160 was just some grandchild starting a hobby in grandpa’s firm or something like that. :grin:

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@Rikaskoyha

Somehow these quotes are coming out a bit strangely… oh well, let them be since I can’t get it to work.

quote="Rikaskoyha, post:7475, topic:52688, full:true"

Purchase for the company account:

Flowers Foods (FLO) @ $15.5

Dull and gray, I believe it will continue to be a good dividend payer (+6.4%), with a valuation driven unreasonably low. The attempt to hit the bottom surely failed, so I’ll consider adding more if it drops even further :smirk:

/quote

Flowers Foods, which I haven’t bought for myself but is on my extensive watchlist, released its own report. Today might be a good opportunity to lower the average price if one wishes to do so. You would think the business would be quite steady, but there is a surprising amount of weakness in the bread business.

Q4 actually wasn’t that bad. Revenue growth of 11%. Net result, on the other hand, was a catastrophe in light of the numbers. It dipped into a loss of $67.1M. However, this was affected by a $136M impairment on intangibles. Usually, the market tends to panic occasionally quite unnecessarily over things like this. They don’t affect cash flows, and no money leaves the coffers. Adjusted net profit was basically the same as a year ago, $45.8M (-1.5%). My own interpretation is that it’s quite a good report, but the guidance…

For this year, revenue is expected to be roughly the same, but a clear drop in adjusted EPS is expected to a range of EPS $0.8-$0.9, while the 2025 figure was $1.09. The drop to the midpoint of the 2026 guidance is indeed a sharp 22%.

Now pre-market shows -4.5% for Flowers Foods. That seems mild enough that it wouldn’t excite me. If panic strikes, the price could come down quite a bit. Flowers Foods operates with a large debt load. That, combined with weak guidance, is a pretty toxic cocktail and it’s possible the movements could be sharp. There are things like Adobe etc. available on the market for only slightly more expensive, and these would feel like better choices than some bakery shop, but I put in a crash bid at $7.65 regardless, which would mean about a 1/3 cut from yesterday’s close. At that price, the bakery shop would be picked up with its debt load at a P/E of 9 based on the midpoint of the guidance range (EPS 0.85). The dividend would be 12.9% at that price (until it’s cut smaller → a big risk, but at a low price maybe it’s worth taking). Unlikely to hit today, as the price is clearly higher than what I’m willing to pay.

Edit: 5:40 PM Interestingly, the stock price didn’t seem to want to go down. It even went green for a moment. Oh, what a moment that was for someone to take an exit. Now the price is around -9.5%. Still not even close to something that would get my excitement rising. It looks like we’re unlikely to get a sharp crash today. Seems more like a slow slide lower. Maybe in 3-6 months we’ll be closer to my current target price. By then, however, we’ll have received new reports again that could change my feeling to be more negative, and I wouldn’t be interested at that price anymore.

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Same here! I’m absolutely sure that’s exactly how it is, but it shouldn’t be said out loud so the meme doesn’t go to waste :weary_face:

Well, onto the next one soon

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This is something I’ve been thinking about for years and years regarding investing. Often, if you’ve made an investment mistake, you can pick out things in hindsight that would have at least been possible to do differently. Maybe you left too little margin of safety, maybe you believed management’s talk or analyst forecasts too much, maybe you didn’t understand that tightening competition would collapse results as badly as it did, etc., etc.
One has to understand that you can’t know everything in advance, and randomness also plays a big role in many things.
Still, even in hindsight, you often find yourself wondering how you should have known you were falling into a real “loser trap” (turska-ansa), or conversely, if you sell a stock at price X, that you could have sold it at 3X years later :man_shrugging:

The day before yesterday, I was watching Olympic hockey, and after the Lions lost, a reporter interviewed the players. The mood was naturally somber after the loss, but the reporter asked three players, in slightly different words, what was learned from this and what will be changed going forward. Every player’s response was, “we’ll learn from this” :exclamation_question_mark: No one could name a single thing that was done wrong and what they thought should be changed.
They got hammered and don’t know why, but “we’ll learn from it.”

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No one dares to say anymore that we’re moving forward. Bing videos

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Is earnings growth and positive news starting to gradually catch on in Helsinki’s small/mid-caps too?

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Was this message meant for the Investment Meme Thread?

Characterscharacters.

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Since HKFoods doesn’t attract a massive following, I’ll share a tip here in the “coffee room” about the finest earnings webcasts on the stock exchange.

