# HKFoods as an investment
**URL:** https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433
**Category:** Osakkeet
**Tags:** hk-foods, hk-scan
**Created:** [November 11, 2019, 5:13pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433 "2019-11-11T17:13:31Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 30
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [April 28, 2026, 7:51pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/623 "2026-04-28T19:51:38Z")
**Kaisa** and **Pauli** have prepared a pre-earnings report on HKFoods :), as the company will publish its Q1 report on Wednesday, May 6. 🙂
_We expect revenue to have turned to growth and adjusted operating profit to have improved from the comparison period, supported by operational efficiency and a better sales mix. However, we have slightly lowered our earnings forecasts for the current year due to cost pressures and typical delays in pricing. Based on our forecasts assuming moderate earnings growth, the stock’s valuation (2026e adj. EV/EBIT: 9x) is neutral, and the expected return on a one-year horizon remains sluggish in our view. Consequently, we are lowering our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Accumulate) and our target price to EUR 1.70 (prev. EUR 2.00), reflecting the forecast changes._
> **[HKFoods Q1'26 -ennakko: Odotuksissa maltillista tuloskasvua - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/research/hkfoods-q126-ennakko-odotuksissa-maltillista-tuloskasvua)**
>
> Odotamme liikevaihdon kääntyneen kasvuun ja oikaistun liiketuloksen parantuneen vertailukaudesta operatiivisen tehokkuuden ja paremman myyntijakauman tukemana.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [May 6, 2026, 10:18am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/624 "2026-05-06T10:18:33Z")
Here are **Kaisa’s** quick comments on this morning’s result. 🙂
_HKFoods published its Q1 results this morning, which slightly exceeded our expectations regarding both revenue and earnings. Good momentum in the retail and food service channels supported revenue, and the company’s efficiency measures successfully offset increased costs. As expected, the company reiterated its guidance pointing towards an earnings improvement for the current year. Overall, we consider the report relatively neutral, especially considering the rising costs. HKFoods’ briefing, held at 10:00 AM, can be followed [here](https://www.inderes.fi/videos/hkfoods-oyj-webcast-q126)._
> **[HKFoods Q1’26 -pikakommentti: Tulos ylitti lievästi odotuksemme - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/hkfoods-q126-pikakommentti-tulos-ylitti-lievasti-odotuksemme)**
>
> Vähittäiskaupan ja food servicen hyvä vire tuki liikevaihtoa, ja yhtiön tehostamistoimet kompensoivat onnistuneesti kohonneita kustannuksia.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [May 6, 2026, 2:42pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/625 "2026-05-06T14:42:36Z")
**Kaisa** interviewed HKFoods’ CEO **Juha Ruohola** regarding Q1 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/embed/NDo0xTCHhlc
**Topics:**
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Return to growth path
00:59 Efficiency measures are working
02:24 Development of the sales mix
03:12 Changes in demand
04:16 Beef prices and availability
05:54 Cost pressures and pricing cycles
08:00 Drivers for achieving guidance
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [May 6, 2026, 8:08pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/626 "2026-05-06T20:08:03Z")
**Kaisa** and **Pauli** have published a new company report on HKFoods following the Q1 results 🙂
_HKFoods’ streak of earnings improvements continued in Q1. Operationally, the result was largely in line with our expectations, as strong momentum in retail and food service supported revenue growth, and efficiency measures compensated for increased costs. As expected, the company reiterated its guidance for the current year, and we kept our forecasts practically unchanged. Based on our forecasts assuming moderate earnings growth, the stock’s valuation (2026e: adj. EV/EBIT 9x) is neutral, and the expected return on a one-year horizon remains dull in our books. Consequently, we reiterate our reduce recommendation and target price of EUR 1.70._
> **[HKFoods Q1'26: Tulosparannusputki sai jatkoa - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/research/hkfoods-q126-tulosparannusputki-sai-jatkoa)**
>
> HKFoodsin tulosparannusputki sai jatkoa Q1:llä, mutta kustannuspaineet ja hinnoittelun viiveet pitävät kuluvan vuoden tulosparannuksen maltillisena.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [July 29, 2026, 5:03am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/627 "2026-07-29T05:03:22Z")
Here are **Pauli’s** preliminary comments ahead of HK’s earnings report next Wednesday 🙂
> We expect the result to strengthen compared to the comparison period, partly due to the barbecue season, which started early thanks to the weather. The cost pressure caused by the conflict in the Middle East has likely not had a very significant impact yet.
