Incap as an Investment

Who has given up shares? Or has someone just sucked up an additional 700,000 shares from the market. The price has moved surprisingly little if this is the case.

2 Likes

Pure speculation on my part, Incap’s presence at defense industry events over the last year, and perhaps even longer, has made me wonder if Incap might be planning some kind of contract manufacturing/cooperation related to drones or similar current trend topics in the defense industry. I don’t know, but the Norwegians clearly know something, as Masse has put on their buying pants in early spring.

6 Likes

Some clever person could investigate and calculate that a bit. I don’t know how easy it is to get that information from the market. We will follow the situation with interest!

Alcancia Capital AS + 262,304 units into TOP15.
A new Norwegian owner hits the lists.

21 Likes

As @Elmo has commendably highlighted, Incap’s Top 15 owners shuffled chairs in May:

Screenshot from 2025-06-02 11-03-40

15 Likes

https://incapcorp.com/fi/osakkeenomistajat/

Now there are updated lists there as well. Nothing really striking besides the Norwegians already mentioned many times. Kari Kakkonen has lightened his position by 100,000 shares, and Joonas Korkiakoski hasn’t made his usual addition of 200-400 shares this time. :smiley:

4 Likes

@Antti_Viljakainen

I don’t remember if I’ve asked this before, but I’ll ask again. Would Incap, Scanfil, or perhaps Note AB achieve any synergies through a merger? Or do you see such a merger of two small players into one large one as possible at all? You surely know the products, supply chains, etc., better than I do, so you can see the big picture.

I myself could see a few reasons why this might be the case, and it would immediately feel like a good option to grow larger in this way if no one can find a company to buy at a suitable price on the market, or conversely, considers themselves too valuable for others’ takeover bids.

2 Likes

I have been trying to find information about Incap’s largest customer, Victron Energy B.V, related to Incap’s defense industry potential.

From the perspective of, what is the overwhelmingly most important customer’s angle to the arms industry?

Victron is an unlisted company, and for example, the press section of their websites is frankly comically empty. Victron started with electrical systems for pleasure boats, from there expanded to the RV side, off-grid homes, and their product range now covers solar power systems for SMEs. Victron’s own products (which Incap thus assembles) are suitable for many drone-side charging solutions as they are, but the company apparently does not actively offer them to anyone. End-users can, of course, buy and use them as they please. In the boating sector, Victron is the Mercedes of the industry. The more expensive the boat, the more certainly it has Victron for all electrical equipment. When dealing with multi-million dollar boats, the customer will get a look of disbelief from the boatyard staff if they don’t want Victron’s hardware.

In my opinion, it is possible that it is wise for Incap not to make a very public Kitron-type image change. Ownership and values can be anything in an unlisted company.

Incap has indeed already made drones according to Pukki, and neither party has ever revealed themselves to be partners. Victron admits that unnamed partners assemble their products.

7 Likes

I somehow recall having answered a similar question. However, I couldn’t find the answer with a search (could be my own clumsiness), so here’s a brief version.

I don’t consider it particularly likely that we would see more than a few individual arrangements between listed companies in the contract manufacturing industry. Traditionally, consolidation in the industry has progressed with large (or larger) listed companies acquiring small (or smaller) unlisted companies.

In arrangements between listed companies, an increase in size would bring small synergies from acquisitions and administration, but we are still talking about a relatively small scale. Additionally, negative synergies are possible if companies have the same customers who operate with a typical multi-supplier model. Valuation views are also even more difficult to reconcile in arrangements between listed companies than in arrangements between a listed company and an unlisted company, as the market prices (and their histories) of both are continuously available, and from both perspectives, their own stock is somewhat undervalued and the neighbor’s is overvalued. Arrangements between listed companies would also easily turn into an equal merger, which is always a difficult starting point.

Although I am skeptical, arrangements between listed companies in the contract manufacturing industry are not entirely unprecedented or impossible. Scanfil acquired (i.e., did not merge with) PartnerTech in 2015 and created significant value thanks to a low acquisition price and turning around the business’s results. A few years ago, there were also rumors that Scanfil and Kitron had discussed a merger, which, according to “horsemen’s talk,” fell through precisely due to differing valuation views. I emphasize that the latter is/was a rumor, the truthfulness of which cannot be guaranteed.

