Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 10)

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Ilkka Sinervä has written an article about Eka Pohjola, quoting Hannu Angervuo.

More than three years ago, new stock market listings became a barrel of hope, especially for small investors.

Almost ten years ago, the Helsinki Stock Exchange created a new First North Finland marketplace, which was supposed to develop into a successful marketplace for small growth-oriented companies, similar to the Stockholm Stock Exchange.

However, investors’ hopes did not materialize; instead, it plunged into the abyss.

“For investors, only about three billion of the First North list’s highest combined market value of approximately eight billion has computationally remained, meaning five billion euros have evaporated into thin air in three years as a result of the share price decline,” states Hannu Angervuo, a stock market veteran in asset management, in his report.

The estimated losses of approximately five billion correspond to almost the 5.4 billion euro stock market value of the engineering group Valmet.

First Northin yhtiöiden arvosta kadonnut jo viiden miljardin potti

[TomPettynyt]

@Marco

From spring to mid-summer, I had a large ownership in Incap, which I lightened to 1/4 at +30% profit before the profit warning. I removed the rest at about 10% profit.

A larger block changed hands… only 23 potential sellers, but naturally more buyers.

92,963 units changed hands at a unit price of 9.89 (printed: 2.9. at 3:25 PM)

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Here are the S&P 500’s historical monthly returns.

https://x.com/JesseCohenInv/status/1962870639301161454

[TomPettynyt]

One stock that has interested me for a long time, Prysmian, but I haven’t had money and I’m such a damn wuss that I refuse to invest with debt (i.e., I’m willing to compromise on my small returns), and when it dropped to around 40 euros in early April, I wistfully watched a good buying opportunity from the sidelines. The long preamble as to why I’m writing about this is because it caught my eye when Prysmian’s subsidiary (fully owned) made a large share sale today from a Hong Kong fiber optics company, in which it reduced its ownership from 10% to 5%, and the gross transaction sum was approximately 187 MEUR in euros. I haven’t delved into the company much, nor have I found its own thread with a search, so I typed a few lines here if anyone is interested in it (it was also in our news this summer through its new cable tower, was it in Kirkkonummi?) before heading to dreamland.

[Maakinen]

In the state budget, a 6 billion order authorization for defense material acquisitions (current year 0.4 billion) and the state carried out an ownership change yesterday at the Uusikaupunki car factory. Perhaps vehicles prepared for drone attacks (radar) could be manufactured. There could be global demand for them.

[Handeli]

@Maakinen

Perhaps one could manufacture vehicles prepared for drone attacks (radar). There could be global demand for them.

It might not be worth inventing something like this oneself when there’s a ready product nearby, and there’s no need to specially manufacture vehicles for the Giraffe. Just put it on any flatbed. But why not for licensed manufacturing, for example. Saab reveals Giraffe 1X Compact Radar Module Saab reveals Giraffe 1X Compact Radar Module

[OsinkoGuru]

According to Nordea, the conditions for economic growth have improved in Finland. Of course, there is no actual economic growth now, as it was just reported that GDP decreased in Q2. So let’s at least rejoice in the improved conditions for economic growth, even if actual economic growth is not yet visible.

[OsinkoGuru]

I consider First North to be a kind of dump; I don’t even try to look for potential investment targets there. There are enough large, real companies available globally.

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Working at Inderes sometimes feels like a TV series, where each episode (workday or week) has a theme.

Today’s clear theme has been ownership and major shareholders, which I encountered in two ways.

In the morning, while walking to work, I listened to @Sauli_Vilen’s interview with Taaleri’s CMD. Familiar themes were present: Garantia, some fund was being grown again, and for a change, capital was being hoarded in the company. I talked to Sauli about Taaleri again after arriving at the office and glanced at the analyses. It’s quite clear that Taaleri trades on the stock exchange below the sum of its parts. The price-to-book value ratio is also one, which is strange when the return on capital is quite decent and the company’s historical track record in acquisitions has sometimes been good. But the clear problem is that no one really knows what the major shareholders want from Taaleri. The strategy bounces all over the place. The stock has been languishing for 10 years, and this doesn’t seem to be ringing any alarm bells in the company! This has always been the case during my time at Inderes and when I first got to know Taaleri more in 2016, and by all accounts, this will always be the case until an awakening occurs among the major shareholders.

