Inderes Oyj - "The company belongs to everyone"

Hello,

Even though I’m not filling in for Mikael here, since I’ve been responsible for the majority of company monitoring agreements concluded before 2024, I’m certainly the right person to answer this :man_raising_hand:

I dug up some data. Between 2018 and 2025, 69 companies have listed in Helsinki and on FN (this doesn’t account for list transfers, but genuine new companies including spin-offs). Of these, 7 have never been under our monitoring, and 62 have at least been under monitoring (a couple went bankrupt, for one, monitoring never even started despite a contract, one was acquired, another terminated the agreement, etc.).

I calculated data for this period, and on average, listed companies have come under our monitoring approximately 7 months after listing. The spread is, of course, very wide. 27 companies have been taken under monitoring immediately, and in these cases, we were either involved in the IPO or monitoring was initiated as soon as the listing began. Conversely, the longest sales cycle has been 1792 days, just under 5 years (this honor goes to BBS :man_mage: ). If we exclude cases where monitoring was initiated immediately (i.e., we had a contract signed before the IPO), the average rises to over 12 months. So, if monitoring doesn’t start immediately at the IPO or right after, it takes on average over 12 months for a company to come under monitoring. The median is, of course, somewhat lower, as those individual 3-5 year lags raise the average for everyone. :date:

If you look at which companies we are typically involved with right from the start of listing, they are usually smaller companies. This is because smaller companies usually come through smaller advisors (Evli, EY, Sisu, Alexander, UB, etc.), and these advisors typically don’t have their own analysis operations. Therefore, they are often interested in including us in the analysis or at least ensuring that someone starts monitoring the company quickly. In large IPOs, on the other hand, the organizers are brokerage firms (Nordea, Carnegie, SEB, etc.) that have their own analysis operations. They rarely need/want us involved because their own analysis operations handle these. In these cases, we typically don’t discuss company monitoring with the company before the listing, as the company has its hands full with the IPO and its focus is there. We usually start negotiations after the IPO.

Without going into specific company matters, as you can see from the 2025 listings (GRK, Posti, Nokian Panimo, Cityvarasto, and Framery), 4x were brought by large players, and only Nokian Panimo is smaller. It’s worth noting here that Evli was the lead organizer, and Evli also performed the IPO analysis. If I recall correctly, in all Evli IPOs during this period, Evli also initiated company monitoring. For clarity, I also state that we have been alongside Evli in several of their cases doing IPO analysis (e.g., Relais). :blush:

Then, a response to the sharp observation regarding Mifid2. We have not seen any change. The problem remains that trading in smaller companies does not sustain anyone, so earnings must come from elsewhere. In addition, commissioned analysis has become part of all players’ offerings in the Mifid2 era, and this is a significantly better way to finance the analysis of smaller companies.

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Regarding Nokian Panimo, Evli is a natural choice as both an IPO and analysis partner, as the company’s main owner is Evli’s founder and was chairman until recently. An analysis client relationship with Inde could be more likely if growth investments genuinely lead to growth.

My belief is that analysis clients will gradually start flowing to Inde from these listed companies. Let’s hope that the windows to the stock market remain more open in the future and sales cycles are shorter than with Bittium before Russia’s war of aggression.

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@studentcoverage_team has given their comments on Inderes’ performance. :slight_smile:

Inderes’ revenue grew by 15% in November and was EUR 1.8 (1.6) million. The growth continued October’s strong development, and the combined revenue for October–November is EUR 3.6 (3.2) million, which corresponds to approximately 12–13% growth compared to the reference period. The strong development over two consecutive months is a clear boost to the exceptionally weak project revenue of the third quarter.

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Good growth figures from Inderes in November :+1:

After the profit warning, we have received two good sets of monthly figures, and the IPO window has also picked up pace. Overall, there has been a positive sentiment in the stock markets, meaning the drivers for Inderes’ stock should also be rather positive. Yet, the share price has continued its downward trend, and for me, the only clear negative driver is potential year-end tax sales. That’s why I’m asking the rest of you, am I missing any negative developments? Has anyone in Sweden noticed any more sluggish developments? Are some investors afraid that AI will take the market from Inderes? Has Inderes faced tougher competition in some segments than before, and is future profitability no longer believed in as it used to be? Something else?

In the same context, it’s probably wise to note that the management has also not been interested in Inderes’ stock, whose valuation multiples have recovered.

Share your thoughts and tell us what threatens us as owners. Thanks in advance!

Aaron Kaartinen pondered about Inderes’ stock like this yesterday on X:

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Regarding this, I believe that the management already has such a large ownership in the company that it would not be good (even for the market) for them to increase it.

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Indeed, those 26 figures have quite high growth numbers built in if one compares them to the 2024 adjusted EPS. Will the growth materialize and from which components is likely the question?
Screenshot_2025-12-12-13-29-50-10_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12

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Inderes’s stock has poor liquidity. The only ways to sell a large quantity of the stock are to find a buyer or good news. This time, the good news was a second consecutive good month. Realizing losses can be a perfectly good reason to sell. The stock doesn’t look particularly cheap unless one believes things will improve. I myself believe in it to some extent, and on the other hand, that management will find a new growth path if the current ones don’t really take off as expected. That’s why I doubled my holdings for a significant sale. The same applies to buyers as to selling. You have to trade when there’s a counterparty. Today, perhaps 6,000 shares wouldn’t have been available.

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Here’s a fresh look at Inderes from Sebu. :slight_smile:

Inderes delivered solid monthly sales in November with sales increasing by
15% y/y. The strong growth owes to improved CMD activity. The sales beat our
estimate by EUR 0.2m, which was the case also in October. Consequently, after
two months of reporting in Q4 the sales run-rate is some EUR 0.4m above our
current projection. Our positive read-x is also supported by the fact that
Inderes has managed to win CMDs also in Sweden.

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Greetings to the Forum!

Here is the Inderes Q4 preview we promised for this year. We also want to highlight a change in our team composition. Vilho Saarela is leaving the analyst team as he moves to new duties. The new role requires full independence from Inderes, which is why continuing in the student analyst team is not possible. Sami Tuuri will continue until the end of the coverage period and will comment on Inderes’ 2025 financial statements bulletin in February.

The student analyst team would like to thank you for the past year and wish you a happy and profitable 2026!

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Juha Ollikainen was responsible for the largest selling pressure in December, disappearing from the December shareholder list:

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Pauli Lohi also trimmed 1,000 shares, and Tero Jokinen also sold a bit.

Mikko Mäkinen was then among the largest buyers, both in his own name and his company’s.

And Petri Kajaani’s Twin Engine:

image

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