Gofore - Go for or No go?

In the current operating environment for similar companies, this could almost be called a partial bust when previous guidance is reiterated in a new form.

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The January-September interim report is hot off the press:

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There might be an error in last year’s September revenue figures @Emmi_Berlin1 ? Should it be 17.4 instead of 14.7? I was quite confused for a long time about where such organic growth suddenly came from.

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Huld’s impact 3.6M€.

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Thanks for this observation. Otherwise, it would have been quite a miserable September :grinning_face:

Thanks for the heads-up! We are just checking the comparison figures because of this.

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@Joni_Gronqvist: I understand today is Inderes’ busiest earnings day in history, with 7 results falling on the same day, so I got to fill in for Joni regarding Gofore’s earnings interview. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes: Here are Mikael Nylund’s comments on Q3 development and achieving long-term goals!

After an exceptionally difficult start to the year, Gofore managed to turn profitability around in Q3 thanks to adjustment measures taken in the spring, even though revenue was still organically declining from the comparison period. Gofore’s CEO Mikael Nylund comments on Q3 development and steps towards long-term goals in an interview with Tomi Valkeajärvi.

Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:13 Q3 Highlights
01:48 Drivers behind organic revenue development
03:37 500 MEUR revenue target by 2030
06:45 Profitability development
08:05 Prerequisites for a 15% EBITA margin in the long term
09:28 Market situation
13:07 Huld’s integration process
15:30 Outlook
18:05 Is anything bothering the CEO?

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If any questions come to mind about the earnings report or the company’s situation otherwise, as is my usual practice, I can try to answer them here on this forum.

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Joni and Frans have prepared a new company report. :slight_smile:

We lower our target price to 15.5 euros (previously 17.0 €) reflecting forecast changes and a recommendation to ‘reduce’ (previously ‘add’). Gofore’s revenue grew driven by an acquisition, and organic decline softened. Profitability, however, fell short of our expectations in Q3. The overall market situation has remained difficult and restricts the development of Gofore and the sector. We expect development to improve significantly in Q4, but profitability to remain at the very bottom of the guidance range. In the coming years, we expect the company’s performance to gradually improve and to be at the forefront of the sector, but there is still a way to go to reach historical levels. Due to the continued challenging market and uncertainty regarding next year, the stock’s valuation outlook has become neutral (2026e EV/EBIT 11x and P/E 14x).

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Gofore’s Q3/2025: Questions on Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Growth Realism

As a Gofore shareholder and a long-time follower of the company, I have compiled the following questions, aiming to increase transparency and strengthen my trust in the company’s excellent work.

Gofore is one of the success stories of Finnish digital consulting. Strong in its culture, expertise, and ethical operating practices. That is precisely why I believe the company is capable of openly addressing precise questions concerning its finances.

The questions below are based on the company’s own reported figures (Q3/2025, financial statements 2024, strategic targets) and established industry metrics that competitors also publish (e.g., revenue/FTE, utilization rate, billing level). They cannot be considered trade secrets, as they are derivable from public information.

1. Productivity per employee

According to the Q3/2025 report, revenue grew by approximately 5%, but headcount by 21%. This implies an estimated 10-12% decrease in revenue per own FTE.

How much of this change is due to Huld’s inclusion in September, i.e., what would be the revenue / FTE change without Huld’s impact in Q3/2025 compared to Q3/2024?

Additionally: what was the productivity change for the entire group (revenue / FTE, %) after Huld’s inclusion?

2. Huld’s Productivity Level and Integration Impact

Huld brought approximately 400 employees and €3.6 million in revenue in September, i.e., approximately €9,900/FTE/month. This is clearly below Gofore’s previous average.

By how much did Huld’s revenue/FTE differ from Gofore’s own Q3/2025 level in percentage terms, and by what timeline does the company estimate the productivity difference will equalize to the group’s average?

3. Capacity Utilization and Profitability

The company described Q3/2025 profitability as the best of the year, even though the customer price level slightly decreased. This suggests better utilization of free capacity.

What was the group’s estimated utilization rate range in Q3/2025 (e.g., 75-80%) and its change compared to Q2/2025?

How did the utilization rate in the DACH region develop in relation to the group, and in what range did it move (e.g., 65-75% or 75-85%)?

How much of Q3’s profitability improvement was due to the increase in utilization rate compared to the price level and changes in cost structure?