This is likely the only company on the exchange where the CFO’s presentation includes a walkthrough of new grilling products ahead of summer, winter novelties in the fall, and now a wide range of new items from grain-fed pork to nuggets and mashed potatoes.

This is definitely the Cadillac of earnings webcasts, and I always look forward to it. Adding a picture and a link at the end: HKFoods Oyj, Webcast, Q4'25 - Inderes

Happy Friday to everyone!

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I’ve been educating myself on physics lately. Physics doesn’t actually make any sense. I mean, I’ve also dabbled in history, IT, biology, etc. There’s some logic to those, but not in physics. Here are a few examples.

There are 2 trillion galaxies in the universe. You read that right: not millions, not billions, but trillions. There are 8 billion people on Earth. For every person, there are about 250 galaxies.

A black hole is so dense that if Earth were just as dense, its diameter would be about 1 cm. You would be in there, I would be in there, @Sijoittaja-alokas, your car, Donald Trump, etc.

However, a black hole isn’t the “final solution”—instead, they eventually disappear because they lose matter through Hawking radiation. Even light can’t escape a black hole, yet they still evaporate into something.

When you start thinking about those things, my head starts spinning. Better to think about than the Roman Empire.

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The theory of relativity and some simple quantum mechanics topics are truly fascinating, such as the double-slit experiment. Stephen Hawking’s A Brief History of Time is an excellent and as layman-friendly a book on the subject as possible – it’s worth checking out if you haven’t read it yet.

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I’m a black hole of charisma. :sweat_smile: Charisma vanishes the more I speak. :grimacing:

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You can call there too. By phone at 020 770 6539

  • Shareholder ownership information on a company-by-company basis
  • When calling, provide:
  1. Company name
  2. Shareholder’s name and address or municipality
  • Service open on business days 9 am–2 pm
  • Suitable for everyone who needs information on the holdings of a specific shareholder in companies within the book-entry system.

I still agree it’s a total failure. That should be freely browseable by everyone online.

Who will create an AI agent that calls Euroclear every day and asks for all the top 100 owners of every listed company? They are required to give that information at Euroclear, even if the caller is an AI.

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Has anyone ever considered that plastic bags in grocery stores are starting to become investment assets? Next time, check how much a single plastic bag costs. The price is actually around €0.50. A year ago it was something like €0.39, and 20 years ago maybe €0.10, etc. A couple of times at the checkout, I’ve jokingly mentioned that these bags are starting to be investment material.

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I am actually just setting up a new IlkkaShares Physical Plastic Bags UCITS ETF! I am currently negotiating the acquisition of a bank vault that meets the highest security standards for storing the bags. :money_bag: (that plastic bag in the emoji naturally contains more plastic bags inside of it)

Since both the bags in the vault and the recurring price increases are eternal, investors can expect low-risk and high returns that correlate only minimally with other asset classes.

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A brilliantly crazy idea! More of this! Let’s get Finland rising. Plastic bags won’t let us down!

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quote="Reload, post:851, topic:9672"

says that they want some steady years first after all the wars and cocoa price hikes, so the figures look good for the listing.

/quote

So they get to cash in on the listing? Why isn’t that quote working?

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I heard a claim a long time ago that the plastic bag is by far the product with the best profit margin in the grocery trade. Personally, however, I think it’s good for environmental reasons that plastic bags are priced in a way that encourages the use of reusable bags. Once you get used to always bringing your own shopping bags to the store, the very thought of buying a new plastic bag on every shopping trip soon starts to feel like a moronic waste. And when you visit, say, Berlin, you have to be prepared for the fact that you can’t even get a plastic bag at Lidl.

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I’ve been a reusable bag user for a long time now.
That is, if I remember to bring it along.

I’ve also tried keeping a folded plastic bag in my pocket.
I tend to forget to do that as well.

It’s been hard for me to make it a habit.

A scatterbrain through and through.

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I carry a backpack every day; it serves the purpose of a plastic bag, a reusable bag, and even a car trunk all year round. I also keep a plastic bag from Citymarket (Cittari) in the backpack just in case the amount of groceries exceeds the backpack’s capacity. Even my bike helmet fits nicely in the backpack, so that’s another advantage. It has been a functional solution for my entire adult life, so I’m sure it’ll work for the rest of my life too.

Have a great Saturday, everyone!

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With my morning eyes, I misread it as shampoo

It made the rest of the sentence interesting :smiley:

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