In the conference call, according to Dudum, it’s a one-time drop. It is related to changes in the sexual health segment in the “treatment mix” and commercial semaglutide users shifting to other alternatives.
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This time, the raffle ticket system didn’t quite work. The result was good, but many felt the guidance perhaps failed. (Though not in my opinion.)
Hims has progressed in its business strategy to a new phase, which is more stable and less risky than before. It is therefore expected that the stock may no longer be as volatile in the future.
Then, if one considers the guidance for 2025, it is quite sandbagged.
- The $40 price is quite well in line with the company’s guidance regarding both revenue and earnings.
- $40 is not in line with the fact that Hims has always exceeded guidance.
- $40 is not in line with the growth outlook for the coming years.
- Purchases made at $40 will provide a good return with the company’s 2030 vision (Which Vision also feels very sandbagged, by the way).
Longer-term things I am following in the company are:
- CTO recruitment and AI development (here there seems to be technological debt or at least things the CEO would wish to be more developed than they currently are)
- How popular Novo’s products become on the platform. This is interesting because Hims intends to be primarily a platform company in the future, and the Novo collaboration will certainly test whether such a business vision is realistic.
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I think this year’s guidance is no longer as conservative as in previous years, because now the biggest growth driver is out of play, as hands are tied regarding obesity drugs. Also, giving the 2030 guidance is a small red flag for me, and I can’t help but think that they want to shift focus away from this year - is it because they couldn’t raise the forecast for this year this time?
Recruitments and the sale of other manufacturers’ products on the platform are, IMO, completely irrelevant to Hims’ valuation. The Novo collaboration primarily benefits Novo, if anyone benefits at all - margins for the intermediary are non-existent.
I still see potential in the company, but for me, the valuation is too stretched to be appealing. Q1 was as good as it was supposed to be, but the next quarters might not be. Also, CAC is still very high, with marketing costs at about 40 percent of revenue. For me, the biggest questions now are where growth will come from in the next quarters, at what cost, and with what margin.
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quite crazy trading volume relative to market capitalization
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The stock was shorted by an estimated 30%, today, according to the above, an incomprehensible 30% of the market cap changed hands (!) and the stock is up 15% right now. One would almost think that at least some of the shorts wanted to close.
To the matter itself: the result was, at least in my opinion, guaranteed good quality, nothing to complain about in the guidance, and the train continues on its tracks as it should. So I will continue to sit on my hands despite the crazy rollercoaster. GLTA. 
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An update from Hims House’s Discord regarding short positions. If I understand correctly, shorts have been both reduced and increased during the day. The image was sent around 9 PM.
I wouldn’t dare to short in this situation, quite a gamble 
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The short squeeze seems to have started. Soon, those seeking quick profits can take their gains; last time, it went up +$68. Now the company generates more cash flow, and the number of shorts seems to be higher now, if I recall correctly. There was a recoil after the last squeeze, so that could be a suitable spot for me to add more. If someone has a tracking position or isn’t sure if they want to invest in the company, now would be a great time to do their homework. The market reacts very strongly to everything, in one direction or another, aiming for quick profits.
The short-term guidance was a bit soft, but there are two factors in the background that create uncertainty around the company’s Q2. The seasonal period was utilized in Q1, and how to convert compounded GLP-1 customers to new, different price-tier medications. Management guided conservatively.
The long-term guidance was strong, but I don’t feel I can add much more to that BTD video. All in all, very impressive work from Hers 
. Hims House has released another strong episode on Q1 results. New investors should watch those Hims House episodes in addition to this thread.
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How should that table be interpreted? It’s not familiar to me.
I have tentatively agreed with “Dividend Engineer” Jesse Viljanen that we will talk about Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers. We were both at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting over the weekend. I don’t regret this trip at all, even though the beginning of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster! 
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Finally, information was obtained on the share of GLP-1 revenue, which was $230M, or 39% of total revenue. Of this sum, a “significant majority” consists of personalized doses, meaning that in the short term, an estimated $125M of GLP-1 revenue is secure. However, in the longer term, it may not be possible to sell “personalized” doses at such a high volume, even after the shortage is over.
Liraglutide or Wegovy did not yet contribute in Q1. Furthermore, considering that approximately $35M in revenue from previous copy sales will still be recognized in Q2, it is very possible that GLP-1 revenue will exceed $200M in Q2 as well. If personalized GLP-1 sales grow by 10% MoM in Q2, then liraglutide and Wegovy would only need to contribute $27.5M in Q2. Especially for Wegovy sales, significant marketing investments have been made, so the ramp-up could be rapid. For liraglutide, I do not believe the company can achieve any reasonable volumes, at least at the current price point, as long as smaller competitors sell prescription products cheaply.
