And here’s the video! Just watch and listen 
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Apologies if this is zero-content for this thread, but it’s such a quiet thread that it’s fine. It’s good for someone to challenge things sometimes.
I don’t know the company very well, but I got interested when Marianne and Kaisa saw something in it and Viljakainen slapped a buy recommendation on it. They call it a quality company.
I glanced at the company’s Q1 report and Femmesalkku’s report. (https://www.inderes.fi/files/856aee4a-d93f-4c14-833d-0c4590ce30d) A comprehensive report on this is apparently not available, and I can’t see Antti’s report as I don’t subscribe to premium.
If the company is so high-quality and “the best on the stock market,” then I wonder where the growth is? Inderes predicts utterly modest growth, practically at the rate of inflation. The company itself only talks about growth in its report as much as it has to. If the company doesn’t grow, then in my opinion, it’s not very high-quality, and it’s pointless for an investor to expect very high returns. The company mentions 100 million in savings in its report; are successful savings the core of the investment story here?
The multiples are, of course, historically low, but the reason is clear: growth has stalled. In that case, the multiples should indeed be lower than before.
Indeed, I don’t know the company very well, but my acquaintance with it will probably end here if no one tells me what the roadmap for growth is 
If there isn’t one, it’s hard to imagine why those multiples would suddenly jump anywhere. At the same time, one can forget the quality company label.
For a dividend investor, it’s certainly a very decent target. And certainly also if one swallows the world-improving story as is.
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I think now would be a sensible time to buy back shares. Growth is very moderate or non-existent, which dampens investment needs, and this naturally increases free cash flow. This naturally reduces Huhtamäki’s payout ratio when reflected against free cash flow. The company cannot do anything about the prevailing market conditions, but it can significantly influence capital allocation.
Huhtamäki’s valuation level is at multi-year lows. (P/E ratio, dividend yield, P/S ratio) Thus, returning capital to owners would provide good value relative to the price paid. Huhtamäki’s dividend history has been commendable. Sensible utilization of share buybacks would raise capital allocation to an even higher level.
The company’s business is stable and profitable by nature, so the timing risk is also significantly lower than for companies whose business has more volatility.
In my opinion, this is at least worth discussing why or why not. I understand, of course, that the weight of one Huhtamäki owner in this matter probably weighs as much as an empty Huhtamäki cardboard cup in the trash.
I thought this was a forum where such an opinion could be openly expressed.
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There is an authorization from the Annual General Meeting for share buybacks, so I assume this will be implemented at some point, at least to some extent. Huhtamäki Oyj:n varsinaisen yhtiökokouksen päätökset
" Authorisation of the Board of Directors to resolve on the acquisition of the Company’s own shares
The Annual General Meeting resolved to authorise the Board of Directors to resolve on the acquisition of a maximum of 10,776,038 of the Company’s own shares. Own shares may be acquired at the price formed in public trading on the acquisition date or otherwise at the market price. Based on the authorisation, own shares may also be acquired in a directed manner. The authorisation is valid until the close of the next Annual General Meeting, however, no longer than until 30 June 2026."
On the other hand, not all money should be distributed, as the McDonald’s paper straws manufactured by Huhtamaki are perhaps the worst product in world history, so money should also be reserved for product development.
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Those purchase authorizations are quite standard for almost any company, and don’t reveal much about the actual plans for buying back own shares.
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I would assume that the 2022 revenue is an exception to the trend. The more difficult economic situation in recent years has reduced sales, even though the company has grown previously. I also hope for some growth from acquisitions, which Inderes does not include in its forecasts.
Jefferies recently lowered its recommendation, fearing weakness in North American sales. The stock price has, however, already fallen since then. It will be interesting to see the Q2 report. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/huhtamaki-downgraded-by-jefferies-to-hold-2025-ebit-outlook-trimmed-4086821
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It hasn’t always been a quality company, only for a little over 10 years, since Moisio became CEO. Is that enough time to declare the company a quality company? The share price is now the same as 10 years ago, although some dividends have been paid. Kim Lindström once said that Huhtamäki is a perpetual underperformer, but patience eventually paid off. However, it would have been a good move to sell the stock after the rise 10 years ago, he might have even sold it, as he wrote in 2016: Huhtamäki’s share price has doubled in two years, but the dividend yield remains weaker than usual. According to veteran investor Kim Lindström, this indicates that the stock is overpriced. In an interview with Arvopaperi, he finds other sell-side papers on the Helsinki Stock Exchange.
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For a low-risk target, even less growth should probably be permissible. During the period you mentioned, 2015-2024, revenue grew from 2.7 billion to 4.1 billion, so annual growth was 4.2% vs. inflation (HICP) of 2.4%. The dividend increased every year, from 0.66 euros in 2015 to 1.10 euros last year. A total of 8.93 euros per share was distributed in dividends.
The word “growth” appears 50 times in the latest annual report, which I believe certainly exceeds mandatory talk.
The recent trend, by the way, looks slightly different when considering how large a portion of Huhtamäki’s revenue is denominated in dollars. Calculated in dollars, revenue grew relatively steadily from 2021-2024.
Of course, not all investments suit everyone, and it may well be that you find a better target in some growth company.
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I agree that it’s always worth investing in product development, but my own experiences with these McDonald’s straws have been very good when compared to other paper straws. I don’t recall the straws ever getting soggy for me or the children. When children sometimes drink, for example, Lidl’s juice boxes with straws, the straws very often turn into paper pulp in those. I also haven’t observed any bad taste in these Huhtamäki straws, so in my opinion, the product is excellent precisely for that single-use purpose.