27 Likes

Thanks @Antti_Viljakainen for the quick and comprehensive answer! :folded_hands: I guess the impatience of a small investor waiting for some movement shines through even that far. However, it’s best to give the wiser gentlemen Pukk & Pynnönen peace to work, all the power and authority to make the right moves to create value. That’s what they’re paid for :slight_smile:

5 Likes

Here are Nordea’s fresh comments regarding the seminar held by Otto, where Nordea highlighted how the company relies on its strong profitability and diversified business model. The outlook for 2025 is positive, even though there is still instability in the markets.

13 Likes

Apologies for the paywall. Here’s some factual information about Incap for those who haven’t closely followed the company’s activities in recent years. Solar power systems were mentioned, and this is quite an interesting point because three acquaintances of mine have now invested or are investing in solar energy for their summer cottages. The systems are relatively robust in size, and (without my influence) Victron’s gear has been chosen as the winner in each location based on the recommendations of various electricians. This is, of course, a very insignificant sample, but does it say something when nothing happened in this field for a few years, and now equipment seems to be moving again even here in Finland?

Someone could, by the way, suggest to Victron that they change the color of their electric car charging stations from ugly blue to, for example, always stylish black or white. In principle, it’s a trivial matter, but for some, even this might have a surprisingly big impact, although I believe that ultimately quality decides.

16 Likes

Victron’s gear is so totally modular, like Lego bricks, that many solar installers who install panels and inverters prefer not to touch anything else.

Additionally, the significant off-the-grid housing market in the United States is a relatively small play for Victron = tariffs don’t have much impact. They haven’t even bothered to apply for the certifications required by insurance companies, even though the Quattros assembled by Incap in India are 10 times better technology than what the Chinese are pushing into that market.

EDIT: Clarification. In many US states, there are very generous laws that compel electricity companies to buy excess solar power produced by homes, even at the full kWh price. At the same time, the grid is what it is. Many have full solar power at home, but are still connected to the grid. They pay for their equipment by selling electricity. Victron hasn’t bothered to apply for certifications for this buyback use.

7 Likes

Incap’s Victron deal will make money for years even after the Orange Gentleman and Putler have gone six feet under.

For Victron, it’s not about pennies when assembling products costing very high thousands, which are often needed a dozen per application. They have total market hegemony with their core expertise (high-end boating) and a strongly growing market in solar power implementations, up to the scale of a large automotive retail outlet.

11 Likes

Something like this
Screenshot_20250610_214459_com.facebook.katana_edit_245793291097911
Screenshot_20250610_214450_com.facebook.katana_edit_245804588849472

And something like that
Screenshot_20250610_214351

Good job Incap! :trophy:

16 Likes

Scanfil’s acquisition (for an 80% stake at a price of EUR 13 million and over EUR 30 million in additional revenue) could also have fit into Incap’s portfolio. It remains to be seen if Incap will make a similar and larger acquisition in the near future. The defense industry and aviation would also be interesting areas for Incap.

13 Likes

As a shareholder, I’m starting to get a bit worried, as I’ve tried to contact Incap multiple, multiple times regarding potential contract manufacturing matters, and no one has responded even once yet :face_exhaling:

3 Likes

Could you elaborate a bit on what you’ve tried to communicate to the company, and what worries you about the matter from a shareholder’s perspective? :blush:

3 Likes

Apparently, @Jorrma would like to order contract manufacturing from Incap, but Incap, for one reason or another, does not respond to the potential customer’s inquiries.

6 Likes

Exactly. I’ve tried calling the Head Office/Estonian factory number found on the website for work matters. On several different days, the first time already a couple of months ago. It’s not an urgent or prioritized matter, but certainly interesting as a shareholder too. I’ll keep trying to reach them and will finally send an email now. I understand that Incap has a choice of customers, but it has still caused a bit of confusion :face_with_monocle:

23 Likes