> **[HKFoods Q2'26 -ennakko: Aikainen grillaussesonki antanee myötätuulta - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/hkfoods-q226-ennakko-aikainen-grillaussesonki-antanee-myotatuulta)**
>
> Hyvä grillauskysyntä jättänee Lähi-Idän konfliktin varjoonsa lyhyellä aikavälillä.
---
### Author:  [@Jankkeri](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Jankkeri)
#### Post date: [July 30, 2026, 4:26pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/628 "2026-07-30T16:26:32Z")
Most likely we’ll see a drop tomorrow. It also seems like the growth outlook for the coming years will have to be completely revised.
> **[HK Foods: ASF-epäily pysäytti viennin ja uhkaa sulkea Kiinan ja Japanin...](https://www.maaseuduntulevaisuus.fi/maatalous/6b5ca79e-66f7-4d7c-8818-72ec37b7d996)**
>
> HK Foods on käynnistänyt valmiustoimet afrikkalaisen sikaruton vuoksi ja keskeyttänyt sianlihan viennin. Toimitusjohtaja Juha Ruohola arvioi, että vientikielto tärkeille Aasian markkinoille voi kestää vuosia.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [July 31, 2026, 8:34am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/629 "2026-07-31T08:34:01Z")
Here are **Pauli’s** comments regarding the African swine fever.
> The African swine fever found in Finnish wild boars has a negative impact on the export opportunities of the domestic meat industry. An interruption in pork exports to Asia could reduce the companies’ operating profits by an estimated 3-5%.
> **[Atria ja HKFoods: Sikaruton löytyminen heikentää vientituloja - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/atria-ja-hkfoods-sikaruton-loytyminen-heikentaa-vientituloja)**
>
> Viennin keskeytyminen voisi heikentää jalostajien tuloksia arviolta 3-5 %.
---
### Author:  [@kimmonev](https://forum.inderes.com/u/kimmonev)
#### Post date: [August 2, 2026, 7:33pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/630 "2026-08-02T19:33:11Z")
In my opinion, a 3-5% drop in earnings seems very small. The parts of the pig that were sold to Asia do not sell elsewhere, which almost completely erodes operating profit. Secondly, the portion of the meat that cannot be sold to Asia and for which there is consumer demand will be sold in Finland, as there is no other quick alternative. This means a price reduction in pork prices for consumers. This, in turn, lowers the demand for beef and poultry, which means their prices must also be lowered. I suspect that the earnings drop will be greater than the estimated 3-5%.
For HKFoods, this is even more severe as the debt-heavy balance sheet and financial covenants might be at risk. We have now sold off Sweden and the Baltics, and there is nothing easily left to sell, so a share issue remains the only option if financial covenants were to be in jeopardy. This would have to be done at a very low price, which would further dilute the value of the share.
---
### Author:  [@Makex](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Makex)
#### Post date: [August 2, 2026, 7:58pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/631 "2026-08-02T19:58:04Z")
A strange comment? “I suspect, I think, if…” no figures or facts to support your opinions? Ruohola from HK said that the company could lose 10m in sales. Analysts are predicting a 3-5% decline in earnings. And in Kimmonev’s opinion, this will lead to covenants being breached and a share issue?? Good grief…
---
### Author:  [@kimmonev](https://forum.inderes.com/u/kimmonev)
#### Post date: [August 2, 2026, 8:03pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/632 "2026-08-02T20:03:30Z")
A 10m sales drop can be really bad on its own if it involves cuts that cannot be sold in Finland. Sales to Asia have had very good margins because it has been possible to sell trotters and other parts there that fetch almost nothing in Finland. The 2025 net profit was 14.2m euros, so if, for example, 80% of the sales drop went straight to the bottom line, the net profit would weaken significantly. Indirect effects will come on top of that if there are declines in beef and broiler meat prices. These are difficult to estimate in advance and will emerge slowly over the course of the following year.