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Today, the news also brought a rather bold view of Huhtamäki’s future. According to the news, UBS is initiating coverage of Huhtamäki. The recommendation is Buy with a 12-month target price of 40 euros. 
Here’s some information about UBS’s forecasts. A few excerpts from the article.
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According to UBS, Huhtamaki’s end markets are expected to grow at a 4.6% compound annual rate between 2025 and 2029.
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UBS projects Huhtamaki’s revenues will rise from €4.16 billion in 2025 to €4.9 billion by 2029, while diluted EPS is forecast to increase from €2.55 to €3.27 over the same period.
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Huhtamaki’s profitability is also improving. The company’s adjusted EBIT margin rose from 8.8% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2024. UBS expects this to stabilize above 10% from 2026 onward, reaching 10.3% by 2027.
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Return on invested capital is projected to exceed 12.5% by 2029, up from 12.1% in 2024.
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Net debt is projected to fall from €1.19 billion in 2025 to €880 million by 2029. Net debt to EBITDA is forecast to improve to 1.5x in 2026, from 1.9x in 2025.
The article also states that UBS Evidence Lab surveys show that consumers’ willingness to pay more for sustainable packaging is growing, which would further support demand.
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2 messages were merged into the thread: Course and Change Inquiries, Complaints, and Raves (Part 4)
The largest owners have been selling, except for Sr Nordea Nordics.
However, the management team has been buying during the past 12 months.
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People are looking for reasons for ownership with "desperate fury" , but I guess it’s just about the company pushing cheap or free shares on them, whether they want them or not. Sara Engber hasn’t had time to get them yet, as she only joined the management team a couple of months ago. Commitment…
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Yep. According to the annual report, 30,700 shares were distributed as an incentive, which explains most of the increases in the management team’s holdings. At least some of them have also been bought.
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Here is Jussi Halme’s video about Huhtamäki.
Is Huhtamäki a hidden gem in the boring packaging business or just a safe haven for value investors?
In this video, I delve into Huhtamäki’s situation: the stock price decline, growth potential, and risks. Why are analysts giving buy recommendations right now? What makes local production in the United States Huhtamäki’s ace in the hole, and what do insider share purchases tell about the future?
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Spotted in Kauppalehti, no paywall.
“Huhtamäki wants to grow to a certain size in India,” the newspaper’s anonymous sources say.
According to the sources, the company would have reserved approximately 400–500 million dollars for acquisitions and would also have the possibility to raise loans locally to finance the acquisitions.
Behind the rumors is a wave of consolidation in the packaging industry taking place in the country. Currently, large international players, such as Essel Propack, Manjushree and Huhtamäki, are looking for acquisition targets to expand their coverage both in different products and geographically.
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Capex has clearly been on a downward trend, so growth should come through acquisitions. Organic growth will likely continue to come from the fiber packaging side, supported by new packaging regulations in the US, investments already made there, and the smaller Zellwin Farms acquisition.
Indebtedness is at the lower end of the target, which enables a larger acquisition. Why an acquisition would be located specifically in India is the bigger question? Full-year 2024 and Q4 EBIT declined due to the Indian and Turkish markets.
Coincidentally, Turkey is home to the other main production facility of Elif, the previous major acquisition. A rather high price was paid for Elif, in light of the numbers, which at least in hindsight does not seem like a complete success.
I would personally see targeted acquisitions, similar to Zellwin Farms, as a better investment to address geographical coverage in profitable markets. Here, if I recall correctly, the CEO mentioned immediate profitability as one factor.
If no suitable acquisition target can be found at a reasonable price, the board may start share buybacks as early as autumn. At these prices, it seems like the most sensible option compared to a new acquisition similar to Elif.
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Antti has prepared a pre-company report on Huhtamäki as part of his late-night work; Huhtamäki will publish its report on Thursday, July 24.
We reiterate our buy recommendation for Huhtamäki and revise the company’s target price to 37.00 euros (previously 38.00 €) after slight currency-driven forecast adjustments. Earnings growth will be challenging for Huhtamäki in the near future, but the upside potential from its low valuation (2025e: P/E 13x) and dividend make the stock’s return expectation very attractive in our opinion. We believe Huhtamäki is a good stock pick for the current macroeconomic situation due to its global business diversification and defensive and local nature.
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- Revenue decreased by 3% to EUR 1,007.5 million (EUR 1,037.5 million)
- Comparable revenue growth was 0% at Group level
- Reported operating profit EUR 46.2 million (EUR 104.6 million); adjusted operating profit was EUR 103.1 million (EUR 105.5 million)
- Reported earnings per share EUR 0.20 (EUR 0.62); adjusted earnings per share was EUR 0.63 (EUR 0.63)
- The impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the Group’s revenue was EUR -34 million and on operating profit EUR -3 million
Well, today one can get cardboard cups cheaply.
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“We were able to complete the three-year, EUR 100 million efficiency program launched in 2023 faster than planned and achieved the targeted cost savings with lower-than-expected implementation costs. As part of the program, we carried out a reorganization in the Foodservice Packaging segment during the second quarter of 2025 to centralize production. As a result of this measure, we made a write-down of EUR 39 million.”
“Adjusted operating profit does not include items affecting comparability, which amounted to EUR -56.9 million (EUR -0.9 million). The largest item was a net write-down of EUR 39 million, which included contractual compensation. The write-down was related to the reorganization in the Foodservice Packaging segment, as production was centralized.”
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