Silver - Strategic metal of the 2020s

In addition to Boliden, Aurubis might be a decent recycling bet for future turbulence—and it’s not even very expensive yet. In my own portfolio, both are smoothing out volatility. This is perhaps more due to the refining perspective, as there aren’t exactly an excess of refiners in the West. A significant portion of Western copper also goes to China for processing, where the Chinese separate the silver from the copper concentrate and pay the mine a measly precious metal premium. One could imagine that, gradually, we would also be interested in refining our own copper.

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In my opinion, those who produce good content are:

CEOs worth listening to:

  • Ross Beaty (Pan American Silver, Equinox Gold)
  • Keith Neumeyer (First Majestic Silver)

Surprisingly good macro analysis from these guys as well, and of course regarding the situation of the mines, etc.

Best macro analyses from the analysis gurus (in my opinion):

  • Clive Thompson
  • Rick Rule
  • Don Durrett (all miners also ranked for free in his videos)
  • Michael Oliver
  • Mike Maloney
  • Lobo Tigre

Among explorers, the obvious world-class deposits have risen the most, but slightly smaller ones can still be had very cheaply. With these, it’s worth analyzing whether the expansion of mineral reserves has become predictable. As an example, Kootenay Silver: over 50 million ounces of silver already found (Columba project) and a fully funded 50,000-meter drilling program is underway. The stockwork ore body should be open in three directions. Market cap under 200 million CAD.

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I’ve become familiar with mining investing, for better or for worse. After the end of the last decade, I decided I wouldn’t touch these anymore (or would try to avoid them). But you’re right – promising mining companies are currently an excellent investment opportunity, and a 10x is entirely possible in many cases (and returns have been good over the last two years). However, the key to mining investing is timing your purchases correctly. In my opinion, the right time was last summer (silver mines – for gold, summer 2024).

Here are some silver companies:

Pan American Silver Corp

Year-to-date: 174%

6 months: 99.82 %

First Majestic Silver

Year-to-date: 217 %

6 months: 117 %

Endeavour Silver Corp

Year-to-date: 175 %

6 months: 109 %

Sotkamo Silver

Year-to-date: 65 %

6 months: 85 %

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The volatility is such that the faint-hearted might be terrified, but confidence is high that the direction will continue to be mostly upward. The system is just creaking and you need a strong stomach. Fortunately, you get used to these -5% and -10% days :smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

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Below is a comprehensive article on China’s measures regarding silver. This isn’t the first time it has used these same tools.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-launches-its-silver-weapon-on-jan-1-heres-what-that-means-for-prices-5c543123

The shared history of China and silver. The video is about three hours long, so get your snacks ready.

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Below is an article about how silver’s frantic surge to new records has started to unravel—it peaked at over $80 but quickly turned downward. According to the piece, this looks like the “beginning of the end” phase, where FOMO and momentum drive prices higher.

There are now fears that the next drop could be ugly if those who joined the rally late are forced to sell in a panic. The drivers behind this are, of course, profit-taking, general market stress, and the fact that the long-term story is different from short-term risks.

None of this means silver’s fundamental story is hollow. Structural factors are undeniably supportive, particularly on the supply side. Analysts who focus on Supply Limitations and Ongoing Market Deficits point out that Most silver is produced as a by‑product when other metals, such as copper, lead and zinc, are mined, which makes it harder for producers to respond quickly to price spikes by ramping up output. At the same time, demand from solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics continues to grow, creating a persistent market deficit that supports the case for higher average prices over the medium term.

That is why some strategists argue that, despite the recent turmoil, silver could still deliver its best returns since 1979 if investors are patient and disciplined. One such view, framed around how to invest in the white metal in the new year, suggests that silver’s 9–11 year cycle is entering a favorable phase and that the current volatility may be a prelude to strong multi‑year gains, a perspective embedded in Dec silver cycle analysis. The catch is that even bullish analysts stress the importance of staggered buying and risk management, precisely because the same forces that can propel silver higher can also turn a record spike into an ugly unwind when sentiment flips.

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Testing the $80 level again, up about 15 percent in a week.

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Over in the transport power solutions thread, there’s quite a lot of buzz regarding solid-state batteries. Technology is advancing rapidly. Someone there asked how one can invest in this. Well, those of us investing in silver miners know at least one answer to that question, as a lot of silver is needed for building the batteries, and the amount used isn’t really negotiable. Samsung already bought a mine in Mexico. I don’t remember if it was already mentioned here.