Then I made a video with @Pauli_Lohi about Fodelia, because we thought the hidden gems Fodbar and Feelia were worth highlighting to investors. But here too, I considered the company’s historical track record in capital allocation. For the major shareholders, chips seemed to be a beloved industry, and sometimes Feelia’s excellent cash flow was thrown into kebab meat (which was an unsuccessful acquisition). Now Fodelia is focusing a bit (with Feelia and Fodbar as spearheads), but I wonder if more could be extracted from the company by streamlining and divesting Oikia’s chips. Fodelia has been languishing since its short listing history in 2019.

In the short term, companies’ stagnation can be blamed on CEOs or the economy. Then, if problems persist, the board. And if the stagnation continues for ten years, the owners can look in the mirror. Changing the CEO and board is still easy, but shaking up major shareholders is not. The interests of major shareholders can be divergent, such as building some kind of empire.

There would certainly be a demand for an activist investor on the Helsinki Stock Exchange.

[Ilkka6]

@Ilkka6

54/60

IQM is a quantum computing company founded in 2018, headquartered in Espoo.

Quantum computers can solve certain computational tasks exponentially faster than traditional supercomputers. Potential applications include cybersecurity, scientific simulations, optimization, etc. Competitive practical applications do not yet exist, but the field is developing rapidly, and the possibilities are immeasurable.

The company manufactures “full stack” quantum computers for its customers, which include research institutions, technology companies, and universities, and also offers quantum computing as a cloud service. The company’s flagship model, Radiance, is currently available with 54 qubits, and a 150-qubit version is coming soon.

In September, the company announced that it had manufactured its thirtieth quantum computer.

In the fiscal year 12/2023, revenue was €16.9M and the result was a loss of €30.4M. The number of employees was 261.

In the previous funding round in July 2022, the company raised €128M in funding, apparently with a valuation of approximately €900M. The company’s owners include founders and a whole host of international private equity investors, including Varma, Tesi, and Maki.vc from Finland.

IQM has raised €275M in new funding from US-based Ten Eleven, Tesi, and other investors :

https://meetiqm.com/press-releases/iqm-quantum-computers-raises-over-300-million-in-series-b-funding-round/

[Parsa]

Nordnet Customers Net-Bought Electric Bicycle Company Shares for 1.8 Million – Likely an Investment Scam

In Nordnet’s trading statistics, the third most net-bought foreign share was the small electric bicycle company Fly-e. Nordnet has blocked buy orders for the company’s shares in its service.

Nordnetin asiakkaat netto-ostivat 1,8 miljoonalla sähköpyöräyhtiön osakkeita...

[NukkeNukuttaja]

@NukkeNukuttaja

Hopefully, it’s not a “pump and dump” investment scam, though. Kauppalehti had an article yesterday by @Maija_Vehvilainen about these scams, which are marketed, for example, under Mika Heikkilä’s name. Unfortunately, it’s likely behind a paywall. The idea is to give people a stock tip for the day so that as many private investors as possible buy the stock, allowing the initiator of the scam to sell their shares at an opportune moment. The article focused on a US stock this time, but these “recommendations” are also given for Finnish stocks. How toothless are the Financial Supervisory Authority (Finanssivalvonta) and the stock exchange’s surveillance systems regarding such schemes!? Indeed, behind a paywall: “Miina” gave a fantastic stock tip, but soon became aggressive – Reporter tested an investment scam | Kauppalehti

I could immediately quote here the message I wrote this morning in the Spinnova thread, since the topic is relevant. Let me add that it’s quite unlikely that this would be the case with Spinnova, but it’s good to discuss the topic otherwise.

[Juurikki]

@Addick

The rise will only happen after an even bigger fall, and I’d rather reduce leverage at this point than, for example, by selling Sampo.

The current bull run actually started already in October 2023. So almost 2 years ago. We’re soon going to be at ATH in Helsinki too.

[Addick]

In that message, I talked about Citycon’s stock. You can look at a graph of it over a suitable period, but it has declined in almost all timeframes. I myself just exited it with a small loss.

[Aloittelija5]

It occurred to me, how many of you are in a situation where your own role at work affects what kind of companies you invest in? Since I have quite a broad playing field under my responsibility, I inevitably get to know the services of many listed companies, and through this, I sometimes develop a strong understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. Then, when you come to the Inderes forum, you might read quite hopeful texts about the growth opportunities of some companies, and you just think to yourself, “Oh boy, if only you knew what’s happening in company X, Y, or Z” I know that insiders naturally think about this, as they have to limit the information they provide due to legislation, but what about when you are, say, a customer of company X and you know very well how bad things are, and at the same time you wonder how people are investing? I myself am in an industry that hasn’t been doing particularly well in recent years, and here too there are these eternal promises, described as turnaround companies. I always feel like giving my two cents in forum discussions, but some brake kicks in, wondering if it’s appropriate, etc.

