Tässä jälleen tosi hyvä koonti Q1 tuloksista:
Muutama pääkohta tiivistettynä:
Positives & Negatives
Positives:
- Growth accelerated despite seasonality and fuel price concerns
Coming into earnings, one of the biggest worries was the increase in fuel prices that would affect demand across the region. Yet, transport volumes were up +32% YoY in April.
GMV also came in much stronger than expected which led to a beat in top-line expectations.
- Operating leverage in action
Grab’s Adj. EBITDA margin increased from 13.7% to 16.2% YoY, which combined with GMV increasing 24% YoY led to a 46% increase in Adj. EBITDA.
This is classic operating leverage in action, and I believe we will start to see this increase exponentially in the months and years to come, especially as GFin turns profitable in H2 2026.
- Advertising is becoming a real profit lever
GrabAds is becoming a core profit driver for the business. Average spend of quarterly active advertisers on Grab’s self-serve platform had average spends grow 44% YoY.
GrabAds is vital for Grab because it can lift delivery margins without hurting consumers or drivers. It is similar to how advertising improved the economics of other marketplace businesses. (Think Amazon, DoorDash, Meituan)
- New product innovations are contributing to top and bottom line growth
Group orders for instance, grew by 74% YoY and has contributed significantly to deliveries growth. I discussed my take on new product innovations that were announced at Grab’s 2026 product day.
- The initial reaction to the 8% commission cap appears to be overblown
Grab discussed during the earnings call that it was only applicable to 2-wheelers, which represented just 6% of total mobility GMV. Using FY2025 numbers, and assuming a 12pp cut in take-rates, it would result in a $57M drop in annualised revenue or 1.7% haircut on the group’s top-line.
Negatives:
- Partner Incentives
It is never good to see partner incentives up 54% YoY. In this case, it was a necessary action to an unexpected event. In time, this will moderate, but it certainly affected the bottom-line, which led to a QoQ fall in net income.
- Fuel costs are likely to remain a headwind
Management repeatedly referred to elevated fuel costs and the regional fuel crisis. Grab is supporting drivers through fuel discounts, cashback, EV transition initiatives, and government subsidy coordination.
The risk is that if fuel costs stay high, Grab may eventually have to choose between three bad options: subsidise drivers more, raise consumer prices, or accept weaker supply. None are great for margins.
- Indonesia commission regulation sets a precedent and potential spillover effect
As I discussed in this piece, the worry of Indonesia’s policy, is that drivers in other Southeast Asian countries may push for similar caps. If it spreads to Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, or Singapore in modified form, the valuation impact could be much larger.
- GFin growth could be faster
Again, I believe Grab should be much more aggressive in growing its Financial Services business. It has to be a core growth driver that brings the group’s revenue growth closer to 30% as Monee is doing for Sea.
Grab’s management ultimately remains relatively conservative which is one of the largest drawbacks. I believe they do have shareholders’ interest at heart and are long-term thinkers, but to succeed and stake a strong claim on the financial services segment in the region, I do think they have to be more aggressive
Hopefully, they know how to execute capital allocation wisely 
