Inderes Oyj - "The company belongs to everyone"

Thanks @_TeemuHinkula and @Thyme for sharing and digging into the community data! We are considering how we could, as part of our reporting, increase transparency and bring more precise metrics to both B2C and B2B data during this year. The current YAU and the number of listed company customers tell us something, but it remains a somewhat narrow view. Your comments are important :pray:

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A book is coming out :star_struck:

https://x.com/mikaelrautanen/status/1882693364325515380

Disciplined Anarchy – The Story of Mikael Rautanen and Inderes

A disruptor in the financial sector challenges conventional thinking

On a Monday in October 2021, a slender young man buys a lot of beer from S-market. The salesperson asking for ID doesn’t know that the person making the purchase is the CEO of a newly listed company, 36-year-old Mikael Rautanen, who is on his way to celebrate his company’s listing.

About 13 years earlier, during the financial crisis, Rautanen was a quiet finance student who was bothered by investor insider dealings and bursting economic bubbles. As a stock market ‘nerd’, he started writing analyses of listed companies. His predictions about Nokia’s development were so accurate that high-profile investor publications began to follow what he had to say.

Based on the hobby of Rautanen and his friends, the analysis service Inderes was born, which in a few years grew into a trusted stock market hawk for the general public. However, Inderes is not an ordinary company: its disciplined anarchy organizational model challenges established notions of working life and management and paints a new picture of the style and methods of success.

In his personal life, Rautanen has experienced heavy losses and health challenges. How have difficult experiences influenced his views on company management? How does one hold onto down-to-earth values when the world around strives for quick enrichment?

Publication Date
Audiobook: May 15, 2025
E-book: May 15, 2025

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I’ve been wondering to myself how many will throw in the towel after reading this, once it’s revealed how messy this work has sometimes been :laughing:

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Supported! Information is an investor’s fundamental right! I have sometimes suggested to a couple of CEOs of listed companies that they should publish more data, for example, on what their revenue consists of. Both feared that quarterly fluctuations would confuse investors. In my opinion, this underestimates investors, and these figures could be published for the last 12 months, for example, so that seasonal variations would even out.

One of these companies took the advice and now publishes the information even in its quarterly reports. The fate of the other will be revealed on February 12th. They did promise.

To stimulate discussion, I could publish my own data. Perhaps it would bring ideas and encourage others to start collecting data if they feel like it. Q1 2023 was apparently a hectic or perhaps depressing time, as the figures for that period are not updated. I have almost never updated the figures on the last day of the quarter.
InderesMetrics.xlsx (70.9 KB)

Beyond that, I would be interested in at least website visitor numbers, the number of readers of morning reports, and forum data. Additionally, information on the number of views for the most popular analyses could be of interest.

GRAPHS

Inspired by @Thyme, I’m also putting the graphs here for the entire collection period for those who don’t want to open Excel.

Finnish Forum.
There was some strange dive in Q1 2023, apparently others were also getting annoyed by the scam markets. Recently, the number of users has even been in parabolic growth!
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Swedish and Danish forums.
It’s quiet.
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Shareholders
Ownership has become concentrated, which has also resulted in me being brazenly pushed off the Top 100 list.
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YouTube
InderesTV’s development is steady.
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As in Sweden and Denmark. Of course, the scale is completely different compared to Finland.
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FACEBOOK
The number of followers on Inde’s own page saturated a long time ago.
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The Stock Investing group, on the other hand, grows in spurts.
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It should be mentioned that HCA Capital has an FB page with approx. 1000 followers. They also have a forum with 500 members there, but their follower numbers haven’t changed much.

INSTAGRAM
Relatively steady development.
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HCA also has its own account for the Youth Board.
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I just recently found the Inderes.se account. It has 137 followers.

X

Followers have even decreased recently.
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Inderes.se only recently surpassed HCA in followers.
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LinkedIn

This seems to be HCA’s main channel. Or at least the most followed.
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TikTok
Here too, the number of followers is growing nicely.
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On TikTok, likes seem to be more important than followers, as algorithms feed all sorts of content. I only started following them in the summer.
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There may be errors in these, as the data is collected manually by a human.

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I’ve never yet encountered a company where, from the inside, the operations weren’t an absolute mess. I mean, like, a crucial contract meeting with a key client is scheduled, and no one remembers to show up. Or a mandatory regulatory document hasn’t been drafted for 10 years. Or, for example, a rant about one customer’s stupidity is shared on multiple internal Slack channels, and then that text is accidentally copy-pasted to an external social media channel.

Absolutely everyone tries to project professionalism to outsiders, and when the truth is revealed, even for a moment, it’s often experienced as a huge loss of face. I do believe that Inderes’ owners are reasonable enough people to understand that typical corporate chaos happens, regardless of whether you tell us about it or not :smiley:

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Do others have diligent IR working on weekends doing manual updates, or why do many other companies manage to publish the shareholder list right on the first day of the month, despite weekends and holidays? :thinking:
9ir6l4

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Inderes Oyj,

Company release 4.2.2025 at 8:00 a.m.

