I guess that’s because they reported an oversubscription on Friday, but still allowed institutional subscriptions. Millionaires went and subscribed for tens of millions without looking into it further, and dumped the shares first thing in the morning.
In Framery’s IPO lottery, there was the nice feature that everyone was offered a fairly equal return, at least on the public offering side. ![]()
For quick profits, the size of the subscription didn’t matter much; the timing of sales had more impact. Some sold at almost nine and others close to eight, but everyone who sold at least made a profit.
The best return will probably come to those who have a bit more patience than selling on the first day.
It has seemed that quick-profit hunters were least familiar with the company and its products. In that case, they certainly don’t share the same view on where the stock price could be in the coming years as the business develops.
I, at least, intentionally kept my research to a minimum, because otherwise, the “hourly wage” would have been a bit too small. Of course, I’m happy to take a hundred-euro profit with just a few clicks – but I wouldn’t bother spending several evenings poring over the company’s figures and watching presentations for that.
And even though it’s extremely great that such companies are emerging in Finland, that business idea doesn’t particularly appeal to me: I want real offices with real rooms, not open-plan offices with cubicles!
Participating in a public offering as a long-term investor doesn’t really make sense to me. In this case, I would have had to buy 2-3 times what I received from the public offering on the stock exchange if I wanted to remain a long-term investor. I’d rather take a quick profit from the public offering and possibly a longer-term ownership in the company later.
Now that I’ve already sold my shares, I can mention that it’s a bit surprising that the investor of the year 2023 and investment author calculated Framery’s 2024 P/E ratio to be 21.5 with a share price of 8€. At that price, I would have kept mine and probably bought more today. Framery has, after all, progressed this year. The 2024 net profit was 19.566M€ and the market value was, as I understand it, 633.1M€ at the IPO. From this, we get a 2024 P/E of 32.4. Quite a big difference compared to Esa’s figure. Last year’s P/E ratio is not very relevant, but it undermines the entire analysis. It happens even in better circles.
I calculated it quite simply by estimating that Q4 would achieve 1/3 of what was achieved in Q1-Q3. In the first three quarters of the year, 17.186M€ was achieved. From this, the net profit in 2025 would be 17.186÷3×4=22.9M€, which would result in a P/E of 27.6. A bit salty for a dumpster diver like me, who winces already when buying a P/E 16 stock.
Edit: With yesterday’s price increase, the 2025 P/E ratio rose to 30.7 with the above forecasts. The accuracy of the forecast is not meant to be precise, but rather to provide some approximation. The dart is unlikely to hit the bullseye, but the aim is to at least hit the door to which the dartboard is attached.
Ahh, that must have been a classic case of me looking at the operating profit line again instead of calculating through net income. That would explain a discrepancy of that size, and it’s not the first time I’ve looked at them the wrong way around
Well, maybe I’ll forgive myself this time, as there was such a terrible rush to write the analysis due to the quick closing. Both are good since I got good Christmas gift money from this IPO quickly on the very first day anyway.
This is how I interpreted it myself. It’s quite comforting to hear, from the perspective of an ordinary person, that Pokémon masters and highly intelligent investors can make such simple mistakes and draw completely wrong conclusions from them. The schedule was indeed very tight, and everyone makes mistakes more easily when in a hurry (especially when children are also sharing this time). Sometimes, however, wrong interpretations are rewarded. It’s good that there was a profit and no one suffered a loss because of this either. Of course, everyone should calculate the numbers themselves and not outsource their thinking entirely, but I wonder how many did, as no one cheered earlier.
Hi!
Here for forum members is an Aamulehti article about Framery’s second founder, Vesa-Matti Marjamäki from Tampere. He is a somewhat lesser-known figure behind the company.
In the article, Marjamäki tells his entrepreneurial story and observations about the company’s work culture in its early years. Marjamäki still owns Framery, but has not been involved in daily operations for ten years. The article is available to Aamulehti subscribers.
Herlin’s money seems to have invested significantly in Framery (Mariatorp):
Here is Vesa’s tweet, familiar from the ‘Rookie Interviews’ thread, regarding Framery and Martela ![]()
Or is this astronomical market value primarily a sign of a bubble?
Framery is, however, clearly cheaper than Harvia based on valuation multiples. It’s highly likely that next spring Framery will have higher multiples than Harvia, and a P/E over 40 as well.