4. Synergies and Efficiency Impacts

The company guides for an EBITA level of 8-10% and targets 11-12%.

What is the monetary synergy potential (million euros) defined from Huld’s integration and other efficiency measures for 2026?

If a monetary amount cannot be provided, by how many percentage points is the margin expected to improve as a result of synergies in 2026?

As cost efficiency and synergy targets may affect the personnel structure, has the company assessed that the implementation of synergy and efficiency programs requires personnel impacts (for example, reorganization of tasks, reductions, or role changes), and by what timeline would potential impacts materialize?

This question is based solely on reported cost targets and does not require information related to individual employees.

5. Financing Capacity for Acquisitions

The company targets €500 million in revenue by 2030, of which at least half organically. This implies approximately €150 million in acquisition-driven growth.

Huld’s enterprise value was €54 million, of which approximately €37 million in cash.

What is the company’s current available financing capacity (M€) for new acquisitions without gearing exceeding 3× EBITDA, and how much of the €150 million acquisition target is currently covered?

6. Timeline of Integration Impacts

Huld’s integration is reported to be progressing as planned.

In which quarter (Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026) will the impact of Huld’s integration first become concretely visible in revenue/FTE and EBITA metrics, and what is its estimated magnitude?

7. Realism of the 2030 Target

The €500 million revenue target by 2030 implies approximately a 22% CAGR.

If half of the growth is organic, it requires 10-11% organic annual growth, even though the current has been negative.

What is management’s own estimate of the realistic organic growth range (min–max %) for the years 2026–2030 that strategic calculations use?

8. Customer Price Level and Pricing

According to the report, the customer price level decreased by 0.6% and revenue/FTE by approximately 4-5%.

What is the group’s average billing rate (€/h) and its change over the last 12 months?

How much of the change in revenue was due to the price level and how much to the utilization rate (as an estimate %)?

Finally

Gofore is a company that I, as an investor, follow not only for its financial figures, but also for its culture, openness, and responsible leadership.

Open discussion about these key figures strengthens the trust that has been at the core of Gofore’s success.

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It is clear that for this year we had planned organic growth, which did not materialize. I personally consider organic growth very important from the perspective of increasing shareholder value. On the other hand, it is not worth growing by force when growth would significantly and long-lastingly harm profitability.

When there are prerequisites for growth, one must be able to seize them boldly. Reading and reacting to such a situation requires good situational awareness, responsiveness, and elasticity from the organization. The coming years will show whether the path opens up as I, at least, expect, and how we will be able to tackle that challenge. I believe we will do well.

We have reported changes quarterly. Customer prices decreased by 0.6% over the last 12 months. The last average hourly rate I heard was somewhere around one hundred euros. We do not report it more officially, as it is easy to draw incorrect conclusions from it, given that we are a rather diverse organization in terms of both offering and geographical distribution. So please do not draw such conclusions after reading this!

Some kind of inflation is certainly a fact, meaning prices should naturally increase, not decrease.

But surely not a very large part of the decrease in revenue can be due to such a marginal decrease in prices, except of course through the fact that we have not sold cheaply enough to achieve growth.

It’s nice to hear that our work resonates in that way. Unfortunately, in this channel, I am the one speaking, so delving into details will remain somewhat incomplete. But we do strive to promote openness, and perhaps these questions will give us ideas for developing our reporting.

Thank you again for your questions.

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Gofore Plc’s business review for October 2025: October revenue 21.5 million euros. :backhand_index_pointing_down:

Gofore’s revenue was 21.5 (18.8) million euros in October 2025. The 12-month pro forma revenue was 214.4 million euros. At the end of October, the Group employed a total of 1,797 (1,472) people, excluding employees dismissed as a result of change negotiations.

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Joni gave his comments on Gofore’s October performance. :slight_smile:
Gofore reported its October figures yesterday. Revenue grew in line with our expectations, driven by the Huld acquisition. Organically, we estimate that revenue still decreased slightly. Capacity grew against our expectations, which is naturally positive. However, our calculated efficiency parameter was slightly weaker than expected. The company again reported a few new contracts, but overall, sales still appear to be slightly more cautious than expected.

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Below is a recent release regarding the resolution of Gofore’s dispute. :slight_smile:

Inside Information: Favorable Arbitration Award for Gofore in a Dispute with a Cooperation Partner

Inside Information: Gofore has today been informed of the arbitration court’s decision in a dispute between Gofore and its Nordic IT service company cooperation partner (”IT Company”), concerning the cooperation agreement between the parties for providing IT services to a client. According to the decision, Gofore will receive compensation totaling 3.1 million euros with accrued interest.