Inderes Oyj’s Financial Statement Release 2024: Revenue, Profit, and Cash Flow Grew in a Challenging Market

Key figures January-December 2024

  • Revenue grew by 7.1% and was EUR 18.4 (17.2) million, recurring revenue accounted for 60.4% (61.0%) of revenue
  • Swedish revenue was EUR 3.9 (3.6) million, accounting for 21.2% (21.3%) of total revenue
  • EBITA operating profit was EUR 2.1 (1.8) million and EBITA margin was 11.6% (10.6%)
  • Adjusted earnings per share were EUR 0.95 (0.80)*
  • Cash flow after investments grew by 106% and was EUR 2.8 (1.4) million
  • Inderes provided services to 427 (427) listed companies during the last 12 months
  • Inderes platform reach was 19.1 (19.6) million website visits in 2024 and active membership was 66 (74) thousand at the end of the period
  • The Board of Directors proposes to the Annual General Meeting that a dividend of EUR 0.87 (0.85) per share be distributed in two installments

Adjusted for group goodwill amortizations and associate company (HC Andersen Capital) group goodwill amortizations.*

Key figures October-December 2024

  • Revenue grew by 1.0% and was EUR 4.2 (4.2) million
  • Recurring revenue grew by 6.0% and was EUR 2.8 (2.7) million, recurring revenue accounted for 66.4% (63.3%) of revenue
  • Project revenue decreased by -7.7% and was EUR 1.4 (1.5) million
  • Swedish revenue was EUR 0.9 (1.0) million, accounting for 20.6% (23.7%) of total revenue
  • EBITA operating profit was EUR 0.0 (0.2) million and EBITA margin was 0.9% (5.7%)
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It’s great that the full year’s figures are presented first, so we can be disappointed only later when the latest figures come after that :hugs:. Well, I don’t know how it went compared to the forecasts, but a zero result doesn’t evoke any special cheers, even though recurring revenue grew slightly.

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I would say that overall the year went quite well considering that the market was very sluggish :saluting_face:

Controlled operations without jumping around here and there (whatever that means)

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SEB’s comments on Q4 results:

kuva

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This week I transitioned to be responsible for the product ownership of our IR software, together with @Minna_Avellan, our business lead. I am transferring more of the general meeting services and operational matters in Finland to my trusted battle buddy @Sara_Antonacci, who is also the team’s lawyer :sunglasses: You will, however, still see me at the general meetings of listed companies as a foot soldier.

The data indeed comes to us already on the first day of the month, sometimes around 2:00-3:00 AM, but in Finland, the infrastructure of the book-entry securities system does not support any programmatic API for fetching data, so someone has had to manually click the data themselves or probably go to their Helsinki office to copy the data :melting_face: (I wish there was a programmatic way to do this, but it is what it is). This feedback is still very relevant, and we could investigate some RPA (Robotic Process Automation) tools with which we could automate those manual clicks.

Please also share other good ideas if you think of anything regarding press releases and listed company websites, if you want something to be developed. Cheers!!!

Yu Gong
Product Owner, IR & Shareholder Products

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It would be convenient if those announcements had some filters available. These could be, for example, press releases, stock exchange releases, management transactions, own share repurchases, and Finnish-language announcements.

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TÀssÀ on vielÀ SEBUn kommentit vÀhÀn kattavammin. :slight_smile:

Inderes’ Q4 report prompts us to cut our estimates more than the headline deviations indicate. While IR software continues its solid growth, the commissioned research base took a step down. The company is now re-shaping its Swedish playbook, which we read as slower growth in 2025. The positives included cash flow (2024 FCF yield of 8%) and a thawing IPO market. Our fair value range is trimmed to EUR 19-21 (20-22).

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Now I’ve had a chance to go through the financial statements and webcast thoughtfully. A few questions came to mind.

@Mikael_Rautanen

1) Denmark
a) There was 20% growth in a “terrible market” as the “team seeks new niches”. What are these new niches? Is there anything to learn from Denmark regarding Sweden? Can similar niches be found in Sweden?
b) In Denmark, an analysis was done for one company using the Inderes model. What experiences have been gained from it and how has it been received? There seem to be three analysts working on one company there.

2) Sweden
It has been learned that “when talking about commissioned analysis, there has been some kind of mismatch with customers regarding what they are used to getting and what they expect.” What are these differences in views?

3) Moving and rental costs
These are probably minor details, at least financially, but let’s ask anyway. In Q4, the company moved to new premises in both Sweden and Finland. I assume the costs were under 100k euros, is that correct?

I recall you saying that in addition to premises suitable for the whole band, at least in Finland, more efficient use of square meters was also sought from a cost perspective?