Ex-GLP-1 business also continued to grow by almost 30% YoY. Based on the Q2 guidance, it can be safely assumed that its growth will continue along the same curve. Thus, the base scenario for Q2 revenue at this point is $560M, which is $10M above the upper end of the guidance. Continued MoM growth would require larger volumes for Wegovy, as the growth of the core business is unlikely to accelerate during Q2, as there may be small dips in the ED business. Management warned that instead of Sildenafil, they are trying to sell daily combination tablets, which could have a negative short-term impact.
No new updates were received on the TRT and HRT schedule. I personally expected the release to be updated for Q3 already. On the other hand, liraglutide was also supposed to be launched by the end of H1, although it eventually came out in March. If the schedule is similarly sandbagged now, the release would still be in September.
New information also emerged about the February acquisitions. $39.1M was paid for the acquired peptide facility, and it is apparently this one located in California. If growing this fast, it certainly makes sense to buy facilities ready-made with a small premium if it saves even a year.
Only $5.1M was paid for the home testing laboratory, even though it probably raised the market value by a billion on the acquisition date. At least in that case, significant value was created, at least in the market’s opinion.
I don’t understand the new long-term target. The EBITDA-% would only be 20%, even though the goal is still for the gross margin to be around 75% by 2030. Will the marketing budget really be $3,000M in 2030, or where will the money be sunk? More likely, the profitability potential is also greatly sandbagged.
It is also understandable that the full-year guidance was not raised. Considering the $100M dip in GLP-1 prescription product sales, exceeding the guidance already requires strong continued growth. Only if Wegovy starts selling big can the guidance be raised in connection with the Q3 report. Otherwise, I do not believe the guidance will rise for the entire year, because typically, the upper end should be exceeded by at least five percent.
There is a lot of talk about a short squeeze, but I don’t believe in it. The daily volume is greater than the float and about 3x the entire short float, so positions could be closed at any time, even simultaneously, and the price movement would still not be distinguishable from normal volatility. The recent rise is due to the market finally starting to price in a small possibility that revenue will grow faster than the market due to new product areas. Still, the price does not assume that revenue would even reach half of the 2030 target.
But the short thesis is also still valid. Still, every quarter, an estimated +$125M of “personalized” GLP-1 doses are sold, which could cease to exist at any time. If they were lost, the net impact would, of course, be smaller, as some could flexibly shift to other products, but it would still be a big dip in growth. The share of revenue is decreasing day by day, but that dark cloud is still on the horizon.
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Looks like they got exactly the person they were looking for.
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Funding for growth
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Once more for good measure
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Did I calculate correctly that if the entire convertible debt capital were converted into shares, it would cause about 5% dilution to current shareholders..?
The conversion price is $70.xx, and this will happen earliest starting 11/2029, and of course, part of the loan can also be paid in cash. Until then, HIMS gets a zero-coupon loan of $870,000,000 to finance growth. The question is, why is the price only $52?
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Assume that a typical convertible bond would pay a 6% annual coupon rate (no idea what the available coupon rate for HIMS would be).
Under the current arrangement, the share price needs to be $92 at the end of 2029 (after dilution) for the arrangement to yield the lender the same IRR as an annual 6% coupon rate. Since the arrangement involves more risk for the lender, they naturally expect a premium for that.
If the alternative 6% coupon rate I assumed were actually higher, at which money could be raised from the market (which is quite possible), the financiers would expect the price to be even higher than the previous one at the end of 2029.
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I also thought that some 6% could be the interest rate paid by HIMS for a “normal” 5-year loan. Looks like we’re using the same calculator 
. Of course, we don’t yet know how well the loan will sell…
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I’m sure everything offered will be taken, given that yesterday’s announcement was immediately doubled the next day. Hims is now such a hot company that everyone wants in one way or another.
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This kind of info was shared in Hims housing discord:
https://x.com/Hann3s_H/status/1920769618664165510
Note that the author is just an anonymous user on X, but if the facts are correct, Hims received this money on quite favorable terms.
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Good link, and I mostly share the same thoughts, some of which were already mentioned there
It’s a good situation in that the war doesn’t miss one man. So even without a CTO, HIMS has “firepower.” But that CTO news + 800 million in additional funding + smart leadership is an unbeatable combination.
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