Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 10)

You certainly keep the car well under control here on the frost-damaged, repair-backlogged roads of the Nordics :sweat_smile:

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Verneri once had a classic post about the multitude of meanings of recommendations :cowboy_hat_face:

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This should link to Tero Kuittinen’s comment on the dangers of sell recommendations for analysts and buy recommendations for investors.

Q: Was it true that you were the first one to give a sell recommendation for Nokia?

A: It was 2008 and… of course no one in Finland made a sell recommendation for Nokia. All Finnish analysts, it remained a buy until the end… all Finnish pension funds stopped talking to me.

Interpretation: For a large company, Sell recommendation = Sell them yesterday.

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Aahhh thanks for bringing that up, it has certainly aged well and still looks perfectly relevant! :smiley:

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Finland mentioned! I was watching Damodaran’s lecture series recorded in New York University in the spring, where Damodaran, illustrating the uselessness of the so-called market beta in DCF valuation, had, for example, dug up good old Nokia :smiley: The example featured an antique screenshot from a Bloomberg terminal, showing Nokia’s market beta for the years 98-00, with HEX as the default comparison index.

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Damodaran had once wondered why Nokia’s beta looked statistically precise, but upon noticing the assumed comparison index, he had to ponder what on earth the HEX index was :smiley: After further investigation, it became clear to him that it was Finland’s index, of which Nokia at the peak of the tech bubble accounted for closer to 80% at that time. :smiley: The index practically moved according to Nokia’s stock price, which made the market beta completely useless, if it isn’t already useless in valuation anyway :smiley:

Link to the lecture at 12:52.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWSxyWsA09w&t=772s

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If one has acquired the first batches of shares at a higher price than the current rate, then, according to the FIFO principle, expensive shares can be “exchanged” for cheaper ones, realizing losses and thus lowering the average price.

However, with round-trip stock trades, tax-related matters must be taken into account:

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It’s definitely worth pitching!

I just picked up a package from R-kioski that I eagerly carried home to open! The content was very pleasing (I won’t spoil it further now due to future surprises), and one product in particular, in addition to amusement, evoked a strong sense of belonging. :smiling_face_with_three

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Was it expired, or has Inderes had more of this meme product manufactured? :grinning:

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A few more bottles were found from the back of the warehouse. Presumably the same vintage as all the previous ones. :smiley:

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Okay! Now there are some unfamiliar terms for me here. What are “losses”?

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Just kidding. I’ve heard of others making losses, I was just joking. Thanks for the kind clarification :+1:t3:. I just noticed that two Aiforia investors are posting consecutive messages about lowering the average price by practically trading with each other. Optis and I already went through some slightly different investment tragedies* in PMs.

*who knows, maybe so

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Quite good additions from Verneri, but important classifications are still missing, e.g., asymmetric opportunity buy, which is somewhat the opposite of a trap buy. If a company is likely to generate 5-10% p.a. in the medium term, that’s not enough for a buy recommendation, but the company might have some market disruptor option which gives a small probability that the company will be the one to capture a growing market and returns will be over 30% p.a. in the medium term.

Or is this a buy-add, meaning actually buy, but the most probable outcome would only justify adding more…

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Inderes used to have a top-3 buy list >5 years ago, which was updated as part of the morning reports, almost daily. This included, for example, faster market situations, special situations, etc. in the short term (clearly less than a year).

Then the philosophy shifted towards the perspective of a longer-term owner, and this aspect was dropped. The general public on the forum liked this, but on the other hand, sometimes money is left on the table. For example, would the model portfolio have taken a small position in the Lindex/Stocka situation if there were more flexibility in the portfolio rules and special situations were sought in the short term? Well, they have been right not to touch it, as this Lindex situation has dragged on a bit ridiculously compared to the timing of the name change, etc. Right now, however, the situation could be favorable. When was the last time the model portfolio played some “special situation”?

I’m probably mixing your original message with a slightly different topic here, sorry about that. It just came to mind as this model portfolio discussion has sparked up here, and some of us are hoping for certain changes :smiley:

Let the model portfolio continue its own life. The forum’s collective intelligence its own.

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A couple more days and I’ll become a lottery millionaire, at least I strongly believe so at this point.

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Here is Henri Huovinen’s interesting tweet concerning monthly stock market return differences.

https://x.com/HenriHuovinen2/status/1961108045271810393
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Is April in Helsinki so strong because of the spring dividend distribution? :roll_eyes:

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Great! Oh, wait…

The optimistic interpretation of the headline requires quite a lot. But the situation could be much worse.

The world is in the grip of two authoritarian leaders. One is waging a trade war, and the small man of a small economy makes himself important by waging a real war.

And as if that weren’t enough, a third authoritarian leader is pouring gasoline on that real war from behind the screens, and a few wannabe dictators of their own small nations are cheering on their idols’ antics, doing their best to prevent the situation from turning for the better.

I have tried to avoid too much analysis of the current world situation. It discourages and depresses. Ignoring the issue is, of course, not a good thing, as many others surely do the same. We just stay silent…

Whenever I ponder the matter for a moment, I say to myself, “Oh hell, this is completely insane chaos.” And every time, I also ponder how the leaders of the world’s second-largest economy (the EU) have watched this theater for years with their hands tied.

Eventually, nature comes to the rescue and does its job. It’s not a guarantee of a better future, but it is at least a possibility – and it’s unlikely to take longer than a decade. If luck is on my side, I’ll get to see a better time.

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The vintage gel stays very durably on the head, and when you comb it, your hair almost comes off.


Mad Beard GIF by Inderes

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I tip my hat to you for joining the sports club’s activities @Juha_Kinnunen. It’s becoming increasingly clear to me that after Sweden, Inderes is heading to Spain!

A few questions arose from the episode:

  1. Have you been to watch pesäp
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:sob:

No wall. Luckily, there’s that option that the company will bring the GT-R back to life…

The company says they intend to bring back the GT-R model name “someday”. There was about 6 years between previous generations.

“I want to tell GT-R fans around the world that this is not a final goodbye to the GT-R,” Espinosa said.

Oh, that’s… so beautiful. :smiling_face_with_tear:

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