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

@Aloittelija5

I’d always like to speak my mind in forum discussions, but something holds me back, wondering if it’s appropriate, etc.

This is a forum where investors help investors.

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

@Kale-possu

Buffett, by the way, had a decent 50-year track record during the tech bubble, but because he didn’t have Tesco and similar companies in his portfolio then, he was mocked as an outdated fossil, and that hurt even a seasoned man.

It’s difficult to stay sane in the financial world. In all possible situations, you’ll find people who have magically succeeded in the previous year and will tell you how things work. At the peak, it’s stated how easy it was to see that one had to be all-in on the right stocks; during crashes, people mysteriously knew how to be in cash. Even those who sold during the last dip remember afterwards that it was a delicious buying opportunity. Pumpers torment analysts of their favorite companies in all situations. In bubbles, golf club members compare their portfolio managers’ returns, and when a quality manager has fallen behind, he gets fired. No one cares if he more than compensates for this in a bear market. A pleasant defensive victory of -25% when the market goes -40% looks like nothing, you were a loser anyway, why didn’t you pick those stocks that swam up like salmon?

I’ve really savored this message, even though its core message is a bit bitter. But it summarizes the public pressure of investing well. This is a field where it’s a top performance if you’re not completely wrong 49% of the time. Or you can even be completely wrong 90% of the time, but when you are rarely right, you make years of gains. Psychological pressure and the typical comparison to others can easily make one feel unwell during periods of underperformance. No wonder many well-known investors like Buffett communicate very rarely and almost never comment deeply on their investments.

[CitizenJ]

@Aloittelija5

I’d always like to speak my mind in forum discussions, but something stops me, wondering if it’s appropriate etc.

[_TeemuHinkula]

Next lynching. Go check out what Proprius has gone and bought. Read the whole story to find out why I’m advertising here too.

https://forum.inderes.com/t/proprius-partnersin-rahastot/37976/255?u=_teemuhinkula

[JP199]

Anna, just keep coming! These kinds of tidbits, so-called from the field, can sometimes be the best content on a forum. As long as all parties in the discussion remember to be critical of sources and capable of independently assessing how relevant the information shared on the forum is to the business of the company in question

If I find out at work or in my free time that, for example, a discussion partner is an employee, customer, or otherwise interacts with an interesting small company, I start asking more about the company Rarely do you get any groundbreaking information for an investment case this way, but you can always learn something from discussions. Sometimes a customer might even badmouth a company and at the same time advise absolutely not to invest, but that has had no effect on the company’s and investment’s success, but rather the opposite

For example, regarding Relais’ subsidiary Raskone, I heard a lot of bad things and stories of failed repairs from several of the company’s customers when I inquired about experiences with the company when Relais announced acquisitions. Either Relais has managed to turn the customer experience completely around, or these were just isolated incidents that can sometimes happen in the country’s largest brand-independent commercial vehicle repair chain when a lot of repairs are being done

For example, it’s difficult to draw very big conclusions from such a small piece of information, as the sample size is very small on a group scale. In any case, Raskone has developed excellently under Relais’ wings, especially in terms of profitability, despite these customers tearing their hair out.

Also, when Puuilo was listed, several acquaintances complained to me about narrow and messy aisles and worn-out store furniture, shopping carts, etc. Well, the number of these messy stores was then roughly doubled, and at the same time, the best profitability in the retail sector in Finland was achieved, and as the CFO said, business went just as well, if not better, from a slightly rougher hall with affordable prices and a carefully considered selection aimed at DIY men and women Of course, the store concept is also fresher in newer locations nowadays.

And it can also go the other way, that it would indeed be worth listening to a customer who criticizes the company. My friend, for example, once trashed Kamux when the additional insurance purchased for the car didn’t cover some repair. It would have been worth listening and selling the shares in good time This happened during the peak of the share price in 2021. So, if you share information directly from the field on the forum, it’s worth considering how significant it is for the company’s business. If I remember correctly, there might even be a separate thread for sharing these lighter customer experiences I’ve mentioned. However, over time, truly valuable information directly from within the industry has been shared in many company threads, and I encourage anyone who has such information to do so!