From X
https://x.com/illerintwit/status/1900936050622558268?s=46
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Well, of course not. But for example, in Finland, if defense appropriations have to be significantly increased, it comes at the expense of something else. Then, if consumption needs to be cut, it’s quite quickly, for example, the sauna rather than food and medicine. And the more one reads about things, the more confusing the situation in the USA becomes. IF growth in the USA were to stop, would there be enough growth elsewhere to justify Harvia’s current price? I’m just looking for those risks here now, so that the discussion isn’t just about the wonderfulness of sauna. And yes, I also like to go to the sauna, and I have a Harvia wood-fired Legend at home.
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David Ahonen, Harvia’s Director for Asia, Pacific, Middle East, and Africa, has sold 7,000 shares of the Muurame-based listed company.
He still has over 92,000 shares left in his portfolio.
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Shares out of one pocket and into another.
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Recently, on Yle’s regional news on TV1, Päivi Juolahti from Harvia was commenting on the Bara Bada Bastu phenomenon.
Harvia and the Central Finnish sauna association Sauna From Finland are seeking visibility for sauna bathing, perhaps even in Basel, Switzerland, in connection with the Eurovision Song Contest.
Juolahti was excited, and they are taking the matter seriously from a marketing perspective, as they should. This KAJ’s activity and visibility is no small matter. The program was at 9:53 PM on TV1 Yle Uutiset Uutis-Suomi, it might be found on Areena…
Edit, from the 4:40 mark
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Danske Bank published its updated view on Harvia. The recommendation remains at BUY, the target price rises to EUR 53.00 (previous: EUR 52.00). 
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An article produced by Yle (+ news recording) on the same topic also seemed to be available.
Sweden’s Eurovision song is perhaps the best thing for the sauna business in a long time – sauna viewing parties are being planned worldwide
The popularity of Sweden’s Eurovision song is also boosting the reputation of saunas worldwide. Finnish companies want to leverage the phenomenon for business.
Päivi Juolahti, Marketing and Brand Director at Harvia, a manufacturer of sauna heaters and saunas, is pleased that Sweden’s Eurovision song has raised awareness of saunas and sauna bathing outside Finland.
Sauna from Finland, a business network founded 15 years ago in Central Finland, has received numerous inquiries since the Vöyri-based band KAJ won Sweden’s Eurovision qualifiers.
The messages urge the network to market the Finnish sauna with full force now.
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Somehow it feels like Trump’s tariffs will be a difficult issue for Harvia as well as the entire industry in the short term. They will inevitably raise prices (unless margins are compromised) and a higher price level reduces demand.
In the long run, Harvia is well-positioned in the US market relative to its competitors due to its local production, which improves the company’s standing relative to competitors. But in the short term, trouble is ahead.
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Now the tariffs are known; China received higher tariffs than the EU. It will be interesting to see what this means from the perspective of sauna heater exports. And whether this has now provided an impetus to start manufacturing sauna heaters in the United States. And what this means from the perspective of the competitive landscape.
It would be interesting to hear your opinions, both from analysts and forum members.
My gut feeling is that in the short term, this is a setback, but in the longer term, it could improve Harvia’s competitiveness in the US market. It’s possible that the next few quarters will see lower margins until the situation is under control again. But these are just rough estimates.
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Tariffs can change, be abolished multiple times as whims of the Stable Genius and as negotiation results. Try making strategic decisions as a business leader in that situation.
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Below is the Harvia section from this morning’s tariff comment blast. In response to @xlat regarding sauna heater manufacturing in the USA: If volumes grow large enough, the company could very well start producing traditional sauna heaters in the USA as well. Trump’s erratic policy might not significantly affect this, but it is certainly one reason to reconsider the matter if EU tariffs appear to be more permanent. Even competitors do not have significant traditional sauna heater production in the USA, so in this respect, Harvia is not in a weaker position than its competitors.
Harvia
North America, primarily the USA, is Harvia’s largest market area, accounting for 35% of the company’s revenue in 2024. Harvia’s main product in the USA is complete saunas, which it manufactures locally. Similarly, the manufacturing of steam products acquired last year is local. As we have commented previously, wood raw material is also imported from Canada, and potential tariffs on these have already increased raw material prices for Harvia. The company does not have sauna heater manufacturing in the USA; they are imported from either China or Finland. However, compared to its competitors, Harvia has more local manufacturing, so tariffs should not weaken Harvia’s competitive position. We believe the company can largely compensate for the effects of tariffs by raising sales prices. In our opinion, a more central question for Harvia is whether the strong demand trend for saunas will continue despite price increases and a general weakening of consumer demand.
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Spotted on the Instagram story of Canadian Connor McDavid’s wife, who is titled the world’s best ice hockey player 
McDavid is known for his passionate approach to recovery from exertion, and leaves no stone unturned. It’s good advertising to see a Harvia sauna heater specifically in the couple’s home! Ice hockey players’ private lives and spouses are generally followed with a particularly keen eye in Canada.