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/silver-storm-partners-with-samsung-to-reopen-mexico-silver-mine-2025-10-13

Then something negative as well. Since silver is starting to get expensive, Longi—a Chinese company with a significant market share in solar panels—is switching from silver to base metals.

And a comment on the piece posted by Alokas, saying that the silver market could undergo a shocking correction. A nice thought, surely a dream for the banks that have shorted it. It’s definitely worth selling this idea right now. If only there were one more chance to get out. During the last correction, I asked who would dare sell silver down to the 200-day moving average with these fundamentals. They didn’t dare; instead, it headed up from the 50-day moving average, despite what the analyst gurus claimed. Of course, everything is possible in this crazy market and you can sell paper however you like, but if the physical metal isn’t there, who would dare sell it very low again.

Finally, my latest purchase, Highlander Silver. A company heavily owned by the Lundin family and Eric Sprott bought Bear Creek, which was in financial trouble. Bear Creek has a silver deposit called Corani, one of the world’s largest and fully permitted. Highlander Silver’s market cap is around 600 million Canadian dollars. Now financing isn’t an obstacle when the owner has big money behind them. To my ears, 6 billion CAD would sound like a better market cap sometime later. Do your own math if you’re interested.

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Highlander is indeed an interesting case now. Bear Creek was really cheap in the summer when the price was under 0.2 CAD. Then after a 4x hype, it still offered a buying opportunity at 0.25 CAD. Before this Highlander deal, Royal Gold (Sandstorm) owned 20% and Equinox 11% of Bear Creek; I had both in my portfolio, so I passed on buying :smiley:

My newest acquisition is Hercules Metals. Formerly named Hercules Silver, but in 2023 they hit what looks like a major copper deposit. They also have really good silver grades in the area from old drillings. And there probably aren’t too many of those copper deposits around either. This is located in Idaho, USA, and near companies like Rio Tinto, USAS, Hecla… Barrick seems to own 12%. Mcap approx. 200M. If I could decide, I’d go drill those old silver spots now :smiley: But as far as I know, the goal is to release a copper resource in 2026.

Regarding that news, copper will likely play a major role if silver is replaced in panels. I should start looking more seriously at copper producers as well…

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IMG_6577Physical silver market.

In Singapore, the sell side is completely empty. It has been tight before, but I haven’t seen anything like this yet. It’s already 9 PM there, but something should still be visible on the sides.

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As I understand it, this works by raising the price until sellers are found. Then suddenly, the price gaps up. Does anyone have more specific information?

Normally there is always some price there, but lately the order book in the East has started to thin out.

This service only shows these. In Shanghai, the price has been several dollars higher for some time already.

Yesterday, the CNA news agency (Singapore) had a report on this on YouTube. So, silver supplies have become very scarce in that region, but industry still needs it and there aren’t really any alternatives. Below is the video link.

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For industrials, they dont care, they need the silver. They will pay more!

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https://x.com/Macrobysunil/status/2008953197466145154

As I said earlier, short sellers still need one more opportunity to get out.

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If I understood the tweet correctly, it says that silver’s “paper markets” and reality are on a collision course.

In other words, the price is being artificially suppressed, but real physical silver (the kind you can actually hold in your hand) is being sold much more expensively in many countries (e.g., China $128/oz, Japan 120).

According to the tweet, the “sell wall” is pure theater; inventories are depleting and eventually the paper price will collapse while the physical price skyrockets. :thinking:

https://x.com/GodsBurnt/status/2009830848330125409
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IMG_3713

”But technical analysis says you should sell” :grin:

Clive Thompson can explain better.

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Personally, I prefer what Oliver has to say — he’s been quite bullish throughout this two-year rally. According to him, you just need to stay on board right now, because this isn’t a normal rise and usually those final months produce the biggest returns. Below is yesterday’s interview.

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I’ve been watching Oliver’s videos, and they’ve been spot on and really good. Clive usually covers what’s happening in the market right now, and Oliver provides in-depth analysis of the silver market based on fundamentals, but Clive is also of the same opinion. These guys complement each other, in my opinion.

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It can just be a bit difficult to know in advance when those “final months” are underway. And that’s what makes this whole thing challenging :slight_smile:

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