---
### Author:  [@Dromedary](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Dromedary)
#### Post date: [August 2, 2026, 8:07pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/633 "2026-08-02T20:07:45Z")
Your pork exports to China already started to decline last year when they imposed import tariffs on Europe (there’s been a bit of a back-and-forth between the automotive industry and food production). There have been mentions of this in the Q3 reports since last year.
---
### Author:  [@Dromedary](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Dromedary)
#### Post date: [August 2, 2026, 8:10pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/634 "2026-08-02T20:10:31Z")
Here is the MT article about these tariff changes; in September 2025, a fairly substantial 62% tariff was slapped on parties that did not cooperate.
> **[Kiina asettaa EU:n sianlihalle jopa 62 prosentin tullit](https://www.maaseuduntulevaisuus.fi/maatalous/85224709-b967-4459-820c-006b7a2244d2)**
>
> Tulleja pidetään vastaiskuna EU:n asettamille sähköautotulleille. Kiina kamppailee kotimaisen sianlihan ylitarjonnan kanssa.
---
### Author:  [@Farseer](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Farseer)
#### Post date: [August 5, 2026, 6:17am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/635 "2026-08-05T06:17:20Z")
The analyst managed to publish their comments first, but here is my own HKFoods quarterly video:
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r-3os8s52s)
The analyst’s quick comment can be found here:
> **[HKFoods Q2’26 -pikakommentti: Hyvä raportti ilman suuria yllätyksiä - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/hkfoods-q226-pikakommentti-hyva-raportti-ilman-suuria-yllatyksia)**
>
> Tulos parantui hieman odotuksiamme enemmän ja ohjeistus säilyi ennallaan.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [August 5, 2026, 1:16pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/637 "2026-08-05T13:16:55Z")
**Pauli** had HKFoods CEO **Juha Ruohola** on the hot seat regarding Q2 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/embed/AqOab_UN8ho
**Topics:**
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Factors behind the favorable development
01:42 Impact of African swine fever
02:33 Opening of the Chinese and Japanese markets
03:10 Export of products
04:06 Investments in the Forssa production facility
05:29 Efficiency program and growth
06:26 Passing cost pressures on to sales prices
07:15 Guidance and outlook for the rest of the year
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [August 6, 2026, 7:47am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/638 "2026-08-06T07:47:33Z")
Here is the company report from **Pauli** following the company’s Q2 🙂
> The realization of the 2026 guidance, which anticipates rising earnings, seems quite secure based on a stronger-than-expected H1. However, we forecast that earnings growth will stall in H2, partly due to the export effects caused by swine fever and a potential intensification of cost inflation. In the big picture, the company still seems to be finding ways to strengthen profitability, against which the current valuation level appears attractive. We are upgrading our recommendation to “add” (prev. “reduce”) and raising our target price to 1.80 euros (prev. 1.70 €).
## **Growth across the board, earnings slightly stronger than expected**
> **[HKFoods Q2'26: Pienikin tuloskasvu ajaisi kurssia ylemmäs - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/research/hkfoods-q226-pienikin-tuloskasvu-ajaisi-kurssia-ylemmas)**
>
> Sikaruton vaikutukset jäävät näillä näkymin maltillisiksi.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [September 2, 2026, 5:06am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/639 "2026-09-02T05:06:21Z")
Here are **Pauli’s** comments on the impacts of African swine fever on HKFoods (HooKoo) and Atria.
> Atria’s and HKFoods’ results have been on an upward trend in recent years, but the presence of African swine fever in wild boars in Finland hampers the companies’ export opportunities and increases risks regarding the continuation of earnings growth. In a positive scenario, the swine fever infection zone would not expand beyond its current state, and Finland would manage to negotiate regionalization agreements with China, allowing exports from other regions to continue. However, the baseline assumption is that sales to the profitable Chinese and Japanese markets will remain frozen for the next few years, in which case the return expectation for the shares would only moderately exceed the required return.