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Harvia’s CEO Matias Järnefelt states in today’s Keski-Suomalainen that Harvia is in a good situation. 70% of the US turnover comes from local production, and if necessary, production can be transferred from the Chinese factory to Muurame, where things are moving fast. Partially even in three shifts.
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Indeed, but IF the global economy slides into recession because of Trump’s tariffs, then how could this benefit Harvia?
What if it turns out like in the corona crisis, that people start investing in their homes instead of travel, etc.?
Back then, due to stimulus measures and reduced travel, households suddenly had significant capital to spend money on what they could. Now it seems that the economy is being driven into a recession, and with everything getting more expensive, where will that extra money for such consumption come from?
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Tariffs are still a very uncertain matter. The current administration handles things poorly in the sense that politics seems to lack predictability and things change very quickly. In practice, tariffs can last and change in any way between now and 4 years from now, after which the president will at least change. Of course, even a change of president does not automatically mean the end of the trade war, but perhaps predictability would at least improve. The American administration’s purpose is indeed to encourage companies to invest in America, but in practice, making such an investment decision has been made very difficult for company decision-makers due to the lack of visibility into the future.
In Harvia’s case, I think it’s clear that at some point, sauna heaters will be manufactured on the US continent. This can happen organically or inorganically through an acquisition. An expansion decision cannot be made solely based on a tariff decision, as Harvia also lacks visibility into the continuity of tariffs. The current overcapacity should weigh more heavily in the balance. Revenue is still below 2021 levels despite inflation. Investments were also made in the Muurame factory around that time, so there should be plenty of unused capacity left, or at least it can be increased fairly easily. Based on this, it can be estimated that there is no direct need to increase sauna heater production yet.
Unnecessary additional investment carries significant risks, especially when considering the globally impacting recession risk, which is a consequence of the shock caused by tariffs. For example, the case of Kempower, which is paying a hefty price for investments in overcapacity. Would it be wiser for Harvia to sit on its hands and wait for the situation to clarify?
Yes, and not just in the United States, but globally as well. A market economy has the characteristic that dominant market leaders usually emerge as winners from recessions, depressions, and special situations. Changes in the market environment also affect competitors. However, it is important to remember that this is not automatic. Benefiting requires correct strategic decisions and depends on many factors, such as the nature and extent of the disruption, industry structure, the company’s own strategy and ability to adapt, and the regulatory environment. Measured absolutely, even a dominant company can suffer significant losses during difficult times, and it is precisely in these situations that even large moats have crumbled.
A few characteristics and competitive advantages come to mind that market leaders, and to some extent Harvia, possess. The most significant of these are financial resilience, economies of scale and bargaining power, market share growth, acquisition opportunities, investment capability, and customers’ “Flight to Safety.”
Larger, market-dominant companies typically have stronger balance sheets, better access to financial markets, and higher profit margins. This gives them a buffer to withstand economic shocks, such as a decline in demand during a recession or an increase in costs due to tariffs, better than smaller competitors, which often operate with more limited resources.
Large companies often benefit from economies of scale in procurement, production, and distribution. They can negotiate better terms with suppliers or have more diversified supply chains that are less susceptible to individual disruptions (such as tariffs targeting a specific country). They can also more easily pass on cost increases to prices due to their market power. On the other hand, globally operating companies, due to their complex supply chains and extensive international operations, may in certain situations be even more vulnerable to certain types of disruptions, such as geopolitical tensions or large-scale logistics problems.
When smaller competitors struggle or even go bankrupt as a result of disruptions, a dominant company can increase its market share either organically (customers move to a provider perceived as more stable) or inorganically.
Recessions and market disruptions can make smaller competitors attractive and more affordable acquisition targets. A dominant company can take advantage of the opportunity to further consolidate the market through acquisitions.
A company in a stronger financial position can continue strategic investments (e.g., R&D, marketing, technology) even during weak times, which can strengthen its competitive advantage in the long term, while smaller companies often have to cut their investments.
During uncertain times, customers (especially business customers) may prefer larger and more stable suppliers to minimize their own risks. This is the use of the term “Flight to Safety”, familiar to investors. For example, Costco acts as a reseller for Almost Heaven Sauna. Costco must be able to trust that the supplier’s delivery reliability will be maintained in all situations.
So, while the situation may offer opportunities to benefit, it must be remembered that in the long run, even a dominant company needs a healthy and functioning market to succeed. A significant and prolonged weakening of the market is not in anyone’s interest. Severe recessions or widespread tariffs hit the entire industry and can reduce overall demand so significantly that even a dominant company suffers in absolute terms, even if its relative position to competitors improves.
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Will the CEO’s review from the general meeting be made available for viewing afterwards, @Rauli_Juva? There was a webcast option via Videosync, though.
I can’t say for sure, but I believe and hope so, as it was last year too.
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