Good morning, I’ve been mostly listening in this thread lately. Hims has indeed become more widely known to both customers and investors, with the Weight Loss category being the most significant driver. However, it’s been great to follow really high-quality comments and good discussion. To be honest, at some point I felt like it was just @karhulalainen and I talking, but luckily that has changed.
Hims has also progressed a lot, although it has been very predictable. The most important factors as an investment case, in my opinion, are 1) a huge market to eat into, which is also growing strongly, and 2) quality leadership.
For my part, this has meant the first tenbagger for one of my purchase batches at $4.2, although it was only a few hundred units. But it has also meant my portfolio growing to six figures by a long shot. Although there have been messages here about good buying and selling points, which some have undoubtedly used to make good returns, I personally learned from Tecnotree’s rise from 0.5€ → 1.7€ in 2021 that you shouldn’t trade rising prices if you don’t really know how. You just lose the best rising days, as they come so suddenly. So I’ve skipped it, luckily! I’ve just been holding. Another “mistake” I’ve made is not taking advantage of the market’s free lunch, i.e., diversification, but instead I’ve always been all-in on Hims, except for some small tests (Tecnotree, Fastly, StoneCo, Clear Secure) which I fortunately managed to sell before losses and put those into Hims as well.
Where is Hims now and where is it going? Is it time to take the money out and move on to the next one? Originally, I found Hims when I was looking for a tenbagger. All the ingredients seemed to be there, and now it has materialized. Currently, when I look at the company, I still see a huge market ahead, and as I previously estimated, growth indeed seems to be accelerating. Whether it’s permanent, I don’t know, but nothing indicates that growth would slow down to <50% y-o-y levels anytime soon. This combines the characteristics of a platform economy, service sales, and a product house. The drivers of growth are 1) the growth of the market under the current offering 2) growth caused by new product categories 3) geographical growth. At the same time, a future of tens of millions of subscribers and a 20% EDITDA margin are predicted. And these do not seem unrealistic in any way. Then, when I think about how the market could value such a company, I could guess off the top of my head that we are at least in the $100B class. And that again means a tenbagger compared to the current situation, so I intend to stay on board.
At the same time, the title of this thread has become outdated, and we should come up with something for it. How about sending me private suggestions for names, and we’ll make a poll in the thread?
. I wish everyone perseverance with HIMS’s big stock price fluctuations.
Last week, I sold a portion of the first batch of purchases for an amount equivalent to about three months’ salary. 5/6 remained in the portfolio, and I intend to hold them for quite a long time. Although the business still has significant growth potential (the story hasn’t even properly started yet), the rapid price increase is a bit concerning. Frankly, I find it difficult to come up with reasons why it would significantly increase from its current level. Of course, I don’t mean that it couldn’t happen; the market doesn’t always follow all rules of logic. But do you see any justifications for a continued price increase?