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Thanks, Lecturer Hinkula! Here are quick answers

This well describes the energy of their team; they haven’t just stood still but have actively tested new things and understood customer needs. Concrete factors include IR advisory services, First North Certified Advisor services (they are already market leaders in Denmark, although that didn’t require much, Inderes doesn’t have this service), Inderes’ press release distribution system, new event concepts (e.g., 2x institutional seminars), and a few larger individual client accounts. HCA has built a comprehensive package for a small listed company, allowing clients to save a lot of time and simplify their lives as a listed company by centralizing purchases to one point. Their price disruption has even caused public disapproval (commentators, however, have not dared to come forward with their own names) in the more traditional end of the industry, which I am particularly proud of. The strategy is “from nice to need to,” meaning the offering has been moved more strongly towards mandatory services for listed companies. We can at least learn from their energy, the functionality of concepts built for small companies, and of course, this partnership gives us important lessons on how we can expand into new markets through partner models.

Exactly, the HCA team has nearly fifty companies under “light analysis” and has now piloted the “Inde model” and done sales work for it. So far, the main experience is that sales cycles are extremely long in this particular market. However, after the first case, there is now a reference, processes have been set up, etc., so the next ones will be significantly easier!

Despite sincere and strong efforts, we did not succeed well enough in communicating that if a company wants positive momentum and publicity for its stock, we are not necessarily the right service provider (however, over time, about 40% of recommendations are reduce/sell). Confusion may have been caused by the fact that the target price of another analysis could have been 2-5 times higher than Inderes’. The product has not met the expectations and perceptions associated with company-paid services, both from the companies’ and investors’ perspectives.

Welcome to Ruoholahti for a lynching! Perhaps when you visit here, you’ll see that we have practical and tidy modern workplace facilities, but no money has been wasted on unnecessary extravagance or glamour. The premises suit us for this moment. Perhaps more relevant here (though this is also a minor detail) is that we got a significant upgrade in premises in both Helsinki and especially Stockholm, but our running office costs will not change significantly. This is because the previous premises in Ruoholahti, spread over several floors, were so inefficient in terms of both space utilization and costs.

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That HCA certainly seems like an excellent investment. Would there be demand in Sweden or Finland for similar services to what HCA currently offers in Denmark?

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Thank you for the thorough answers.

They brought to mind follow-up questions:

So, has cross-selling been done in Denmark for those fifty companies that have undergone “light analysis”, achieving 20% growth in a sluggish market?

If that is the case and



then has a similar light analysis been considered in Sweden, whereby the companies in question would gain visibility through Inderes’ distribution partners and would not have to fear negative recommendations? At the same time, Inderes would get a foot in the door and an opportunity for cross-selling. Such a cheaper light analysis could be thought to interest micro-cap companies in the hope of better visibility.

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I don’t know if you can answer this directly, but let’s try:

So, in Sweden, people are used to buy analyses being bullish and target prices being even more entertaining in this regard? Can it therefore be said that the headlines seen in Sweden like “Xxx raises Yyy’s target price to 500 (450) kronor” can be completely nonsensical throws without that analysis, and that target prices might even differ many times over depending on whether the company pays for it?

Could this then explain why analyses bought in Sweden have such a bad reputation?

That then casts a somewhat dark cloud over Sweden’s growth prospects, if the entire tarnished reputation of buy analyses were to be changed.

And did I understand correctly that Swedes are wondering “why did you give a sell recommendation even though we paid a fortune for this?” :thinking:

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Based on Inderes’s previous communication, the situation is exactly as you wrote, meaning that in Sweden, people are accustomed to “paid love” in “stock analyses.”

That is then a double-edged sword from the perspective of growth prospects, as there is a dire need in Sweden for independent and expert stock analysis, but the entire market must first be taught to understand its benefits. In an ideal situation, the demand for independent analysis would come from investors, after which it would be easier for companies to pay for such instead of current marketing-driven target prices.

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The service offerings are quite similar, but their concept for small companies seems appealing (simplicity, cost savings, and familiar faces from whom to buy services). The difference compared to us is the Certified Advisor service (every First North company needs a CA), which Inderes does not offer. HCA acquired this CA license from Nasdaq last year, and because competition in the small Danish market is quite thin, there has been demand for it.

In HCA’s spearhead “Digital IR” product, the back end has been leaking in recent years due to delistings and customers’ financial difficulties. Digital IR is a kind of combo of analyst interviews, quarterly live presentations, and “light analysis,” similar things to what we do, just packaged differently. Their growth has come from other products.

Companies are always interested in more affordable options, but for a value-creating sustainable concept, the pull should come from investors. Is there demand for this among investors, and if so, what kind of format? We need to find a concept that can be produced cost-effectively (=lower price) and at the same time provides some added value to investors / some niche investor target group. If the analysis includes analyst-made forecasts, valuation, and takes a stance, it’s difficult to push the price down. Then the question arises, if the analysis does not include forecasts, valuation, or take any stance, what distinctive elements do we use to create added value for investors on top of the information already available about the company? We need to constantly think about these things, and of course, AI tools open up completely new possibilities on this front.

I’ll check if we have any internal research and data on this to share in more detail! I, as an optimist, naturally see this as a huge opportunity and an inspiring challenge, meaning the market needs us :eyes:

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