According to the cooperation agreement between Gofore and the IT Company, the IT Company provides services in cooperation with Gofore. The cooperation agreement remains in force.

In spring 2024, Gofore became aware that the IT Company had breached its agreement with Gofore. As the parties could not find an amicable solution to the matter, Gofore initiated an arbitration procedure against the IT Company in December 2024.

The arbitration court has today, 17 November 2025, issued a final award in the matter, in which the IT Company has been ordered to compensate Gofore for loss of business with damages amounting to 2.6 million euros. In addition to the compensation, the respondent will pay accrued interest, estimated at 0.3 million euros, and Gofore’s legal costs of 0.2 million euros.

Gofore will record the 3.1 million euro compensation in other operating income in the fourth quarter of the year, and it will have a positive impact on the 2025 operating profit.

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That’s a really weak reaction to that 3.1 million contract compensation. Tietoevry’s 24.5 million compensation moved the stock more, even though it was proportionally smaller, as TE is 10 times larger than Gofore.

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Here are also Joni’s comments on this recent “dispute news” :slight_smile:

Gofore announced yesterday evening that it had received a favorable arbitration award in a dispute with its cooperation partner. The company will receive a total of EUR 3.1 million in compensation, which will be recorded as other operating income in Q4’25. This is a positive surprise, which improves the company’s reported profit and cash flow for 2025, but in our view, it is a one-off item. We raised our 2025 forecasts following the news.

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It is worth noting that despite this news and a somewhat decreased share price, the recommendation remains negative.

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Of course, that sum is just over a percentage of Gofore’s market value, so should its recommendation really be changed much?

Not by itself, but together with the declining course, it might have even happened this way. But it didn’t. I won’t speculate further.

Thank you for your answers, Timur! I greatly appreciate the Chairman of the Board participating in the discussion so actively. It is a rare treat on the Helsinki Stock Exchange and strengthens confidence in the company’s open culture.

You mentioned that the question regarding the effects and timeline of the integration was difficult to grasp, so I will elaborate a bit on my back-of-the-napkin calculation, which I use as an investor to try and understand the performance of the new entity. Additionally, I would like to reflect Gofore’s current situation against a couple of classic theories of strategic growth.

1. Productivity difference per employee between Huld and Gofore

Based on the October business review and acquisition data, the figures look roughly like this:

  • Gofore (excluding Huld): Revenue per FTE was approximately 12,800 € / month in October.
  • Huld: Revenue per FTE was approximately 9,000 € / month, which is in line with Huld’s corresponding parameter for 2024.

The calculated difference is significant: Huld’s billing per expert is about 30% lower than in Gofore’s business. This currently dilutes the efficiency figures of the entire group.

My refined question is: Is this lower level (below 10k€/FTE) accepted as the “new normal” in this business (industrial R&D), or is the strategic goal to close this gap towards Gofore’s levels, for example, through cross-selling? The co-determination negotiations announced now focus on costs, but as an investor, I am interested in whether there is a prospect of increasing Huld’s top line, for example, during 2026?

2. Growth ceilings and strategic risk

Gofore is at a historical turning point where organic growth has stalled. Matthew Olson’s classic article “When Growth Stalls” (HBR, 2008) shows with data that when a strong growth company’s revenue stalls or turns to decline, in 87% of cases the reason is internal (e.g., strategy complexity or organizational model) rather than external market conditions.

Furthermore, Bain & Company’s study Barriers and Pathways to Sustainable Growth (2016) emphasizes that at a critical stage of scaling, organizational complexity often stifles growth (“Growth Paradox”). Gofore is now transitioning from a capability-driven organization to a customer-centric model while integrating a large acquisition.

Do you recognize the risk that organizational restructuring and integration simultaneously increase internal complexity so much that the initiation of organic growth is delayed despite market recovery?

How do you ensure that Gofore does not fall into the “stalling” spiral described by HBR, from which recovery has historically been difficult?

Thank you again for your openness and answers! I look forward to Gofore’s return to the path of earnings growth in 2026.

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You omit from that revenue per FTE comparison the fact that Huld also has much more than traditional software development. These business areas naturally also have lower salaries.

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