> **[Atria ja HKFoods: Sikaruton tuomat vientirajoitukset piinavat muutoin hyvin...](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/atria-ja-hkfoods-sikaruton-tuomat-vientirajoitukset-piinavat-muutoin-hyvin-kehittyvia-yhtioita)**
>
> Sikaruton aiheuttamien vientirajoitusten kestoa on mahdotonta arvioida.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [September 8, 2026, 5:45am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/640 "2026-09-08T05:45:47Z")
Here are **Pauli’s** comments on how HK is considering issuing a new corporate bond. 🙂
> On Monday, HKFoods announced that it is considering the issuance of a new bond to refinance its current €90 million bond maturing next summer. We estimate that refinancing will enable savings in financing costs, as the company’s financial position has strengthened in recent years following its earnings turnaround. The situation has been known, and the announcement therefore does not cause pressure to change our forecasts—at least not before precise information on the bond’s pricing is available. In addition to refinancing, the company also secured new bank loans, which we estimate will provide additional flexibility for liquidity and investments.
> **[HKFoods: Velan uudelleenrahoitus mahdollistaa säästöjä rahoituskuluihin -...](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/hkfoods-velan-uudelleenrahoitus-mahdollistaa-saastoja-rahoituskuluihin)**
>
> Jälleenrahoittamisen lisäksi yhtiö solmi aiempaa suurempia pankkirahoitusjärjestelyitä.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [September 17, 2026, 5:28am UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/641 "2026-09-17T05:28:13Z")
Here are **Pauli’s** comments on HooKoo’s new bond. 🙂
> On Wednesday, HKFoods published a [listing prospectus](https://www.inderes.fi/releases/hkfoods-oyj-jattaa-listalleottohakemuksen-ja-julkaisee-listalleottoesitteen-90-miljoonan-euron-joukkovelkakirjalainalle) for its EUR 90 million senior secured bond, the issuance of which it announced earlier in September. The bond matures in September 2030, and its floating interest rate is the three-month Euribor plus a 3.6 percent margin. The margin of the new bond is significantly more favorable than the 7.5 percent margin of the company’s previous bond maturing in the summer of 2027, which reflects the company’s strengthened financial position in recent years following its earnings turnaround. We had already included the expectation of a substantial decrease in financial expenses in our forecasts, so the news does not cause any essential need for changes to them.
> **[HKFoods: Uusi 90 MEUR:n laina tuo tuntuvat korkosäästöt - Inderes](https://www.inderes.fi/analyst-comments/hkfoods-uusi-90-meurn-laina-tuo-tuntuvat-korkosaastot)**
>
> Olemme ennakoineet korkotason laskun jo aiemmissa ennusteissamme.
---
### Author:  [@Sijoittaja-alokas](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Sijoittaja-alokas)
#### Post date: [September 25, 2026, 8:45pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/642 "2026-09-25T20:45:07Z")
@kilpikonna has made a video about HooKoo 🙂
> HKFoods distributed 14 cents per share to its owners, but it wasn’t a dividend.
> Earnings have improved, the share price doubled, and the company just got its loan at half price.
> Yet the Quality Screen (Laatuseula) gives it 26 points out of a hundred. In this video, I go through why.
>
> I ran HKFoods through my own Quality Screen (Laatuseula). Good news for a company doesn’t automatically mean a point on the quality metric.
[ ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SJFqjPnqIw)
---
### Author:  [@Dromedary](https://forum.inderes.com/u/Dromedary)
#### Post date: [September 26, 2026, 2:55pm UTC](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433/643 "2026-09-26T14:55:44Z")
It might be that I missed the situation for 2026 in the video. That return on invested capital (or as the company calls it, “committed”) is already 8% based on the first half-year figures (in 2025 at the same time it was 6.3% and the full year was the 6.6% mentioned in the video).
The company has indeed gone through major & heavy changes, but you have to turn the calendar back to the early 2000s when HK was somewhat similar to what it is now. Back then, they were able to achieve a 10-12% return on invested capital. So, of course, not super amazing, but it’s possible that this former level will be reached again, along with the group’s current target level of over 12%.
[Previous page](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433.md?page=29)
[Next page](https://forum.inderes.com/t/hkfoods-sijoituskohteena/2433.md?page=31)